429
FXUS66 KLOX 191807
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1107 AM PDT Thu Jun 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...19/256 AM.
A cooling trend will begin today and continue through Saturday as
low pressure develops along the West Coast. Increasing night and
morning low clouds and fog are expected as well. Gusty northerly
winds are expected across southern Santa Barbara County and
through the Interstate 5 Corridor for the next several nights.
Below normal temperatures are expected next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...19/858 AM.
***UPDATE***
The marine inversion this morning ranged from near 900 ft deep at
VBG to near 2200 ft deep at LAX. Extensive low clouds covered the
coast and vlys of VTU/L.A. Counties earlier this morning, as well
as the SBA County S coast and portions of the Central Coast. The
low clouds were already starting to clear back to the coast at mid
morning, and should clear away from the coast before midday,
altho may linger for a while into early this afternoon for the SBA
S coast beaches. Otherwise and elsewhere, sunny skies will
prevail through this afternoon.
There will be a rapid increase in onshore pressure gradients to
the N and E today, with the NAM fcst LAX-DAG gradient topping out
around 9.7 mb at 00Z this afternoon, while the LAX-BFL gradient
reaches 5.7 mb at that time. These onshore gradients will help to
bring gusty NW winds to the Central Coast and SW SBA County by mid
to late this afternoon, as well as gusty W-NW winds from the I-5
Corridor of NW L.A. County to the Antelope Vly. Winds gusts are
expected to reach Advisory levels for SW SBA County and a Wind
Advisory is in effect there starting at 4 PM. Breezy to gusty SW-
NW winds will affect many other areas this afternoon as well.
Temps today will turn several degrees cooler in all areas
compared to the last few days, but remain 4-8 deg above normal for
most areas, except dropping to a few deg below normal for the
Central Coast into the Santa Ynez Vly. The warmest vlys and lower
mtns today should reach the mid 80s to mid 90s, except around 100
for the Antelope vly.
***From Previous Discussion***
With high pressure aloft getting pushed east by a low pressure
system over the Pac NW, temperatures will be cooling down several
degrees across most areas through Saturday except for the
immediate coast. Expecting highs today to drop about 5 degrees
today and an additional 10 degrees Friday with low clouds starting
to work their way into the coastal valleys.
The other weather factor the next couple days will be the return
of gusty Sundowner winds tonight and again Friday night after a
brief one day respite. The strongest winds will be Friday night
into early Saturday morning when SMX-SBA gradients get close to
-5mb. Could see wind gusts close to 55mph during that time with
strong Gale winds across the adjacent coastal waters and Channel
Islands as well.
.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...19/329 AM.
An upper level trough pattern is expected to continue at least
through early next week keeping temperatures a few degrees below
normal for the coast and as much as 5-10 degrees below normal for
inland areas. Low clouds and fog will push well into the coastal
valleys overnight with slower than usual clearing at the beaches.
May even have some patchy drizzle at times in the early morning
hours. A warming trend is expected to begin Wednesday as high
pressure begins to expand from the eastern Pacific.
&&
.AVIATION...19/1806Z.
At 1741Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 5000 feet with a temperature of 23 Celsius.
High confidence in VFR TAFs at KPRB, KPMD, and KWJF.
Low to moderate confidence in remainder of TAFs. Timing of flight
cat changes could be off by +/- 3 hours. There is a 40% chance of
IFR-MVFR cigs at KSBA, KCMA, and KOXR after 10Z Fri.
LLWS 10-20 knots possible at KSBA Friday 01-08Z.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance of a
brief BKN010 22Z Thu - 01Z Fri. Timing of return of cigs tonight
could be off by +/- 3 hours. Southeast winds will be prevalent
12Z-17Z Fri, with a 20% chance of exceeding 8 knots.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes
could be off by +/- 3 hours, with a 20% chance of no cigs tonight.
&&
.MARINE...19/816 AM.
Southeast winds will impact the nearshore waters south of Point
Conception through this morning, up to around 15 knots in the
passages and channels.
***HAZARDOUS SEAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY***
High confidence in prolonged upper-end Gale Force northwest winds
beyond 20 miles from shore from late this afternoon through
Saturday night. Moderate confidence in gusts of 30 to 35 knots
impacting the nearshore Central Coast waters and western Santa
Barbara Channel each afternoon and evening during this stretch.
All waters will see building and hazardously steep short period
seas. Small craft should stay in safe harbor, especially in the
afternoon and evening hours.
High confidence in lowering winds and subsiding seas for the first
half of next week, with abnormally large high tides each evening.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 4 PM this afternoon to 9
AM PDT Friday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT Friday for zones
381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
for zones 645-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 6
PM PDT this evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to midnight PDT
tonight for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
Sunday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW/Sirard
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...RK/Lund
SYNOPSIS...MW
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox