168 FXUS66 KSGX 272023 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 123 PM PDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and cloudy weather with isolated showers bringing light rain and mountain snow will continue through today. Breezy southwest to west winds over the desert slopes into the deserts will peak this afternoon and early evening, before calming overnight. Dry, warmer weather with the usual marine layer low clouds each night and morning will follow through most of next week. Temperatures cool off again as we approach next weekend, with a deeper marine layer. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM... The upper low pressure system that brought yesterday`s wet and windy weather is currently moving east out of northeast Nevada. Showers have mostly tapered off at this point, though there are few isolated ones lingering, mostly offshore. Precipitation totals since rain started are from a few hundredths of an inch to about a third of an inch for coastal and valley locations (with a few spots in Orange County receiving up to 0.40"), a few hundredths of an inch in the western high desert, and about a quarter inch to an inch of rain (or liquid equivalent above the snow line) for the mountains. Meanwhile, west to southwest winds have become breezy over the mountains (mostly the desert slopes) into the deserts, though not nearly to the extent of yesterday`s winds, with intermittent gusts up to 50 mph through the particularly wind-prone passes (like the Banning Pass). Winds taper off this evening and then calm overnight. Late this afternoon through the evening, isolated showers could develop over the mountains. Snow levels will be rising through the day from about 5000 feet this morning to 6000 to 7000 feet late this afternoon, so any snow showers will generally be restricted to the peaks. A few showers popping up again over San Diego County coastal areas/valleys are also not out of the question late in the evening through early morning Monday, with about a 10% chance for this to occur. Any showers will continue be light, resulting in a few hundredths of precipitation for areas they cross. Any last shower(s) will taper off by mid-morning Monday as the upper low continues to move eastward and the atmosphere aloft dries out behind it. Weaker troughing/low pressure aloft will continue to linger over the region Monday and part of Tuesday, keeping temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below average Monday. Despite that, afternoon high temperatures Monday will be noticeably warmer than today away from the immediate coast, where warming will be less significant, and skies will be much clearer in the afternoon. This trend will continue Tuesday, and afternoon high temperatures will warm to near normal region-wide, plus/minus a few degrees. Not much difference Wednesday compared to Tuesday as weak ridging aloft hangs in there for most of the day. Winds will be fairly sedate early next week, with average springtime afternoon and evening breezes. Marine layer low clouds will develop at least in areas each night and morning, though they`ll be shallower and closer to the coast in extent both Monday night through Tuesday morning and Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. && .LONG TERM...Thursday May 1 through Sunday May 04... A weak low aloft moves into southern California early Thursday morning, which will deepen the marine layer and could result in some patchy drizzle out of it Thursday morning, but otherwise won`t have much affect on temperatures or winds Thursday. Temperatures will then gradually cool each day Friday through the end of the week as the weak low gets pushed out by a stronger system approaching from the northwest. Nightly and morning low clouds will continue to deepen and get further inland overnight through the end of the week. Ensembles are in pretty good agreement with regards to a stronger trough moving down the west coast into California Saturday into Sunday, but clustered 500 mb heights have differences in specific positioning and strength of the trough, which will affect degree of cooling, strength of winds, and precipiation. Temperatures nonetheless are expected to be slightly below average Friday, then increasingly below average Saturday and Sunday. Afternoon/evening breezes will likely strengthen slightly from Thursday to Friday, with stronger winds over the mountains and deserts Saturday and Sunday. Model ensembles continue to show pretty good agreement in precipitation around Sunday into early next week, but amounts look quite light. && .AVIATION... 272012Z....Coasts/Valleys/Coastal Mountain Slopes...SCT-BKN clouds with bases 3000-6000 ft MSL through this evening with higher terrain locally obscured. Local VIS 3-5 miles and local BKN-OVC bases 2000- 3000 ft MSL in -SHRA but most VIS will remain unrestricted below the clouds. After 06Z Mon, BKN-OVC with bases around 1500-2500 ft MSL will fill in again. Mountains/Deserts. through 20Z Sun...Occasional west winds with gusts 20-35 kt will continue through this evening, mainly from the mountain crests east through the desert mountain slopes and locally into the deserts, including below mountain passes. SCT -SHRA/-SHSN will occur in the mountains with occasional mountain obscurations in clouds. Some clearing will occur this evening and SHRA/SHSN will continue to taper off overnight into early Monday morning. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Thursday. && .BEACHES... Elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet with sets to 7 feet will occur through Wednesday. Highest surf will occur on south facing beaches. Strong rip currents are expected. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for Orange County Coastal Areas. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...CSP AVIATION/MARINE...Small