902 FXUS65 KVEF 050506 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1005 PM PDT Fri Apr 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Shower and thunderstorm activity will be limited to eastern Mohave County this afternoon as the weather system moves east. By Saturday, precipitation chances end area-wide and it will remain dry into next week as a ridge builds into the region. The main concern today and Saturday is gusty northerly winds, especially along the Colorado River. Temperatures will warm today through next week, with above normal temperatures expected by Sunday through next week. && .UPDATE...Latest radar and satellite imagery showing all the showers that were over Mohave County dissipating leaving only a few remaining clouds. The trend for the remainder of the overnight period is for clearing skies and cool temperatures. The shortwave responsible for the cooler temperatures and scattered showers will continue to move east this weekend; however, we will continue to deal with a tight surface pressure gradient leading to gusty north winds over the eastern half of the forecast area, especially down the Colorado River Valley through Saturday. With ridging expected next week, expect to see lighter winds, dry conditions, and warming temperatures. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday. An upper level low is currently centered over Arizona while a ridge approaches the west coast. Both features are expected to track east over the next few days which bring impacts related to precipitation, winds, and temperatures. Current satellite imagery shows cumulus development over high terrain in eastern Mohave County. Mesoanalysis indicates around 250 J/kg MUCAPE and PWATs between .2 and .3 inch. Although these parameters are far more limited in spatial extent and magnitude compared to 24 hours ago, guidance still has isolated shower development in eastern Mohave County this afternoon, particularly over high terrain. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out as well. Storm activity slows down in the late afternoon and evening as atmospheric instability decreases and the low shifts east, taking moisture and cold air aloft with it. Dry conditions are expected over the weekend. The incoming ridge behind the exiting low will bring increased northerly winds to the forecast area today and tomorrow as the pressure gradient between the two features tightens. Most areas will experience gusts of 20 to 30 mph today, increasing to 25 to 35 mph tomorrow. However, the strongest winds of this event will be in the Colorado River Valley tonight into tomorrow morning. Confidence is low in a widespread wind event that would warrant a wind headlines. Although the strongest gusts may reach 40 mph, it should be for short periods of time in a limited area south of Bullhead City. Guidance also shows winds peaking overnight and tapering off during the day, which should reduce any potential impacts. Therefore, a Wind Advisory does not appear necessary at this time. Winds will also be below Lake Wind Advisory criteria for Lake Mead and Lake Mohave, but extra caution is advised for increased wave activity. Temperatures steadily increase as heights rise with the incoming ridge. Highs on Sunday will be near to above average for early April. For Las Vegas, there is a 25 percent probability of reaching 80 degrees on Sunday. .LONG TERM...Monday through Friday. The long term portion of the forecast will be dominated by a ridge of high pressure that will bring well above normal temperatures through the week. The ridge that builds over the weekend will flatten briefly early in the week as a shortwave moves into the Pacific NW. This will have little impact on our sensible weather and temperatures will climb to above normal readings starting Monday. Temperatures will continue to rise through the week, likely peaking by Friday. The probabilities of Las Vegas reaching 90 degrees on Tuesday is currently around 5%, but by Tuesday that number reaches 63%. The temperatures will only continue to warm through Friday with an almost 100% chance of at least 90 by Thursday and a 25% chance of reaching 95 degrees on both Thursday and Friday. Although Las Vegas did reach 92 degrees on March 26, this will be the most prolonged heat so far this season. Other areas across the forecast area will see temperatures about 15 degrees above normal. HeatRisk increases to "Low" (Level 1 on a scale of 0-4) for desert valleys Monday including Las Vegas, Moapa Valley, Death Valley, Pahrump Valley, and the Colorado River Valley. The HeatRisk does increase to "Moderate" (Level 2) for the Colorado River Valley and Death Valley by Wednesday. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Northerly breezes continue overnight with speeds 8-12 knots. After sunrise, winds increase and begin to slowly turn to the northeast. Gusts forecast to be around 20 knots with wind direction fluctuating between 360 and 060. By late afternoon and evening, winds should wane and gradually turn back to the north-northwest. A few clouds linger this evening but clear skies anticipated on Saturday. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Northerly breezes continue across most of the area tonight with the exception of DAG which returns to its typical westerly direction. A few mid-level clouds linger over southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona. Tomorrow, north/northeasterly winds return to the entire area. Strongest winds in the lower Colorado River Valley where gusts of 25- 35 knots are forecast. Elsewhere, gusts of 15-25 knots are possible. VFR conditions prevail tomorrow with just some high clouds moving across the Sierra in the afternoon. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ UPDATE...Gorelow SHORT TERM...Meltzer LONG TERM...Gorelow AVIATION...Woods For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter