837 FXUS66 KMTR 132301 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 401 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025 ...New FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1253 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Cool and quiet weather continues through the forecast period. Dry conditions persist across high terrain, leading to elevated grass fire danger. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1253 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Our story continues with a very seasonably quiet weather pattern across the CA coast. Minor fluctuations in the marine layer height will continue to cause some day-to-day differences in humidity across some of the higher terrain around 2,000 feet. Otherwise it`s much of the same for most of us closer to sea level. As of writing, there has been a new fire start south of Hollister. The good news is that it isn`t particularly windy in the area and should see good humidity recovery overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1253 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Looking into the longer term; A few small perturbations in the upper level flow that stay to our north will help tamp down the effects of a broad upper level ridge. This will keep temps a few degrees below seasonal normals pretty much across the board. We do see a *slight* warming trend towards the end of the period mid next week as the ridge builds over the West Coast, but nothing terribly notable at this point. Perhaps high temperatures near normal by the middle of next week. Would not be surprised if we see additional grass and vegetation fire starts over the next several days - like the one mentioned near Hollister - as grasses and fine fuels are very dry and susceptible to catching fire. Again, the good news is that we are looking to stay under a seasonable onshore flow regime throughout the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1009 AM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025 IFR/MVFR ceilings persist early this morning across the Bay Area terminals, yet are expected to return to VFR by 18Z or 19Z and persist through the early evening. IFR conditions prevail at HAF yet should lift and scatter out by early afternoon. Onshore winds increase again this afternoon and will be out of the west-northwest with gusts up to 30 kt at SFO. Low level wind shear continues over the North Bay overnight and will persist through early Saturday morning. Wind speeds ease overnight. Moderate to high confidence for low level clouds to return late this evening at the Monterey Bay terminals and early Saturday morning across the Bay Area terminals. Winds increase once again and conditions returning to VFR by Saturday afternoon. Vicinity of SFO...IFR conditions persist this morning over SFO, but will clear/scatter out by around 18Z or 19Z. Thereafter, conditions return to VFR with an increase in westerly winds with gusts up to 30 kt this afternoon. Winds ease overnight slightly, yet will remain out of the west-northwest. Moderate confidence for IFR/MVFR ceilings to return early Saturday morning and prevail through late morning. Winds increase once again Saturday afternoon with a return to VFR conditions. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR/VFR conditions have returned to the region with onshore winds forecast to increase this afternoon with low clouds forecast to clear/scatter out. Moderate to high confidence of IFR/MVFR ceilings to return late this evening and persist through Saturday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1009 AM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes, near gale force gusts, and moderate to rough seas will prevail through Tuesday. Localized gale force gusts near the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and Point Sur are expected during the afternoon and evening hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 359 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Another veg fire, Lime Fire, developed in the interior Central Coast again this afternoon. This will be a common theme over the weekend as elevated fire weather conditions prevail. Night/morning marine layer will remain with cooler temperatures and excellent humidity recovery at lower elevations. Above the marine layer (higher hills/mts) and areas not directly impacted by the marine layer will see moderate to poor humidity recoveries. The lack of humidity recovery will keep finer fuels, like grasses, drier and more susceptible to fire starts. Additionally, given the onshore flow winds will be gusty each afternoon/evening for inland valleys (Salinas Valley), and gaps/passes. The large view for the interior Central Coast shows ERC values barely exceeding average, burn index close to seasonal averages, and 100 hr fuel moisture slightly below seasonal averages. Marine layer will hover 1700-2100 feet the next few days. MM && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Behringer LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...RGass MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea X.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea