506 FXUS66 KHNX 020507 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1007 PM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025 .UPDATE...Updated Aviation Section. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Minor to Moderate Heat Risk is expected across the lower elevations of the region today with less Heat Risk for the remainder of the week. 2. A disturbance will allow for the development of strong winds over the mountains and across the Eastern Mojave Slopes of the Kern County Mountains Today and Monday. 3. Mountain thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and again on Monday. && .DISCUSSION... A cool-down is now in play across the region as a cold front introduces maritime air today. With the marine layer at Fort Ord reaching almost 2000 feet, will expect some spill-over into the Central California. 24 hour temperature change is already showing the surge in cooler air as values drop by as much as 6 degrees from Saturday morning. So far, the cooler air has reached areas from Fresno County, northward, with cooling expected on Monday. The cold front will also influence winds over the area as breezy conditions are expected later today through early Monday morning. In the meanwhile, the southerly moisture surge will continue today as mountain convection will once again occur across the Sierra Nevada. Once the cold front moves through, dry air and a warming trend will begin early this week. Afternoon max temperatures will struggle to reach 100 degrees across the San Joaquin Valley until the weekend. Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 100 degrees across the San Joaquin Valley is still showing percentages of 15% to 60% this Sunday. The higher percentages sit over the West-Side around Huron and Lemoore, as well as, near Bakersfield. Afterward, PoE of reaching 95 degrees does not show widespread 50% until Friday. Therefore, the warming trend will be slow as ensemble do not hint toward reaching 100 degrees until next Saturday. A weak disturbance later in the week will slow the warming progression as the Central Valley enjoys below triple digit heat until next weekend. The cold front will increase winds this Sunday allowing westerly wind to increase during frontal passage. In the meanwhile, ensemble flow aloft continues to show the southerly winds reaching Central California as convection is expected across the mountain range. By Monday, the westerly flow will begin the dominate the region as only lingering convection will be observed. Tuesday will be a transition to minimal change in temperatures and dry conditions over the region. Probability of Thunder today sits at near 20% and diminishes to near 5% over the coming days. During the same time period, winds reaching 35 mph also diminish from 50% to 70% today to near 20% by Mid-week. Except for an increase in winds on Thursday, winds will generally be light during the period. && .AVIATION... 06Z Update: VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours across the Central California Interior. A 15-25% chance of thunderstorms will exist across the Sierra Nevada from 19Z Mon to 03Z Tue. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public...Molina aviation....BSO weather.gov/hanford