302 FXUS65 KREV 250801 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 101 AM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Thunderstorm activity continues today through Sunday. Potential impacts include heavy downpours and flooding, strong outflows, small hail, and lightning. * Cooler than normal temperatures expected for the rest of the week and the weekend. * A gradual warming and drying trend returns early next week, bringing highs up to near or slightly above normal. && .DISCUSSION... With early cloud development yesterday around the Tahoe Basin, afternoon thunderstorm activity became more limited than previously forecasted. If similar conditions arise today, we could see limited activity again. However, as of now, the forecast remains on track to see an increase in thunderstorm coverage today. The Tahoe Basin (including Mineral and far N Mono counties), NE CA, and the Reno-Carson-Minden area will see a 45-65% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, starting as early as noon today. As the day progresses, and the closed low off the coast of California continues to track eastward, shower chances push further north into NE CA and N Washoe county. Like yesterday, the threats of heavy downpours, flooding, gusty outflows, small hail, and lightning continue. With almost 0.8 inches of PWAT, we definitely have the moisture for significant rain producers today. The chances for overnight showers continues again today, but has dwindled to a 15-20% chance. Like late last night, the main area of concern will be in the Tahoe Basin and Alpine county. As the aforementioned low tracks further inland, shower and thunderstorm chances shift further east, expanding into the Basin and Range Saturday. We`ll see similar chances as today (40-60%) with a 20-40% chance in the Basin and Range. Those in NE CA will have lesser chances as well with 30-50% chances forecasted. However, CAMs show that showers and thunderstorms will be kicking off sooner, possibly before noon, and wrapping up after sunset. As the low continues to take its time moving east, storms today and tomorrow will continue to be slow movers. This increases the risk for flooding, especially over recent burn scars. Shower chances decrease Sunday (15-20%). Temperatures continue to drop below normal through the weekend with another warming trend starting Monday. Drier conditions look to prevail through mid next week but another closed low on the horizon (late next week) could shake things up. Stay tuned as we get closer! -Giralte && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected for the majority of today, with possible MVFR conditions due to brief heavy downpours from afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The best time frame for these will be from 22Z-03Z. All terminals will have a 40-60% chance both today and tomorrow. The threat for lightning and gusty outflows continues overnight tonight, primarily for KTVL/KTRK/KMEV, albeit the lightning threat will decrease as we lose daytime heating. -Giralte && .FIRE WEATHER... Thunderstorm chances are expected each day through the weekend, with widespread coverage today through Saturday. Humidity shifts further eastward Saturday, bringing min RH values up to 20-35% for the Basin and Range. The best chances for dry lightning will be Sunday, however chances look to be isolated to the Tahoe Basin and the Reno-Carson-Minden area. Frequent lightning can be expected through Saturday. However, with heavy rain expected, this could hinder the development of new fires. Regardless, new ignitions due to lightning are possible away from rain cores. -Giralte && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$