450
FXUS65 KVEF 140901
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
101 AM PST Tue Jan 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Windy conditions will continue through midweek along
the Colorado River Valley with temperatures remaining seasonably
cool before moderating midweek. Very slight chances for sprinkles
and showers will graze Northwest Arizona Thursday. Additional
gusty winds and renewed cooler temperatures may arrive by next
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Wednesday.

More of the same through Wednesday with surface high pressure
anchored across the Great Basin, ensuring a continuation of gusty
north winds along the Colorado River. Otherwise, dry conditions
with temperatures on the cooler side of normal can be expected the
next couple days with abundant sunshine.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.

Models continue with the same large scale pattern evolution as in
the past couple of days, but with important differences in the
details. Confidence is average. Thursday morning, there is already
some spread in the position of the incoming (formerly) cutoff low
and the moisture plume getting pulled into its southern
semicircle. NBM PoPs for Thursday and Thursday night have trended
downward in our CWA, with only tiny chances for rain in Mohave
county. Once this low passes by, there is still very good
agreement on the existence of a big trough in the nation`s
midsection over the weekend, but differences in the position and
depth. Our area will likely see shortwave troughs zipping down in
the northerly flow on the west side of the longwave trough, but
which wave (if any) will amplify is a guessing game until we get
closer. NBM is giving very small, very broad-brushed PoPs over our
CWA Saturday and Sunday, which is likely a result of uncertainty
in which, if any, wave will be able to wring out the meager
moisture available. The northerly push over our area is likely to
arrive Saturday and stick around through Monday, knocking
temperatures down below normal and bringing another round of
breezy northerly winds.


&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds will favor a more northerly
direction (330-030) through this evening. During the overnight and
early morning period, winds will tend to favor a more northwesterly,
with periods of lighter and more variable winds possible at times.
Winds will increase slightly early this morning with gusts around 15
knots expected to impact the terminal. Winds will become more
northeasterly around mid-morning, with sustained speeds of 8 to 12
knots and wind gusts in the 20 knot range expected to continue
through mid-afternoon. Wind gusts will drop off around mid-afternoon
with winds continuing to maintain their northeasterly direction.
Winds will swing back to the northwest after sunset with sustained
speeds dropping below 10 knots.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...HND and VGT will follow similar trends to LAS with
relatively light north-northwest winds shifting to the northeast and
picking up during the morning hours before decreasing and falling
back to the northwest later this afternoon. Light northwest winds
will become light and variable winds during the early afternoon at
BIH. Light and variable winds at DAG will pick up and swing to the
east-northeast this afternoon before once again becoming light and
variable later this afternoon. EED will favor a northwesterly to
northerly direction with 20 to 30 knot wind gusts through the
evening hours. IFP will favor a northerly to northeasterly direction
with 20 to 35 knot wind gusts continuing into the evening hours.
Both of the Colorado River Valley TAF sites will see winds peak
during the afternoon hours.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Outler
LONG TERM...Morgan
AVIATION...Stessman

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