448 FXUS65 KVEF 260530 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1030 PM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Temperatures will remain below normal throughout the weekend before a slow warm-up begins early next week. * Moisture levels will remain low through the weekend, keeping most of the area dry. A slight uptick in monsoonal moisture across Arizona next week will bring some precipitation chances to eastern Mohave County by mid-week. && .DISCUSSION...through Thursday. A closed 500mb low off the central California Coast continues to move off to the east-northeast early this afternoon. Over the weekend, the low will weaken and be absorbed into larger-scale troughing across the western US. The main impact for our CWA will be a continuation of lower-than-normal heights, which in turn will keep temperatures several degrees below normal in most areas through Sunday. Once the low is absorbed, heights and temperatures will increase slightly, although readings are only expected to return to near seasonable norms by early next week. Long-range ensemble guidance indicates the possibility of another upper-level low developing along the central California Coast by next weekend, which should help keep temperatures in check across our area. With the large-scale trough in place across the west, most of the CWA will remain in dry southwest flow, limiting, but not eliminating, precipitation chances. With the low moving across central California today and tomorrow, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the higher elevations of the Sierra, generally north of Mt. Whitney. Any storms that do develop are expected to remain over the mountains and not directly impact the Owens Valley. Later in the week, strong high pressure over the central plains will spread west, allowing an increase in monsoonal flow across Arizona. Most of the increased moisture will remain east of the CWA, but PWAT values will increase to .70" to .80" across far southern and eastern Mohave County by Tuesday, leading to increased chances of thunderstorms in these areas. Currently, the chance of precipitation in the Las Vegas Valley is minimal; however, the exact progression of the high next week will determine how far west the precipitation eventually spreads. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light southwesterly winds will continue through mid- morning tomorrow when winds will pick up and swing around to the south-southeast. From mid- morning to early-afternoon, it is possible that wind direction may vary from 140 degrees to 210 degrees before settling in from the southwest during the afternoon. These breezier southwesterly winds will continue through sunset when wind gusts will drop off with light southwesterly winds continuing through the overnight hours. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with no operationally significant cloud cover expected. Temperatures will get very close to, but may not quite reach, 100 degrees between 22Z and 02Z. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Winds across southern Nevada and northwest Arizona will favor a southerly direction through the overnight period. These southerly winds will pick up during the late morning to early afternoon period on Saturday, with breezy southerly winds continuing through the afternoon. Winds in the Owens Valley will follow typical diurnal directional trends with breezier up-valley winds picking up during the afternoon and evening. Elevated westerly winds will continue across the western Mojave Desert through the TAF period with 20 to 25 knot wind gusts dropping off early Saturday morning and picking back up around mid- afternoon tomorrow. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with no operationally significant cloud cover expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Planz AVIATION...Stessman For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter