353
FXUS66 KLOX 160709
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1209 AM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...15/1145 PM.

High pressure over the region will maintain very warm temperatures
through much of the coming week, especially away from the coast
and across the interior portions of the area. Gusty northerly
winds will develop once again tonight across southern Santa
Barbara County and through the Interstate 5 Corridor. A gradual
cooling trend will develop late in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...15/820 PM.

***UPDATE***

Today was the peak of the current heat wave, with highs in the mid
80s to around 104 away from the coast. A cooling trend is expected
for most areas, especially inland, with highs down anywhere from 2
to 7 degrees. Along the coast temperatures will be similar, to
around a degree cooler. Highs will remain stable into Tuesday,
followed by slight warming into Wednesday followed by gradual
cooling through late in the week.

Low clouds tonight will follow a similar pattern to last night,
spreading over the Santa Barbara portion of the Central Coast, and
across the LA Basin. Good clearing for all areas expected during
the afternoon hours.

Finally, there are gusty northerly winds across the Santa Barbara
South Coast and Santa Ynez Range. The western portion has had
gusts of 40 to 50 mph, but much weaker winds are noted across the
eastern portion. The wind advisory for western sections will be
allowed to persist through late tonight, but will need to reassess
the advisory for the eastern Santa Ynez Range in the next hour as
so far winds are below advisory levels.

***From Previous Discussion***

There will be a slight increase of onshore trends as well as
lowering heights on Monday, resulting in a little more low cloud
coverage (especially across the Central Coast and the LA south
coast). A cooling airmass and an earlier sea breeze will team up
to lower max temps by 3 to 6 degrees. Even with this cooling, most
max temps south of PT Conception will remain well above normal.
The only exception is the Santa Barbara south coast, where high
temps will be delayed to the evening and near 90 degrees (similar
to today) thanks to Sundowner winds.

Speaking of winds, the strongest north push will occur Monday
night with wind advisories continuing for SW SBA. Additional
advisories will likely be needed for the SE SBA coast, the I-5
corridor, and possibly for the Southern Salinas Valley, SBA
Interior Mountains, and Ventura County Mountains.

Weak troffing moves over the area on Tuesday. It does not look
like it will affect the weather that much. Marine layer stratus
coverage will be similar to Monday`s pattern. Max temps will not
change too much with the notable exception of the SBA south coast
where the lack of north flow will result in 8 to 12 degrees of
cooling.

On Wednesday, even though the GFS deterministic suggests a trough
will move through the area, all the LREF clusters and the ECMWF
suggest a quick, weak ridge of high pressure will build back in on
Wednesday (and this is what the official forecast goes with).
Though again, not much change in the weather is expected. A few
degrees of warming is expected over the interior areas, with a few
degrees of cooling on the coastal side of the mountains thanks to
increased onshore flow. High temps on Wednesday will generally be
3 to 6 degrees above normal with coastal highs mostly in the 70s
and valley highs in the 80s and lower 90s. Along with the increase
in onshore flow, the marine layer stratus will expand back into
the valleys south of SBA county, as well as along the Central
Coast.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...15/229 PM.

Not much excitement in the extended portion of the forecast. After
the ridge on Wednesday breaks down, weak troffing will follow
through the weekend and result in a slight cooling trend each day. By
Saturday most max temps will be 2 to 4 degrees below normal, with
upper 60s to mid 70s for the coastal sections, and mostly lower
and mid 80 degree readings in the valleys.

Look for a typical June night through morning low cloud pattern
to develop covering the coasts and most valleys. There will be
slow clearing across the valleys and especially the beaches, with
little to no clearing at several west facing beaches.

The strong onshore push to the east will bring gusty afternoon
southwesterly winds across interior sections, especially the
Antelope Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...16/0703Z.

At 0625Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 4100 ft with a temperature of 28 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, KVNY,
KPMD, and KWJF.

Low to moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. There is a 40%
chance for LIFR-IFR conditions developing at KSBP through 16Z
Mon. There is a 30% chance KLAX and KSMO remains VFR through the
period, and a 20% chance for KLGB.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance for VFR
conds to prevail through the period, otherwise arrival of cigs may
be as early as 10Z. THere is a 10-20% chance for brief LIFR
conditions around 13Z. There is a 15% chance an east wind
component reach 6 kts between 12Z and 17Z.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...15/839 PM.

High confidence in gusty northwest winds across the Outer Waters
and Inner Waters along the Central coast through the week. Lulls
in winds along the Central Coast are likely in the overnight and
early morning hours. A Gale Warning is in effect for the outer
waters from Monday afternoon through Tuesday night, and for the
northern inner waters for Monday afternoon/evening. Seas will
also approach 10 feet at times through the week. Gale force winds
will be possible again by the end of the week.

Gusty winds for western and southern portions of the Santa
Barbara Channel in the afternoon and evening hours appear likely
through Tuesday, with lower confidence thereafter. Lower
confidence in wind strength, and gale force gusts are possible
through the southwestern half of PZZ650. A short-lived Gale Watch
was issued for this zone for Monday evening, with less impacts
expected near Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Channel Islands Harbors.

Moderate confidence in conditions remaining below advisory levels
in the Inner Waters off the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts
through the week. However, localized WNW SCA level wind gusts may
occur in the afternoon and evening hours near Malibu and through
portions of the San Pedro Channel today and Monday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for zones
      349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT early this morning for
      zone 352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 3 AM PDT early this
      morning for zones 354-362-366-367. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT
      this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT early this
      morning for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from this afternoon through this evening
      for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lund/Ciliberti
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Phillips/Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox