987
FXUS66 KLOX 030112 AAA
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
612 PM PDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Updated aviation section

.SYNOPSIS...02/337 PM.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and
evening, focused across the mountains and deserts. Otherwise, a
June gloom pattern will prevail through this weekend with a slow
warming trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...02/206 PM.

Relatively quiet and typical June weather will continue through
tonight filled with low clouds at the coast and breezy onshore
winds. Fairly widespread drizzle is possible west of the mountains
tonight due to a deepening marine layer and late season storm
approaching from the northwest.

The storm will pass nearby just to our southwest on Tuesday and
absorb enough leftover moisture from our storm that departed over
the weekend to support a 10-30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms mainly between 2 pm and 9 pm from Santa Barbara
County and south with the highest chances focused over the
mountains and deserts. Some of these storms may become strong with
damaging wind (50+ mph), dry lighting with fire starts, and local
flash flooding due to heavy rain (peak rainfall rates to around
0.75 inches per hour) the main threats. There is a small chance of
significant flash flooding or debris flows at the Bridge (5-10
percent chance) and to a lesser extent the Eaton (less than 5
percent chance) burn Scars with all other burn scars near zero
threat. Many areas will see little if any rainfall. Lightning can
strike well outside of thunderstorms (sometimes 10+ miles away!) -
if you hear thunder you are at risk - please consider taking
shelter!

The system quickly departs to the east by Wednesday with only
about a 10 percent chance of a residual shower or thunderstorm in
the mountains and deserts, mainly in LA County. If we do have a
fair amount of showers or thunderstorms across the area Tuesday,
lingering mid to high clouds may dismantle the normally dependent
marine layer clouds into Wednesday, especially near LA County.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...02/206 PM.

A building ridge will likely bring a return to above normal
temperatures by this weekend with the marine layer and associated
night to morning low clouds likely becoming squashed to near the
coast, sheltering these areas from the worst of the heat. Triple
digit heat is possible for the hottest inland valleys with
widespread highs in the 80s and 90s in play for other areas away
from the coast. Consider making appropriate preparations if
planning on being outdoors this weekend. Otherwise more June-like
weather this weekend with breezy onshore winds with no additional
showers or thunderstorms expected.

&&

.AVIATION...03/0111Z.

Around 2340Z, the marine layer depth was around 1100 feet deep at
KLAX. The top of the marine inversion was near 2200 feet with
a temperature around 18 degrees Celsius.

High confidence in the current forecast for desert terminals,
otherwise moderate confidence in all remaining terminals. Flight
categories could one category off. Timing of category changes
could be off by up to two to three hours. There is a high-to-
likely (40-60 percent) chance of LIFR to IFR conditions in
drizzle between 10Z and 16Z at most terminals. After 19Z, there
is a low-to-moderate (10-30 percent) chance of showers and
thunderstorms at Los Angeles County terminals.

KLAX...MVFR conditions will spread into KLAX as soon as 02Z, or
as late as 04Z. There is a 60 percent chance of IFR conditions in
drizzle between 10Z and 17Z. VFR conditions could develop as
soon as 19Z, or as late as 21Z. There is a 20 percent chance of
thunderstorms after 20Z, possibly producing gusty and erratic
winds and/or brief heavy downpours.

KBUR...MVFR conditions will spread into KBUR as soon as 05Z, or
as late as 10Z. There is a 60 percent chance of IFR conditions in
drizzle between 10Z and 17Z. VFR conditions could develop as soon
as 16Z, or as late as 20Z. There is a 20 percent chance of
thunderstorms after 20Z, possibly producing gusty and erratic
winds and/or brief heavy downpours.

&&

.MARINE...02/1238 PM.

For the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level seas of 10
feet will continue in the central and northern zones tonight.
There is a 40% chance for SCA seas in the southern waters through
tonight. Otherwise, conditions look to remain below advisory
criteria through the week, with the exception of a 30% chance for
SCA winds from Point Conception south to San Nicolas Island
Tuesday afternoon and evening.

For the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, high confidence
in conditions remaining below SCA criteria through the week.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, high confidence in conditions
remaining below SCA criteria through the week, however, there is
a chance (30%) for winds to approach SCA levels Tuesday afternoon
and evening in the western portion.

For the Inner Waters off the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts,
high confidence in conditions remaining below SCA levels through
the week. However, there is a chance (20%) for winds to near SCA
levels Tuesday afternoon and evening near Malibu and the southern
coast of the Palos Verdes Peninsula.

An approaching upper level low pressure system entering the region
will bring a 15% chance of thunderstorms across the waters south
of Point Conception Tuesday mid-day through late night. Any
thunderstorm could produce gusty and erratic winds, lightning,
heavy downpours, and hail.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday afternoon
      for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...RM/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox