582 FXUS65 KPSR 252255 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 355 PM MST Fri Jul 25 2025 .UPDATE...Updated 00z Aviation Discussion... && .KEY MESSAGES... - Near normal temperatures will steadily warm slightly above normal by the beginning of next week, resulting in widespread Moderate HeatRisk. - Very dry conditions will greatly inhibit any rain chances through the weekend. - Monsoonal activity increases again across the region with a return of better moisture by early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/... Dry conditions and near normal temperatures continue to dominate our weather as a trough remains situated over the California coast. Dry southwesterly flow aloft associated with this trough continues to keep us unseasonably dry, keeping skies mostly clear across much of Arizona with no ongoing monsoonal showers and thunderstorms across the state. These very dry conditions are evident in this morning`s 12Z PHX sounding with a recorded PWAT of 0.44", while dew points this afternoon generally range between 20-30 degrees. Abnormally dry conditions will continue through the weekend, keeping rain chances out of the forecast for the entire area. Negative height anomalies will gradually give way to rising heights over the Desert Southwest as the aforementioned trough weakens and exits the region, while an upper level ridge over the eastern CONUS expands/retrogrades westward. Global ensembles shows 500 mb heights rising to around 590-593 dm by Sunday. Temperatures Saturday will see continued near normal readings before warming up near to slightly above seasonal normals Sunday as lower desert highs warm up to around 106-110 degrees. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/... Ensemble guidance for early next week continues to show the expansion and strengthening of the subtropical high over much of CONUS, with H5 heights increasing to around 590-595dm over the southwestern US. As the high pressure system strengthens overhead early next week, the mid-level flow will also switch from southwesterly to southeasterly, which will allow for an increase in moisture across the region. Ensembles show PWAT values going from around 0.5" on Sunday to around 0.7-0.9" on Monday. This increase in moisture will be enough to support some shower and storm development across the higher terrain to the east of Phoenix on Monday. Moisture will continue to increase across the region next week, with ensembles showing PWATs increasing to 1.3-1.5" across the area for the middle of next week. This further increase in moisture will lead to increasing shower and storm chances and allow for shower and storm chances to move back into portions of the lower deserts of south-central AZ, including the Phoenix Metro. Despite the increase in moisture, shower and storm chances remain only in the 10-35% for Tuesday-Friday across the lower deserts, with the best chances currently looking like Wednesday or Thursday. Overall, the pattern looks fairly favorable for increased shower and storm activity for the middle part of next week. With these increased thunderstorm chances expect the usual hazards of gusty winds, from both the thunderstorms themselves and any outflow boundaries they produce, localized heavy downpours, and areas of localized blowing dust. Temperatures on Monday are forecasted to be slightly above normal, with afternoon highs of 104-111 degrees. With the increased shower and storm chances, temperatures are then forecasted to return to near to slightly below normal for south-central AZ (100-107 degrees) and remain near to slightly above normal in SE CA and SW AZ (103-110 degrees) for the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...Updated at 2255Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation weather concerns under some passing mid to high level clouds are expected throughout the TAF period. The overall wind pattern will continue to exhibit the typical diurnal tendencies with speeds generally aob 10 kts along with some occasional afternoon/early evening gusts into the mid to upper teens. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major weather issues under mostly clear skies are expected throughout the TAF period. Winds at KIPL will stay out of the west while at KBLH winds will generally be out of the south to southwest. Wind gusts upwards of 20-25 kts will persist through the evening hours. KIPL could potentially see temporary gusts near 30 kts early in the evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Very dry conditions will continue into through the weekend. Temperatures will gradually warm from near normal today to slightly above normal by the end of the weekend/beginning of next week. MinRHs will be in the 5-10% range through the weekend. On Monday, a slight increase in moisture will have minRHs increase to 15-25% in the higher terrain in the eastern district, whereas elsewhere minRHs will generally be less than 15%. MinRHs will steadily increase to 15-30% across the area during the middle of next week. With the increase in moisture next week there will also be increasing shower and storm chances. With chances relegated to the higher terrain on Monday and spreading to the lower deserts during the middle of next week. Winds will tend to follow their typical diurnal tendencies with the usual afternoon upslope gustiness. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...Berislavich AVIATION...Lojero/Whittock FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich