640
FXUS66 KEKA 010709
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1209 AM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Slightly cooler, yet still hot conditions continue
for Sunday. Gusty winds will continue through Sunday with less
widespread and gusty winds by Monday afternoon. Warm and dry
conditions for the first week of June are to be expected.
KEY MESSAGES:
-Strong gusty winds near shore Sunday and Monday afternoon.
-Very slight chance (10% or less) of isolated dry thunderstorms
over high terrain on Sunday.
-Slight Fire Concern Sunday and Monday afternoon for portions of
the interior (interior Del Norte, eastern Trinity, NE Mendocino,
and eastern Lake)
&&
.DISCUSSION...A strong pressure gradient continues to develop
along the North Coast Sunday. High pressure out in the eastern
Pacific will push against a developing low pressure system over
Northwest California. As the high pressure pushes to the east over
the next few days, the low pressure system is set to move south
down the California Coast and as a result, strong northerly winds
will develop along the North Coast. Mid to late Sunday morning
through late Sunday night, there is a high probability for gusts
above 35 mph (85 to 95 percent) along the Humboldt and Del Norte
coasts. Higher gusts to 45 mph are more likely at higher
elevations along the coast, mostly affecting the King Range and
the Klamath Mountains of Del Norte County. There could still be
instances with gusts at lower elevations around Humboldt Bay and
coastal Del Norte by mid Sunday afternoon, with gusts to 45 mph
more likely around Point St. George.
There is also a very slight chance (<10%) that isolated
thunderstorms could occur over higher terrain areas of southern
Trinity and NE Mendocino, but moisture availability seems sparse.
However, with even a slight chance of dry lightning Sunday
afternoon fire weather could be a concern.
Winds over the region have a chance to remain elevated into
Monday afternoon. With the high pressure system moving over the
area Monday, interior regions could have periods in the afternoon
with gusty winds and low min RHs (15% to 25%). Wind along shore will
also gradually decrease after Monday, though some moderate
afternoon gusts remain most likely through mid week. Long range
ensembles show generally high confidence in warm, dry conditions
continuing through the first week of June.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR and brief IFR cigs are forecast early Sunday morning
around Humboldt Bay and Eel delta. Low cloud cover should clear out
rapidly mid-to-late morning as strong and gusty northerlies increase
through the day at coastal terminals. Potential for low level wind
shear and/or low level turbulence will once again for coastal
terminals Sunday evening. Otherwise, VFR is expected for much of the
interior except for early morning low clouds and fog in North Coast
river valleys. Potential for turbulence associated with robust
northerlies over the coastal ranges will also increase on Sunday and
persist into Sunday evening. DB
&&
.MARINE...Exceptionally strong north winds are anticipated
very early Sunday morning and will continue into early next week.
Gusts to 45-55 kt are highly probable (80-100% chance) Sunday-
Monday. Also extremely large seas (20ft or more) are forecast.
Mariners should remain in port and alter plans until calmer
conditions develop. Very strong winds and very large waves could
capsize vessels.
Synoptically, a 1038mb high pressure center over the NE Pacific will
build and interact with a deepening low pressure system over the
California interior. A very tight pressure gradient between the high
and low is forecast to develop. Gale and storm force winds will
increase both in coverage and duration on Sunday. These strong north
winds will propel seas to 15 to 20 ft by midday Sunday, and then 18
to 25 ft Sunday night into Monday morning as sustained northerly
winds hit 35-45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Full gales with storm force
gusts are forecast to continue Monday and Tuesday, especially in the
outer waters. Strong gales will generate steep northerly waves that
will propagate into the inner waters into early next week. Gales are
probable for much of next week with highest chances in the outer
waters and downwind of Pt St George and Cape Mendocino as strong
high pressure remains anchored offshore and thermally induced low
pressure continues over the northern California interior. Long
duration of exceptionally strong northerlies and large steep waves
is forecast to wind down late next week into the following weekend,
Friday June 6th to Sunday June 8th. Low end gales for gusts to 35-40
kt and/or small craft advisories for steep waves will still be
possible. Stay tuned. DB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Fire concerns are generally low both Sunday and
Monday afternoon. However, there is less than a 10% chance for
isolated thunderstorms over higher terrain areas of southern
Trinity and NE Mendocino, making dry lightning a non-zero threat.
On Monday, there is a period in the afternoon where winds have a
chance to remain elevated over interior areas. For interior Del
Norte County, min RH values are forecast to be mostly in the mid
20s, but gusts from 20 to 30 mph could still be likely. For areas
of eastern Trinity, NE Mendocino, and eastern Lake, min RHs are
expected to be mostly from 15 to 20 percent; however, gusts are
more likely to be around 15 to 25 mph.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ450-455.
Storm Warning until 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ470.
Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ475.
Storm Warning from 9 AM Sunday to 9 AM PDT Monday for
PZZ475.
&&
$$
NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.
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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png