060
FXUS66 KLOX 022107
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
207 PM PDT Mon Jun 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...02/206 PM.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible into Tuesday, focuses
across the mountains and deserts. Otherwise, June gloom pattern
will prevail through this weekend with a slow warming trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...02/206 PM.

Relatively quiet and typical June weather will continue through
tonight filled with low clouds at the coast and breezy onshore
winds. Fairly widespread drizzle is possible west of the mountains
tonight due to a deepening marine layer and late season storm
approaching from the northwest.

The storm will pass nearby just to our southwest on Tuesday and
absorb enough leftover moisture from our storm that departed over
the weekend to support a 10-30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms mainly between 2 pm and 9 pm from Santa Barbara
County and south with the highest chances focused over the
mountains and deserts. Some of these storms may become strong with
damaging wind (50+ mph), dry lighting with fire starts, and local
flash flooding due to heavy rain (peak rainfall rates to around
0.75 inches per hour) the main threats. There is a small chance of
significant flash flooding or debris flows at the Bridge (5-10
percent chance) and to a lesser extent the Eaton (less than 5
percent chance) burn Scars with all other burn scars near zero
threat. Many areas will see little if any rainfall. Lightning can
strike well outside of thunderstorms (sometimes 10+ miles away!) -
if you hear thunder you are at risk - please consider taking
shelter!

The system quickly departs to the east by Wednesday with only
about a 10 percent chance of a residual shower or thunderstorm in
the mountains and deserts, mainly in LA County. If we do have a
fair amount of showers or thunderstorms across the area Tuesday,
lingering mid to high clouds may dismantle the normally dependent
marine layer clouds into Wednesday, especially near LA County.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...02/206 PM.

A building ridge will likely bring a return to above normal
temperatures by this weekend with the marine layer and associated
night to morning low clouds likely becoming squashed to near the
coast, sheltering these areas from the worst of the heat. Triple
digit heat is possible for the hottest inland valleys with
widespread highs in the 80s and 90s in play for other areas away
from the coast. Consider making appropriate preparations if
planning on being outdoors this weekend. Otherwise more June-like
weather this weekend with breezy onshore winds with no additional
showers or thunderstorms expected.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1815Z.

At around 18Z at KLAX, there was no recent sounding data
available.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in TAF for KSBA. There is a 20% chance for
very brief VFR conds after 22Z.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, and KVNY. Timing of
flight cat changes may be off +/- 2 hours (highest uncertainty
for KBUR/KVNY) and minimum flight cat may be off by one cat.

High confidence in arrival of low clouds later this evening at
remaining sites. There is a 40% chance for brief clearing at KOXR
today, and a 10% chance for no clearing at KCMA. Immediate
coastal sites may bounce between SCT and BKN cigs frequently this
afternoon. Lower confidence in the timing of arrival of cigs
tonight (+/- 2 hours arrival time). Minimum flight cat may be off
by one cat, especially between 05Z and 15Z. However, MVFR cigs
are generally expected when low clouds are present.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. High confidence in return of
low clouds, but lower confidence in timing (+/- 2 hours). However,
conds might bounce between SCT and BKN012-025 this afternoon
before clouds return OVC through tomorrow. High confidence in no
significant east wind component through the period.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival of low clouds may be
off +/- 3 hours. There is a 30% chance for IFR cigs/vsbys once low
clouds arrive.

&&

.MARINE...02/1238 PM.

For the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level seas of 10
feet will continue in the central and northern zones tonight.
There is a 40% chance for SCA seas in the southern waters through
tonight. Otherwise, conditions look to remain below advisory
criteria through the week, with the exception of a 30% chance for
SCA winds from Point Conception south to San Nicolas Island
Tuesday afternoon and evening.

For the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, high confidence
in conditions remaining below SCA criteria through the week.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, high confidence in conditions
remaining below SCA criteria through the week, however, there is
a chance (30%) for winds to approach SCA levels Tuesday afternoon
and evening in the western portion.

For the Inner Waters off the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts,
high confidence in conditions remaining below SCA levels through
the week. However, there is a chance (20%) for winds to near SCA
levels Tuesday afternoon and evening near Malibu and the southern
coast of the Palos Verdes Peninsula.

An approaching upper level low pressure system entering the region
will bring a 15% chance of thunderstorms across the waters south
of Point Conception Tuesday mid-day through late night. Any
thunderstorm could produce gusty and erratic winds, lightning,
heavy downpours, and hail.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday afternoon
      for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...RM

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox