788
FXUS66 KLOX 211145
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
445 AM PDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Updated Aviation Section

.SYNOPSIS...21/158 AM.

A cooling trend will continue through today as low pressure
develops along the West Coast, along with increasing night through
morning low clouds and fog. Gusty northerly winds will continue
across southern Santa Barbara County, the Interstate 5 Corridor
and other interior areas through early Sunday. A warming trend for
inland areas is expected to begin Sunday but below normal
temperatures are expected to continue into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...21/225 AM.

Strong north to northwest winds continue across portions of the
area early this morning, especially southern Santa Barbara County
and the I5 corridor, and the Santa Lucia range in SLO County.
Expecting this to continue through Sunday evening before an upper
low moves into Central California. In the meantime, winds gusting
to 35-50 mph are likely in those areas with isolated gusts to 60
mph possible creating fire weather concerns due to low humidities
as well. Strong winds are also continuing over the outer coastal
waters with gusts to 50 mph.

Outside of those areas, weather impacts are relatively low.
Temperatures will cool a few more degrees today, keeping highs
below 80 in most valleys and 60s to low 70s elsewhere. Low clouds
are expanding northwest across LA and Ventura Counties this
morning with tops around 2500 feet.

A brief warm up is expected Sunday and Monday as onshore flow
weakens by around 5mb and the marine layer depth lowers by 1000
feet or so. Highs inland expected to warm about 10 degrees from
Saturday while coastal areas pick up 1-3 degrees. Even with this
warmup, highs are still expected to be 3-6 degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...21/231 AM.

Weak high pressure is expected to return Wed through the end of
the week that will bring temperatures back to near or even
slightly above normal. Not expecting any strong winds during the
period except for the typical Antelope Valley breezes each
afternoon. Overall very seasonable weather next week that will
likely carry into the following week.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1144Z.

At 11Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3200 feet deep with an
inversion top at 5500 feet with a temperature of 19 Celsius.

Moderate confidence in flight category forecast and timing.
Low confidence on winds at KWJF KPMD KSBA as nearby mountain wave
activity could surface strong winds at any time through the
period. Expected LLWS issues when winds are lighter at the
airport.

KLAX...High confidence in ceilings staying above 025. Clearing to
VFR could happen as early as 16Z or as late as 19Z. Southeast
winds likely through 17Z, with a 50% chance of exceeding 8 knots
at times.

KBUR...High confidence in ceilings staying above 015. Clearing to
VFR could happen as early as 14Z or as late as 18Z. There is a 30%
chance of northwest surface wind gusts or LLWS to 20 knots
possible Sat 03-09Z.

&&

.MARINE...21/158 AM.

***HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY***

High confidence in prolonged and strong Gale Force northwest
winds beyond 20 miles from shore through Saturday night, strongest
of the whole event on Saturday. While Gale gusts have not
materialized so far for the nearshore Central Coast waters and
western Santa Barbara Channel, the Saturday peak is more
pronounced with the highest risk of the week. Some projections
even push the winds very close to the Ventura Coast. As such, will
hoist one more Gale Warnings for those areas. All waters will see
building and hazardously steep short period seas. While winds
will likely not reach Small Craft Advisory (SCA) off Los Angeles
and Orange Counties, a SCA is in effect for what should the the
steepest seas on Saturday. Small craft should stay in safe
harbor, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

High confidence in lowering winds and subsiding seas for the first
half of next week, with abnormally large high tides each evening.
High-end SCA winds are still likely for the waters beyond 20
miles for shore on Monday, but winds will lower to more seasonal
speeds by Tuesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for
      zone 345. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 350-356-382-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 352-353-376>378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning remains in effect from 3 PM this afternoon
      to 5 AM PDT Sunday for zones 352-353-376>378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Fire Weather Watch in effect from 1 PM PDT this afternoon
      through late tonight for zone 352. (See LAXRFWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 AM
      PDT Sunday for zones 353-376>378-381-383. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT
      Sunday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 5
      AM PDT Sunday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Kittell
MARINE...RK
SYNOPSIS...MW/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox