837
FXUS66 KMTR 132301
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
401 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1253 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Cool and quiet weather continues through the forecast period. Dry
conditions persist across high terrain, leading to elevated grass
fire danger.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1253 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Our story continues with a very seasonably quiet weather pattern
across the CA coast. Minor fluctuations in the marine layer height
will continue to cause some day-to-day differences in humidity
across some of the higher terrain around 2,000 feet. Otherwise
it`s much of the same for most of us closer to sea level. As of
writing, there has been a new fire start south of Hollister. The
good news is that it isn`t particularly windy in the area and
should see good humidity recovery overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1253 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Looking into the longer term; A few small perturbations in the
upper level flow that stay to our north will help tamp down the
effects of a broad upper level ridge. This will keep temps a few
degrees below seasonal normals pretty much across the board. We do
see a *slight* warming trend towards the end of the period mid
next week as the ridge builds over the West Coast, but nothing
terribly notable at this point. Perhaps high temperatures near
normal by the middle of next week. Would not be surprised if we
see additional grass and vegetation fire starts over the next
several days - like the one mentioned near Hollister - as grasses
and fine fuels are very dry and susceptible to catching fire.
Again, the good news is that we are looking to stay under a
seasonable onshore flow regime throughout the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1009 AM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

IFR/MVFR ceilings persist early this morning across the Bay Area
terminals, yet are expected to return to VFR by 18Z or 19Z and
persist through the early evening. IFR conditions prevail at HAF yet
should lift and scatter out by early afternoon. Onshore winds
increase again this afternoon and will be out of the west-northwest
with gusts up to 30 kt at SFO. Low level wind shear continues over
the North Bay overnight and will persist through early Saturday
morning. Wind speeds ease overnight. Moderate to high confidence for
low level clouds to return late this evening at the Monterey Bay
terminals and early Saturday morning across the Bay Area terminals.
Winds increase once again and conditions returning to VFR by
Saturday afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...IFR conditions persist this morning over SFO, but
will clear/scatter out by around 18Z or 19Z. Thereafter, conditions
return to VFR with an increase in westerly winds with gusts up to 30
kt this afternoon. Winds ease overnight slightly, yet will remain
out of the west-northwest. Moderate confidence for IFR/MVFR ceilings
to return early Saturday morning and prevail through late morning.
Winds increase once again Saturday afternoon with a return to VFR
conditions.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR/VFR conditions have returned to the
region with onshore winds forecast to increase this afternoon with
low clouds forecast to clear/scatter out. Moderate to high
confidence of IFR/MVFR ceilings to return late this evening and
persist through Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1009 AM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes, near gale force gusts, and
moderate to rough seas will prevail through Tuesday. Localized
gale force gusts near the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and
Point Sur are expected during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 359 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Another veg fire, Lime Fire, developed in the interior Central
Coast again this afternoon. This will be a common theme over the
weekend as elevated fire weather conditions prevail.
Night/morning marine layer will remain with cooler temperatures
and excellent humidity recovery at lower elevations. Above the
marine layer (higher hills/mts) and areas not directly impacted by
the marine layer will see moderate to poor humidity recoveries.
The lack of humidity recovery will keep finer fuels, like grasses,
drier and more susceptible to fire starts. Additionally, given
the onshore flow winds will be gusty each afternoon/evening for
inland valleys (Salinas Valley), and gaps/passes.

The large view for the interior Central Coast shows ERC values
barely exceeding average, burn index close to seasonal averages,
and 100 hr fuel moisture slightly below seasonal averages.

Marine layer will hover 1700-2100 feet the next few days.

MM


&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for
     Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...Sarment

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