409
FXUS66 KLOX 021816
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1116 AM PDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Updated Aviation Section

.SYNOPSIS...02/209 AM.

June gloom will be in full force this week with night through
morning low clouds fog occuring every day. Most max temps will
remain below normal through the week. A small warming trend will
develop at the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...02/850 AM.

***UPDATE***

Minor forecast update to tweak temperatures up focused for
southern coastal valleys thanks to the eddy well offshore
supporting offshore trends and an early clearing at least to the
coast. With onshore trends by this evening we`ll likely see low
clouds and fog push inland earlier than normal with drizzle
possible overnight as mentioned in earlier discussions.

The focus of today will be on Tuesday`s shower and thunderstorm
potential with relatively quiet weather likely Wednesday onward.

***From Previous Discussion***

The marine layer is not behaving this morning and most of LA
county remains cloud free. The latest satellite trends do show a
decent mass of stratus moving up through Orange County and this
should bring low clouds to the LA county coast and portions of the
San Gabriel Vly towards dawn. The San Fernando and Santa Clarita
Vlys should remain clear. Low clouds do, however, cover most of
the csts/vlys of SLO/SBA/VTA counties. Moderate onshore flow this
afternoon will make for slow clearing and possibly no clearing for
some west facing beaches. Max temps are forecast to fall 3 to 6
locally 8 degrees today, but this may be too much due to the
weaker than fcst marine layer intrusion.

Tuesday will be a interesting day esp for June. Another upper low
will spin down the coast tonight. At first it will lift and deepen
the marine layer. Look for low clouds to cover all of the coasts
and vlys and should xtnd to the cstl slopes. The rapid lift will
likely produce areas of drizzle in the morning. In the afternoon
stronger onshore flow will likely keep the low clouds over the
csts for the day. The instability and lift of the low will combine
with some moisture and will produce a slight chc of TSTMs over the
LA and VTA mtns in the afternoon and evening. Max temps will not
change much and will remain below normals. In addition, there
will be gusty onshore winds across the interior, with gusts mostly
in the 25 to 40 mph range, except locally up to 45 mph in the
Antelope Valley foothills.

The upper low will linger in the evening and bring a chc of
showers to the LA mtns and the Antelope Vly.

The low will exit the area early Wednesday. Wrap around moisture
and weak dynamics from the low will bring a slight chc of some
showers to eastern LA county in the morning. June Gloom continues
with morning low clouds across the csts/vly with slow clearing in
the morning and no clearing for a few west facing beaches. Another
round of gusty west winds is also on tap for the Antelope Vly. Max
temps will not change too much again and will remain blo normal.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...02/304 AM.

It looks like a fairly persistent pattern for the rest of the
week and weekend. Broad large scale pos tilt troffing will cover
NV/CA Thu and Fri. The trof will weaken over the weekend as high
pressure moves in. Hgts will rise from about 580 dam Thu/Fri to
586 dam by Sunday. Mdt to stg onshore flow will continue Thu/Fri
and then weaken over the weekend.

Skies will be mostly clear save for the night through morning low
clouds across the csts and most of the vlys. The weaker onshore
flow and higher hgts will likely reduce the amount of low clouds
over the weekend esp for the vlys.

Max temps should slowly rise, esp Sat/Sun, as the hgts rise. By
Sunday most max temps should be above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1815Z.

At around 18Z at KLAX, there was no recent sounding data
available.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in TAF for KSBA. There is a 20% chance for
very brief VFR conds after 22Z.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, and KVNY. Timing of
flight cat changes may be off +/- 2 hours (highest uncertainty
for KBUR/KVNY) and minimum flight cat may be off by one cat.

High confidence in arrival of low clouds later this evening at
remaining sites. There is a 40% chance for brief clearing at KOXR
today, and a 10% chance for no clearing at KCMA. Immediate
coastal sites may bounce between SCT and BKN cigs frequently this
afternoon. Lower confidence in the timing of arrival of cigs
tonight (+/- 2 hours arrival time). Minimum flight cat may be off
by one cat, especially between 05Z and 15Z. However, MVFR cigs
are generally expected when low clouds are present.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. High confidence in return of
low clouds, but lower confidence in timing (+/- 2 hours). However,
conds might bounce between SCT and BKN012-025 this afternoon
before clouds return OVC through tomorrow. High confidence in no
significant east wind component through the period.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival of low clouds may be
off +/- 3 hours. There is a 30% chance for IFR cigs/vsbys once low
clouds arrive.

&&

.MARINE...02/821 AM.

For the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level seas of 10
feet will continue in the central and northern zones through this
afternoon. There is a 30% chance for the southern zone to reach 10
feet, and a 30% chance for SCA level seas to linger into tonight.
Otherwise, conditions look to remain below advisory criteria
through the week.

For the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, high confidence
in conditions remaining below SCA criteria through the week.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, moderate to high confidence in
conditions remaining below SCA criteria through the week. There is
chance (30%) for winds to approach SCA levels Tuesday afternoon
and evening in the western portion.

For the Inner Waters off the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts,
high confidence in conditions remaining below SCA levels through
the week. However, there is a chance (20%) for winds to near SCA
levels Tuesday evening near Malibu and the southern coast of the
Palos Verdes Peninsula.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday afternoon
      for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...30

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox