860
FXUS66 KSTO 112001
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
101 PM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad zonal flow across NorCal for the next few days, leading to
seasonable temperatures and breezy onshore flow. Ensembles
continue to depict weak troughing arriving this weekend, leading
to slightly lower heights and cooler highs over the weekend. Early
next week, troughing moves into the Four Corners region and on
Tuesday areas of breezy north winds may develop, especially in the
northern/central Sacramento Valley with continued onshore flow in
the Delta and vicinity. Warming high temperatures by Tuesday will
also introduce areas of Moderate HeatRisk in the northern
Sacramento Valley, followed by widespread Moderate HeatRisk for
the rest of the area on Wednesday. &&

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Today:

 -Slightly cooler high temperatures across the region today.

 --Probability of Valley High Temperatures > 90F:
  ---Northern/Central Sacramento Valley: 50-80%
  ---Delta, S. Sacramento Valley, N. San Joaquin Valley: 10-40%

 -Breezy onshore flow, strongest in the Delta and vicinity during
  the afternoon and evening.

* Thursday-Next Monday:

 -Gradual cooling trend expected through the remainder of the
  week. Primarily Minor HeatRisk as temperatures become more
  seasonable.

 -Probability of Valley High Temperatures > 90F:
  --Northern/Central Sacramento Valley: 60-90% Thu, 30-60% Fri-
   Mon
  --Delta, S. Sacramento Valley, N. San Joaquin Valley: 50-80% Thu,
   20-40% Fri-Mon

 -Onshore flow expected to persist with periods of breezy winds,
  mainly in the afternoons and evenings and strongest across the
  Delta and vicinity.

* Tuesday:

 - Temperatures begin to warm with triple digit heat in the
   northern Sacramento Valley; low to mid 90s in other Valley
   locations.

 - Periods of breezy north winds possible, mainly in the northern
   Sacramento Valley Tuesday morning/early afternoon as trough is
   expected to translate eastward.

 - Still some ensemble inconsistencies regarding trough`s
   location/strength early next week.

.Changes from previous forecast...
 -No notable forecast changes since last update.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected at Valley TAF sites next 24 hours.
Surface winds generally below 12 kts, although gusts 15-20 kts
expected through Delta and vicinity 21z today through 12z
Thursday.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$