685
FXUS66 KSGX 140939
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
239 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warming through Sunday with highs increasing to around 10 degrees
above normal, then slow cooling through most of the week with
highs generally 5 degrees above normal through Wednesday and
closer to normal heading into the end of the week. The marine
layer will become more shallow with areas of low clouds and fog
mainly confined to the coast Sunday and Monday, then deepening and
spreading back into the western valleys the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Marine layer low clouds have spread into the western valleys this
morning and are trying to push into the far western and southern
portions of the Inland Empire. There was also a thin band of
cirrus moving northeasterly over the region. Low clouds will clear
inland by mid-morning, sticking at the beaches through the early
afternoon.

An upper level high over northern Mexico will build into the
Desert Southwest this weekend, bringing steady warming for inland
areas. Though the marine layer will become more shallow under this
strengthening ridge, moderate onshore flow will help moderate
temperatures west of the mountains, though locations in the Inland
Empire that are last to get the sea breeze will manage to warm
into the upper 90s by Sunday. Lower elevations of the Mojave
Desert are likely (80-100% chance) to see high temperatures of 100
degrees or more by Sunday, while the lower deserts have similar
chances of 110 degrees or more. HeatRisk in the inland valleys,
mountain foothills, and deserts will be Moderate, with locally
high HeatRisk in the low deserts on Sunday. Otherwise a
continuation of night and morning low clouds and patchy fog near
the coast through the weekend, though with patchier coverage for
Orange County and better daytime clearing.

Ensembles are in good agreement with the ridge weakening Monday
and Tuesday as a short wave trough moves inland across the West
Coast. This will bring a few degrees of cooling and a slight
deepening of the marine layer. The upper high rebuilds over
northern Baja and into So Cal on Wednesday, bringing brief
warming. An upper trough begins to amplify off the coast on
Thursday, slowly progressing westward as the low drops out of the
Gulf of Alaska and into the Pac Northwest. While there are some
differences in the timing of the progression of this trough and to
a far lesser extent the amplitude, the general consensus is for
cooling the remainder of the week, though these differences will
determine just how much cooling we see.

&&

.AVIATION...
140930Z....Coast/Valleys...Low clouds based around 900-1300 ft MSL
have filled in through 15 miles inland and are also nosing into the
far western and far southern portions of the Inland Empire. VIS
locally reduced 0-5 SM along higher coastal terrain and for some
inland valleys. Clearing by 15-16z this morning for inland areas and
17-19z for the coasts. SCT to occasionally BKN clouds may linger
along the beaches and immediate coasts through the afternoon.
Low clouds redevelop and push back ashore after 03z Sunday. Bases
will likely be lower, closer to 600-1000ft MSL with about 10-15
miles of inland extent.

Otherwise...FEW high clouds and unrestricted VIS prevails
through early Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected today through Wednesday.

&&

.BEACHES...

A 19 second, 3 ft southerly (190 degrees) swell arrives this
afternoon. This will lead to elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet by late
this evening/overnight, primarily for Orange County and northern San
Diego County beaches. A Beach Hazard Statement has been issued for
Saturday afternoon through late Sunday evening. The swell`s period
gradually shortens to 17 seconds by Sunday, with the overall swell
waning late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from 11 AM PDT this morning through
     Sunday evening for Orange County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Munyan