316
FXUS66 KMTR 141009
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
309 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 253 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Cool coastside, warmer daytime highs inland and quiet weather
continues through the forecast period. Dry conditions persist
across high terrain, leading to elevated grass fire danger.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Stratus cloud cover is limited early this morning so far compared
to stratus cloud coverage this time yesterday morning. Satellite
shows a few areas of cirrus and patchy coastal stratus developing.
Friday afternoon`s drying on northwest winds decidedly mixed out
the stratus, a signature of a robust mid-latitude dry air intrusion
with surface dew point temps (water vapor) still limited at this
hour and stratus trying to get a foothold. Aside from cirrus possibly
slowing radiational cooling a little, much of the troposphere is
dry with the precipitable water (0.44" i.e. near the 10th percentile
for mid June) on Friday evening`s Oakland upper air sounding. It`s
chilly again with 40s/50s this morning across low lying elevations
while it`s milder in the 60s at elevation in the hills/mtn tops in
the lower level temperature inversion. Daytime highs today will be
about the same as yesterday`s with highs upper 50s/60s coastside
to the 70s/80s/lower 90s inland, warmest to hottest farthest
inland.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Sunday`s weather will be about the same as today`s, not much
change in morning lows and daytime highs. On Monday a weak and
dry 500 mb trough will pass eastward across our forecast area
then become replaced by increasing 500 mb heights (ridging)
Tuesday. By later Wed-Thu the global models forecast strengthening
of the surface high over the Eastern Pacific and lowering of
surface pressures over the Central Valley. As mentioned yesterday
morning, a steepening in the northerly ACV-SFO pressure gradient
and winds is forecast. Surface theta-e on the latest ECMWF still
shows a reinforcement of cooler and drier air arriving from the
northwest Wednesday evening and night. This stronger northerly
pattern may temporarily bump up daytime highs a few degrees above
normal during mid week with cooling returning late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 901 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

VFR conditions remain at most TAF sites this evening, with little
to no stratus being observed across the Bay Area and Central
Coast. There are some reduced visibilities that are being observed
at KHAF, but outside of that, we are in wait and see mode. The
challenge for the stratus has changed some. The latest guidance
has delayed the onset of low clouds at most sites, and now there`s
even more uncertainty of just how far inland does it goes.
Favored the inherited TAFs, though adjusted timing for nearly all
the sites that are expected to see it. Will need to keep an eye
on KLVK as some guidance has entering the vicnity of the range
ring.

Vicinity of SFO...he marine layer is roughly around 1500ft and
should generally hold tonight. Guidance for SFO is a bit mixed,
but opted to favor the HREF, GLAMP, and NBM guidance for timing
out the return of the stratus tonight which is now a few hours
later than expected. Look for MVFR to IFR CIGS with conditions
improving by late morning. There may be some pesky lingering low
cloud again tomorrow, otherwise expect VFR conditions for the
afternoon and early evening. The stratus signal for tomorrow night
generally favors an after 06Z arrival, though opted to hint at
that with it arriving around 05Z. In addition to the stratus,
gusty west to west- northwest will prevail.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...The region has mostly cleared out, with
stratus lingering on the edge and just offshore of the Monterey
Peninsula. Expect stratus to fill back in tonight, likely around or
after 08Z-10Z and then mix out by mid to late morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 840 PM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes, near gale force gusts,  and
moderate to rough seas will prevail through Wednesday.  Localized
gale force gusts are expected near the coastal jet  regions of
Point Reyes and Point Sur during the afternoon and  evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions prevail through the weekend.
Night/morning marine layer will remain with cooler temperatures
and excellent humidity recovery at lower elevations. Above the
marine layer (higher hills/mts) and areas not directly impacted by
the marine layer will see moderate to poor humidity recoveries.
The lack of humidity recovery will keep finer fuels, like grasses,
drier and more susceptible to fire starts. Additionally, given the
onshore flow, winds will be gusty each afternoon/evening for inland
valleys (Salinas Valley), and gaps/passes.

The large view for the interior Central Coast shows ERC values
barely exceeding average, burn index close to seasonal averages,
and 100 hr fuel moisture slightly below seasonal averages.

Marine layer will hover 1700-2100 feet the next few days.

MM

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday
     for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Canepa
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...RGass

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