409 FXUS66 KMTR 141148 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 448 AM PDT Mon Apr 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 308 AM PDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Quiet weather continues and above normal temperatures today. A pattern change begins Tuesday, allowing temperatures to peak around their seasonal average. A cooling trend is forecast for mid to late week, with a warming trend returning for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 308 AM PDT Mon Apr 14 2025 High pressure will lead to another warm and dry day today, with high temperatures being about 5 to 15 degrees above normal. Ended up reviewing yesterday`s forecast and using that as a starting point for today, which puts widespread 70s across the region, with low 80s being realized for interior valleys. Along the immediate coast, the upper 50s to 60s should be realized. Minor Heatrisk is forecast for much of the region, which means this type of heat primarily affects individuals extremely sensitive to heat, especially when outdoors without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 308 AM PDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Little to no change in the extended forecast. A pattern change begins Tuesday, with an upper level low gradually moving into and across southern CA. This will lead to a decrease in temperatures through the end of the week. The main question remains, will we get any sort of precipitation out of this, and in particular thunderstorms? The signal still shows the opportunity for an unstable atmosphere, with favor now leaning towards Wednesday. So much so that the SPC has places a general risk of thunder along our portion of the southern Coastal Range. Would like to see a touch more in terms of agreement in the models and ensembles before adding thunder to our forecast locally before adding the mention of thunder in our forecast. But, given what was seen tonight in terms of data, agree with the general area that was highlighted should models come into even more agreement. Beyond that, dry weather looks to be on tap. With a warming and drying trend expected for the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 433 AM PDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Increasing cloudiness along the coast areas this morning, resulting in localized IFR/LIFR cigs, and some dense FG. High confidence in VFR through midday for areas away from the coast. Expecting marine stratus to linger near the coast, where terminals such as KHAF may teeter on the border of SCT and BKN all day. Clear skies this afternoon followed by increasing cloudiness as a weak upper level system moves into the region. Expecting another round of potential IFR cigs for coastal and Bay Area terminals tonight, but confidence is much lower due to the effects of the upper level disturbance. Will undoubtedly see increasing mid-level clouds, however. Vicinity of SFO...Limited potential for marine stratus creeping in this morning, but overall should stay mostly clear of the airfield. VFR through this afternoon, then increasing cloudiness this evening and overnight. Confidence is lower than normal for IFR cigs early Tuesday morning thanks to the weak upper level disturbance and, as such, presence of mid and upper level clouds disrupting outgoing longwave radiation. No major concerns regarding winds. Light to moderate onshore NW flow through most of today, backing more SW overnight but remaining relatively light. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Light southerly surge along the Central Coast this morning bringing stratus well into the Monterey Bay, but also providing some uncertainty invof KMRY. Short range guidance hinting at the potential for early clearing of FG this morning under the influence of weak downslope flow off of the Santa Lucia range...also noted in surface observations. VFR expected across the land area through this afternoon with a return to IFR overnight tonight. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 308 AM PDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Gentle to moderate northerly breezes are expected today which will be accompanied with subsiding seas. Moderate seas hold through mid week or so, and then build into the latter portion of the work week. Winds will increase as well and another round of Small Craft Advisories may be needed. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Behringer MARINE...KR Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea