360 FXUS65 KVEF 020904 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 204 AM PDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible through midweek as sufficient moisture and instability remain in the area. Precipitation totals should be light and most activity will take place over high terrain. The area slowly dries out and temperatures begin to climb as a ridge builds later this week. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday. The center of the low pressure system will migrate from Arizona into the Rocky Mountains today, while another low moves southeast along the California coast. The forecast area sits between these two features. Very little moisture was scoured out from the eastern system and PWATS between 200 and 300 percent of normal remain over the area. Showers are currently over parts of Mohave and Clark counties early this morning, producing light rainfall and an occasional lightning strike. Lingering moisture combined with instability from clearing skies and surface heating should allow for another round of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. CAMs show most of the activity starting in the southern Great Basin and eastern Sierra this afternoon where clearing is the best, moving southeast into Mohave and Clark counties in the evening. Most storms should take place over high terrain, but a few of the stronger cells may make it into the valleys. Dry low levels suggest that most of the precipitation will evaporate before it hits the ground with only light amounts at the surface. Some storms may produce gusty outflows in excess of 40 mph. More isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected on Tuesday and Wednesday as the Pacific low pressure system to moves inland near the international border. Anomalously high moisture remains as seen in continued PWATs between 200 and 300 percent of normal. Most activity should take place over high terrain where lift is the greatest. Forecast soundings suggest these storms will also be high based, capable of producing gusty outflows and only light precipitation at the surface. The HREF indicates 1000 to 1500 J/kg of DCAPE tomorrow afternoon. .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday. Weak northwest flow will continue across the region late in the week. A series of weak short waves will move through the flow and interact with lingering moisture, resulting in slight PoPs through early Friday. The best chances will be over the southern Great Basin and Arizona Strip. The remaining moisture should move east of the area by Friday afternoon, bringing an end to the precipitation chances. Despite the shortwaves, a high-pressure ridge building over the eastern Pacific and northern Mexico will result in increased 500 mb heights across the Desert Southwest. As such, temperatures will climb back to 4 to 8 degrees above seasonal norms heading into the weekend, and temperatures approaching 10 degrees above normal heading into next week. This will result in desert valleys experiencing high temperatures in the 100s once again, and widespread "Moderate" Heat Risk from Sunday onward. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package... Precipitation chances have decreased for the overnight period, but a few showers and possibly a thundershower are possible until after daybreak. The chance of showers and storms will remain low through most of the day tomorrow. However, the latest guidance indicates the potential for some storms to move from the north into or just east of the valley after 03Z tomorrow evening, and a PROB30 group has been included in the latest TAF to account for this. Winds will remain breezy out of the south for the next few hours before falling below 10 knots around daybreak. Winds should remain 10 knots or less tomorrow, except in and near any storms that develop, where gusty and erratic winds will be possible. Cloud bases will stay 8kft to 10kft through the TAF period, although they may briefly fall below that level in and near any areas of convection. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06z Forecast Package...Conditions at the Las Vegas area TAF sites will be similar to those described above for Harry Reid. Elsewhere, the best chance of convection tonight and tomorrow will be in the lower Colorado River Valley, where scattered storms will be possible into tomorrow morning. A few storms are also expected to develop along the Sierra near KBIH by late morning and continue through the afternoon. While the chance of a storm directly impacting a terminal is low, gusty and erratic winds generated by storms will be possible. Away from convective activity, winds should generally remain 15 knots or less. Cloud bases will stay 8kft to 10kft across the region, although they may briefly fall below that level in and near any areas of convection. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Meltzer LONG TERM...Planz AVIATION...Planz For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter