449
FXUS66 KHNX 111006
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
206 AM PST Sat Jan 11 2025


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.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Dry conditions and near seasonable temperatures will prevail
this weekend through next week.

2. Widespread freezing temperatures are forecast across mainly
rural areas of the San Joaquin Valley Sunday morning through
Wednesday morning. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the
Central Valley during this time. There is a 30 to 90 percent
probability for low temperatures of 32 degrees or below.

3. Strong winds are forecast across the Kern County Desert on
Monday and Tuesday. There is up to a 75 percent chance for wind
gusts of 45 mph or higher along the Mojave Desert Slopes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current satellite imagery shows clear skies for the whole
region this morning. This, along with a cold, dry airmass aloft,
will lead to the patchy formation of frost for the rural areas
of the Valley through sunrise. There may be patchy mist this
morning, as well, though fog is not expected to form due to the
dryness of the air currently.

Later this afternoon, a cold front is expected to pass over the
southwestern CONUS. This will result in cooler high temperatures
compared to yesterday`s, as well as low temperatures dropping to
or going slightly below freezing. A Freeze Watch has been
issued for the Central San Joaquin Valley and is set to begin at
2 AM Sunday morning. These freezing lows are expected to
continue through Wednesday morning, with the Freeze Watch ending
at 9 AM that day. Frost formation is expected to be more
widespread during this time as well, simply due to the
consistent lows at or below freezing.

A shortwave trough is expected to drop down from western Canada
and cross California on Monday, leading to strong winds for the
Mojave Desert Slopes beginning that morning and continuing
through Tuesday evening, before calming down on Wednesday. This
shortwave trough will also keep a cold air mass over the Valley,
leading to the extended freezing low temperatures. The shortwave
trough will then be moved to the west by a growing ridge out in
the Pacific, with ridging beginning to influence Central
California on Thursday. This ridging is expected to lead to a
general increase in temperatures, pulling the Valley out of
freezing lows Thursday morning through next Saturday morning.

Looking at the long range forecast, another cold front
associated with an upper level trough may pass through the
southwest next Sunday, January 19th. This can be seen when
comparing the probability of freezing temperatures for next
Saturday and next Sunday. The first day has chances of 20 to 30
percent and the second day has 30 to 50 percent probability for
freezing lows. Dry conditions are still expected to persist for
at least the next week.

&&


.AVIATION...
12Z Update. Local MVFR conditions developing in mist/fog across
the San Joaquin Valley until 18Z this morning. VFR conditions
will otherwise prevail for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  01/10/2025 13:06
EXPIRES: 01/11/2025 23:59
On Saturday January 11 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera,
Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater
Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.



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.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
CAZ302-305-306-309>311-313-316.
&&

$$

Public/Aviation/Fire Weather....EW
DSS/PIO.........................VJP

weather.gov/hanford