281
FXUS66 KMTR 110951
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
251 AM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 247 AM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Daily pattern of the return of marine layer clouds overnight
through the morning hours, some coastal drizzle, and breezy
afternoon onshore winds continues. Temperatures remain in the
upper 50s and into the 60s at the coast, the 70 to 80s for areas
more inland, and into the 90s for the far interior.



&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 247 AM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025

The marine stratus push isn`t as widespread as previous nights, but
the coast and favored valleys are still seeing plenty of cloud
cover. The expansion of the marine layer allowed for clouds to be
slightly less lower than previous days, and less pockets of fog.
Short term models are hinting earlier clearing than the last few
days for the North Bay Valleys and the Salinas Valley and less
coastal drizzle chances to start the day.

Some fine-tuning was done on todays temperatures, which are trending
overall cooler than yesterday, but only by a few degrees in the
interior areas, and just barely along the coast. Today is setting up
to be one of the cooler days of the forecast, with a slight short
wave trough enhancing the onshore flow.

Cloud cover will be slower to build inland this evening, with less
overall coverage than this morning, but the coastal cloud cover will
still be strong.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025

The reduced cloud cover will allow for earlier clearing for all but
the immediate coast on Thursday morning. This will also lead to
warmer temperatures for the the areas that are slightly inland, but
not some much for the interior areas that haven`t been seeing cloud
cover for the last few days.

The persistent zonal pattern aloft will keep the onshore flow going
through much of the forecast, with temperatures mostly being
affected by how much and how persistent cloud cover is each day. A
little less cloud cover for Friday, then a little more for Saturday.
But the variations in day to day temperatures still don`t look to be
terribly drastic. The difference between the immediate coast and
inland areas, however, will still be interesting to say the least
with some potions of the coast sticking to the upper 50s and the
interior areas peaking in the 90s.

The flow does change slightly in the late weekend and into the next
work week as a trough enters the area. The reduction in pressure
from the trough will cause the marine layer to deepen, and lead to
more moisture movement inland. It will also allow some cooling for
the more interior areas, but only slight cooling.

The big question is the speed at which the trough exits and what
happens after. Long-term model agreement seems to be falling apart
into the next work week as some models point to the trough exiting
Monday and going back to zonal flow, while others keep the trough
around for a few days. Some even snap quickly to a ridge pattern,
calling for another warming and drying trend in the mid week. This
will be something to keep an eye on as models continue to try to
figure this on out, be sure to keep checking back in!



&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1001 PM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Stratus beginning to build inland this evening, expected to continue
through the night and continuing through Wednesday morning, with
inland clearing through the afternoon. Have opted to continue with a
generally persistent forecast for the terminals as the daily
patterns have remained rather consistent. If the marine layer does
compress at any point, less stratus intrusion inland and earlier
clearing times Wednesday morning would be the result. MVFR-IFR
conditions are generally expected through the night with some LIFR
ceilings possible at the immediate coast. Inland terminals will be
the first to clear Wednesday morning, followed by the North Bay.
Wednesday evening, lower confidence in stratus at the North Bay
terminals as high resolution models hold off on stratus formation.

Vicinity of SFO... MVFR-IFR stratus through the overnight period.
Westerly winds remain breezy and gusty through the evening hours,
with gusts abating overnight before picking up again Wednesday
afternoon. Moderate confidence in a period of scattering at the
terminal sometime between 18-00Z Wednesday, with stratus returning
sometime afterward. Confidence is low in the exact timing of
stratus, and the SCT group starting at 03Z Wednesday evening
accounts for the possibility for the terminal to sit on the edge of
the stratus flow through the Golden Gate. In any case, high
confidence for a stratus ceiling at the terminal by 09Z Thursday.

SFO Bridge Approach... Approach path remains clear for a couple more
hours, although stratus over the terminal is likely precluding
visual approaches. For Wednesday morning, higher confidence that the
approach path clears before the terminal does, with westerly flow
potentially keeping a stratus feed right at the edge of SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... IFR stratus at the terminals dropping to
LIFR sometime overnight. Highest confidence for clearing stratus
Wednesday morning along the northern side of the Monterey Bay.
Moderate confidence for clearing at SNS with lower confidence for
the exact timing, as high resolution models suggest an earlier
clearing time than a persistence forecast. Lower confidence for the
clearing of stratus at MRY, with the most likely outcome being a
temporary scattering sometime between 20-02Z. Low to moderate
confidence of SNS getting a ceiling before the end of the TAF
period, with high resolution modeling suggesting a stratus deck
remaining just to the north of the terminal for a few hours before
building southward.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM PDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes will prevail through the
week with gale force gusts developing in the afternoons along the
coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and Point Sur. Moderate to
rough seas will prevail through the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for SF Bay N of Bay
     Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday
     for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Friday
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-
     60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Murdock
LONG TERM....Murdock
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...Sarment

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea