724
FXUS65 KVEF 110157
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
657 PM PDT Thu Apr 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Record or near-record heat continues through Saturday.
Gusty winds and some temperature relief arrive this weekend as a
system passes to our north. Above-normal temperatures linger next
week as dry, breezy conditions prevail.
&&
.UPDATE....UPDATE...It was very warm again today- Las Vegas and
Desert Rock, NV both set or tied new record high temperatures this
afternoon. Across the region, afternoon high temperatures rose 15-20
degrees above normal. Above the surface, scattered clouds drifted
into San Bernardino and Clark counties ahead of a shortwave moving
into northern California. These clouds were very high based, the 00Z
Las Vegas sounding showed very little moisture below 400mb. These
clouds will continue to stream into the region through the early
overnight, but no precipitation is expected. Winds will be light as
any light breezes in the Southern Great Basin will drop off by
sunset. Overnight lows will be warmer than last night as abundant
cloud cover should trap in the daytime heating. No significant
changes were needed for the overnight forecast with quiet weather
prevailing.
-Nickerson-
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...345 PM PDT Thu Apr 10 2025
.SHORT TERM...through Friday.
Our upper-level ridge continues to build, reaching its peak
amplitude today. This will drive temperatures up a few more degrees
from yesterday, with highs in upper 80s to upper 90s across the
Mojave Desert and upper 70s to mid-80s in the southern Great Basin.
Here in Vegas, we`ll likely (90% chance) break our daily high
temperature record of 91 degrees set in 2014.
Tomorrow, a shortwave moving into the PacNW begins to shunt the
ridge off to our east. Enhanced vertical mixing via breezy southwest
winds induced by the approaching system will more than offset the
500mb height falls, culminating in a peak in temperatures on Friday.
Locations in the lower Colorado River Valley will likely see their
first 100s of the season while we top out in the mid to upper 90s in
Vegas. Records will be challenged or broken in Las Vegas, Bishop,
and Needles. Wind gusts on Friday should peak between 15 and 25 mph,
so not expecting any impacts in that regard.
While these temperature values pale in comparison to what we see in
the summer, this heat can still be dangerous. Forecast temperatures
today and Friday result in widespread minor HeatRisk with most
locations below 2000 feet seeing moderate HeatRisk. This heat is
most impactful to individuals sensitive to heat, particularly those
without access to adequate cooling/hydration. However, with limited
exposure to temperatures of this magnitude this season, it`s still
possible for folks with regular heat tolerances to get caught off
guard.
.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday.
After several unseasonably hot days, a gradual cooling trend will
begin Saturday, continuing into early next week. This cooling trend
will be facilitated by a shortwave that will translate eastward from
the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, shunting the high
amplitude ridge eastward, and producing a transition to quasi-zonal
flow aloft over southeastern California, southern Nevada, and
northwestern Arizona. While falling heights will yield cooler
temperatures, the temperatures will only fall around 2-4 degrees
each day Saturday through Tuesday, remaining well above normal for
early April, still expected to generally top out in the 60s in the
mountains and the 70s to lower 90s across lower elevations.
Unfortunately, given the shortwave`s northern track, no
precipitation is expected with this system, though there will be an
uptick in winds, especially on Saturday as the pressure gradient
tightens across the region. Currently, ensembles continue to point
toward a corridor of strongest winds located roughly along I-15,
where there is a 40-80% chance of wind gusts to reach or exceed 40
mph for a few hours Saturday afternoon. This will bear watching as
the weekend gets closer, as the speed and depth of the shortwave
will greatly impact the intensity and duration of the winds, which
currently look to diminish quickly Saturday night into Sunday.
In the wake of the shortwave, the aforementioned quasi-zonal flow
aloft will maintain the cooling trend into Monday, though ensembles
and cluster analyses diverge somewhat thereafter in the handling of
the upper pattern. There looks to be some semblance of shortwave
ridging Tuesday into Wednesday that will bring the cooling trend to
an end, though a southern stream low/cutoff trough off of the
southern California Coast and its evolution remains in question.
This low, as well as the strength and amplitude of the ridge will
dictate temperature trends next week, but regardless, dry conditions
and above normal temperatures look to continue for the duration.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...
Light winds will prevail into this evening with winds shifting to
the southwest after sunset. Speeds will generally remain around 7
kts or less. Light winds Friday morning are expected to become
southeast briefly between 19z-22z with speeds around 7-8 kts. After
22z, southwest winds will increase to around 10-12 kts with
occasional gusts reaching 20 kts at times. SCT-BKN high clouds
through Friday.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Winds will generally be
10 kts or less across the region overnight and through mid-morning
Friday. Winds in the Las Vegas Valley are expected to become
southeast briefly between 19z-22z with speeds around 7-9 kts before
shifting to the south and southwest after 22z with speeds between 10-
20 kts. Winds at KBIH will be southerly early this evening then
becoming northwest around 7 kts overnight. Light winds Friday
morning will then become south after 22z with gusts up to 20 kts at
times. Winds in the Colorado River Valley will remain under 10 kts
through 22z Friday and then increase out of the south with speeds
around 10-15 kts. Winds at KDAG will also remain less than 10 kts
through mid-afternoon Friday with southwest winds then increasing
late afternoon 10-20 kts. SCT-BKN high clouds.
&&
.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature within 3 degrees of the daily record.
The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).
MAX THU, APR 10 FRI, APR 11
Record (Yr) Record (Yr)
Las Vegas 91 (2014)* 93 (2023)*
Bishop 91 (1989) 86 (2018)*
Needles 103 (1989) 102 (1936)*
Daggett 99 (1989) 93 (2014)*
Kingman 91 (1907)* 96 (1936)
Desert Rock 91 (1989)* 87 (2014)*
Death Valley 110 (1989) 108 (1989)
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Woods
LONG TERM...Phillipson
AVIATION...Gorelow
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