565
FXUS66 KLOX 090309
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
809 PM PDT Sun Jun 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...08/108 PM.

Night through morning low clouds and fog will continue for the
next several days over the coast and valleys with slow, if any,
clearing at the coast. A warming trend will continue through the
middle of the week, mainly for inland areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...08/808 PM.

***UPDATE***

The marine inversion early this evening was around 1300 ft deep at
LAX (there was no sounding available from VBG). Low clouds were
along portions of the Central Coast and VTU/L.A. County coast
early this evening. These low clouds will expand along the coast
and push a bit inland overnight to some of the adjacent vlys.
Areas of fog with the low clouds will likely develop as well thru
the night. Otherwise and elsewhere, mostly clear skies will
prevail thru the overnight hours.

N-S pressure gradients have increased as expected across SBA
County this evening, with the SBA-SMX gradient -3.7 mb at 02Z.
This gradient is 2 mb more offshore to the N than 24 hours ago.
This northerly gradient has helped to bring strong and gusty
Sundowner winds to portions of the SBA County SW coast and
adjacent western Santa Ynez Mtns. Gusts up to 48 mph have already
been observed at the Refugio RAWS, and up to 37 mph at the
Gaviota RAWS. These winds will persist overnight before
diminishing late. As a result of these winds, a Wind Advisory has
been issued for this area until 3 AM late tonight. Gusty SW winds
to 40 mph will persist over parts of the Antelope Vly foothills
this evening. These will diminish overnight as well.

Issued a zone update this evening for the winds and to modify the
evening low cloud cover along the coast. Otherwise the current
forecast looks good.

***From Previous Discussion***

A typical June pattern continues across the region as a weak upper
low moves east into Arizona. Pressure gradients from the north
are increasing today as models has predicted so there will be a
slight bump in Sundowner winds across southwest Santa Barbara
County later this afternoon and evening to go along with the
typical daily southwest winds in and around the Antelope Valley.

With the upper low moving east there will be a slight rise in
heights/thicknesses the next couple days which should result in
2-4 degrees of warming inland each day through Tuesday. However, a
moderate to strong onshore flow will keep temperatures at
coastal areas steady with plenty of marine layer stratus well into
the afternoon. Little change or possibly a degree or two of
cooling is expected Wednesday as the ridge aloft starts to
weaken in response to an upper low moving into the eastern
Pacific.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...08/134 PM.

The inland cooling trend will continue through at least Friday and
likely into Saturday with most of the ensembles favoring a trough
along the West Coast. High temperatures are expected to be within
a few degrees of normal with typical morning (and for coastal
areas extending into the afternoon) marine layer and gusty onshore
winds across the interior in the afternoon.

Model consensus drops off later next weekend as models are mixed
on whether high pressure over Arizona will expand west in
California or if the more typical June trough pattern continues.
The latter would be the most likely outcome.

&&

.AVIATION...09/0057Z.

At 0027Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was 900 feet deep. The top
of the inversion was near 4500 feet with a temperature of 24
degrees Celsius.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Low confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, and KVNY. Arrival of cigs
may be off +/- 2 hours. There is a 30-40% chance KPRB remains VFR
through the period, and a 10-20% chance for KBUR and KVNY. If
cigs arrive, there is a 40% chance for LIFR cigs at KPRB.

Moderate confidence in the remaining TAFs. There is a chance for
no clearing at KOXR (40%), KCMA (20%), KSMO (30%), KLGB (30%) and
KLAX (40%). There is a 20% chance of no CIGs at KSBA. Otherwise,
arrival times of cigs may be off +/- 2 hours. Minimum flight cats
may be off by one cat once cigs arrive again tonight.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. The cat change to IFR may
be off +/- 2 hours, with a 20% chance conds remain MVFR. No east
wind component is expected.

KBUR...Low confidence in the 00Z TAF. Arrival time of cigs could
be +/- 2 hours of current forecast of 08Z. There is a 10-20%
chance that VFR conds prevail through the period.

&&

.MARINE...08/123 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Across
PZZ673/676, winds will increase to Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
levels today and remain at SCA levels through Thursday. For
PZZ670, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level through tonight,
then high confidence in winds increasing to SCA levels on Monday
and remaining at SCA levels through Thursday. Seas will increase
to SCA levels late in the week.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Monday, there is a
30-40% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening
hours. For Tuesday through Thursday, there is a 60-80% chance of
SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. Seas will
increase to SCA levels late in the week.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For the majority of the southern
Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below
SCA levels through Thursday. The only exception will be the
western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with a 70-80% chance of
SCA level winds through tonight, then a 30-50% chance of SCA
level winds Monday through Thursday, during the late afternoon and
evening hours.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones
      349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Sirard
AVIATION...Lewis/Ciliberti
MARINE...RAT/Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox