400
FXUS66 KLOX 081642
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
942 AM PDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Updated aviation and marine sections

.SYNOPSIS...08/911 AM.

A warming trend will begin today and peak Wednesday and Thursday,
with many areas 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Temperatures will
return to near normal over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...08/920 AM.

***UPDATE***

The warming trend is beginning today (mainly south of Pt
Conception) with many areas already 5-10 degrees warmer than at
this time yesterday. A decrease in morning stratus along with
weaker onshore flow will provide another warming factor for
southern areas. For northern areas the upper low is still having
a cooling influence with a deeper marine layer so any warming
there today will be minimal.

Overall forecast remains on track with additional
warming Wednesday and Thursday. Forecast highs are still mostly
below heat advisory levels so for now no heat advisories are
planned for this event.

***From Previous Discussion***

High confidence in a significant warm up through Wednesday with
continued well above normal temperatures focused away from the
coast through Thursday. The warm up is attributed to a rapidly
building ridge from the east through Wednesday and offshore trends
from the north during this period as well. High temperatures will
likely peak around 70 right at the coast to near 90 warmer
interior coastal areas such as Los Angeles, while warmer valleys
will see highs 95 to 105+. These temperatures are borderline
advisory level with a 20-40 percent chance of hitting Heat
Advisory thresholds mainly for Los Angeles, Ventura, and Santa
Barbara Counties and away from the coast. Night to morning clouds
will likely continue near the coast each day with the potential
for dense fog, especially Wednesday and Thursday mornings.
Although monsoon moisture may interfere with low cloud development
for Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, potentially leading to
mostly clear skies save for some mid to high clouds Wednesday and
Thursday in particular.

Breezy northwest to onshore winds will continue through Thursday
with advisory level Sundowners becoming likely (60 percent chance)
for southwest Santa Barbara County Wednesday and Thursday
evenings. Elevated fire weather conditions will continue away from
the coast with the potential for rapid fire growth with new fire
starts.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...08/346 AM.

A slow cool down is likely Friday into Saturday with reduced heat
risk across the region. There is a 50 percent chance of the ridge
rebuilding early next week with another round of at least
moderate heat risk (widespread highs in the 90s and 100s away from
the coast). The ridge may wobble into a favorable position for
monsoonal showers or thunderstorms at times early next week, but
low confidence on when and if this will happen.

Gusty onshore winds may approach advisory levels for prone inland
areas such as typical mountain corridors and Antelope Valley
foothills. Low clouds may push back into lower valleys during this
period, especially if a moderate eddy forms by Friday morning in
the wake of the Sundowners. Elevated fire weather conditions will
continue away from the coast with the potential for rapid fire
growth with new fire starts.

&&

.AVIATION...08/1641Z.

Around 16Z, the marine layer depth was around 800 feet deep at
KLAX. The top of the inversion was near 3200 feet with a
temperature near 25 degrees Celsius.

High confidence in the current forecast for valley and desert
terminals. Moderate confidence in the current forecast for coastal
terminals. Timing of arrival could be off by two hours. Conditions
should one category lower than last night and this morning with
higher likelihood of LIFR to IFR conditions.

KLAX...There is a 30 percent chance of no low clouds tonight and
into Wednesday morning. LIFR to IFR conditions will likely spread
in as early as 08Z, or as late as 12Z. Higher confidence exists in
IFR conditions at this point. VFR conditions should redevelop
around 16Z Wednesday.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. No wind
impacts are expected at this time.

&&

.MARINE...08/924 AM.

South of Point Conception, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds
are expected to develop this afternoon across all the waters and
continue through at least late tonight. On Wednesday, there is a
moderate (30-40 percent) chance of SCA level winds returning
Wednesday afternoon across the inner waters and a likely (60-70
percent) chance for the waters southwest through northwest of the
Channel Islands. There is a high (50 percent) chance of SCA level
winds lingering across the waters southwest through northwest of
the Channel Islands into Friday evening.

North of Point Conception, winds will very likely remain below SCA
levels through Wednesday morning, then SCA level winds are likely
to spread into the northern waters through Wednesday afternoon.
SCA winds will likely continue into the evening hours out to 10 NM
offshore of the Central Coast, but winds will likely persist into
Friday beyond 10 NM offshore. There is a high (50 percent) chance
of SCA level winds Thursday afternoon and evening out to 10 NM
offshore.

Patchy dense fog may affect the coastal waters overnight and in
the morning hours, with best chances in the waters off the Central
Coast, tonight through Thursday morning.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Wednesday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon Wednesday to 3 AM
      PDT Friday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Friday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Munroe
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox