445
FXUS66 KLOX 011209
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
509 AM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...01/225 AM.

There is a chance of a shower or thunderstorm today over LA county
and to a lesser degree Ventura county. Otherwise, look for night
through morning low clouds and fog to continue through the week.
It will be cooler today and Monday with a warming trend starting
on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...01/259 AM.

The upper low to the SW continues to spin and will slowly move to
the NE today ending up over Yuma AZ by the evening. Today it will
spin moisture, instability and weak dynamics into the area. This
will bring a chance of showers and or TSTMs to LA county and to
the VTA mtns. The MUCAPE values are lower today and any storms
that form will not be as strong as the storm that formed over the
VTA and SBA mtns ydy. By early evening the low`s eastward push
will drag the chc of rain to the east and only the eastern San
Gabriels will have a chc of a shower. The marine layer has shrunk
to under a 1000 ft and low clouds have formed over most of the
coasts. An easterly push from the upper low`s flow pattern,
however, is pushing some of the low clouds south of Point
Conception off of the csts and into the waters. Skies, otherwise,
will be partly to mostly cloudy due to mid and high level clouds
spinning around the low. The combination of these clouds and
strong onshore flow will lower max temps 4 to 8 degrees. Most max
temps (except for the Central Coast) will still end up a few
degrees above normal.

Another upper low will pirouette down the coast on Monday. It has
very little moisture to work with and will not do much other than
deepen the marine layer some and bring cooling to the area.
Offshore trends in the morning may keep some of the vlys cloud
free but a strong onshore push in the afternoon will likely keep
many west facing beaches cloudy all day. Lowering hgts and strong
onshore flow will combine to lower most temps another 4 to 8
degrees (the Central Coast will only cool 1 to 2 degrees). Most
max temps across the csts/vly will end up in the mid 60s to mid
70s with the warmest vlys coming in with reading in the upper 70s
to 81 degrees.

Look for a robust marine layer in the morning will slow clearing
and likely no clearing for many west facing beaches. Max temps
will not change much and will remain 3 to 6 degrees blo normal.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...01/306 AM.

Not much excitement on tap for the long term. Xtnd mdls agree that
a long wave weak pos tilt trof will settle over NV/CA Wed and
remain in place through at least Saturday. At the sfc mdt to
strong onshore flow both to the east and north will continue each
day. June Gloom will be fully established with low clouds covering
the csts and vlys in the night through morning hours with slow
clearing and likely no clearing for many beaches. Strong onshore
flow to the east will likely bring gusty westerly winds to the
Antelope Vly and western foothills each afternoon.

Mdls are forecasting a slow 1 to 2 degree warm up each day. While
possible this may be a little optimistic as none of the parameters
that affect day to day temps will be changing that much if at all.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1208Z.

At 0910Z at KLAX, the marine layer was under 500 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was around 1700 feet with a temperature of
26 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs flight cat transitions may
be off by +/- 90 minutes. There is a 20 percent chc of a shower
through 00Z and ISOLD TSTMs are possible near the mtns 18Z-00Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. CIGS AOA 010 may arrive any
time 15Z-17Z. VFR conds may be delayed until 20Z. There is a 30
percent chc of a shower through 00Z. No significant east wind
component expected.

KBUR...Good confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance of a TSTM
18Z-00Z.

&&

.MARINE...01/318 AM.

For the Outer Waters conditions will remain below Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) levels through Sunday morning. There is a 40-50%
chance of SCA level wind gusts for the northern Outer Waters,
around Point Conception, and south to San Nicolas Island Sunday
afternoon into the overnight hours. Additionally, there is a 50-60%
chance for seas to reach or exceed 10 feet in the northern Outer
Waters late Sunday into Monday afternoon. Thereafter, conditions
look to remain below advisory criteria through next week. However,
Tuesday evening may see some breezy conditions south of Point
Conception.

For the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, high confidence
in conditions remaining below SCA criteria through the week.
However, there is a 20-30% chance for SCA level wind gusts Sunday
afternoon into late night hours, especially over northern portions.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, high confidence in conditions
remaining below SCA criteria through next week. However, there is
a 20% chance of SCA level wind gusts over the western portion and
near Santa Cruz Island during the afternoon and evening hours on
Sunday.

For the Inner Waters off the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts,
high confidence in conditions remaining below SCA levels through
next week.

An upper level low pressure system off the coast of Baja
California will bring a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms through
Sunday, especially south of the Channel Islands. Anything
thunderstorm could produce lightning, rain, and gusty, erratic
winds.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect from 9 AM PDT this morning
      through Tuesday afternoon for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Phillips/Lewis
SYNOPSIS...30

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox