871
FXUS66 KLOX 071232
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
532 AM PDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Updated Aviation Discussion

.SYNOPSIS...07/208 AM.

A warming trend will continue today as high pressure aloft builds
into the Four Corners Region. The hottest temperatures are
expected away from the coast, but a shallow marine layer depth
wedged in place will keep temperatures closer to normal along the
coast. Some cooling is expected for Friday and into the weekend,
but away from the coast, above normal temperatures are expected to
linger.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...07/326 AM.

The latest water vapor imagery indicates an upper-level ridge of
high pressure over Far West Texas this morning, while an upper-
level trough of low pressure continues move through British
Columbia. A low cloud field can be seen well-entrenched along the
Central Coast, through the Santa Barbara Channel and into the
Ventura County coastal plain on the latest fog product imagery. A
shallow marine layer depth is creating dense fog across some
portions of the coast and into the coastal valleys this morning
and a dense fog advisory has been added for all coastal sections
from Point Mugu northward. Subsiding air aloft with the high
pressure system is pressing down on top of the marine intrusion
and fitting it into a smaller vertical area. The latest AMDAR
soundings from KLAX indicate a marine layer depth around 600 feet
deep currently with the marine layer depth likely slightly deeper
along the Central Coast due to being closer to the trough`s
influence to the north.

The trough`s influence will likely keep onshore flow and a
shallow marine layer depth in place at the surface over the coming
days. Dense fog issues may linger for the next nights and mornings
as a thin marine layer depth will continue. Outside of the marine
layer depth into the valleys, mountains, and desert, a warming
trend will likely peak today. Hot temperatures, approaching
advisory levels, will be the other main story. The hottest
locations will see daytime high temperatures between 100 and 105
degrees this afternoon. Temperatures between 5 and 10 degrees
above normal will be common away from the coast, sitting just shy
of heat advisory criteria and about 5 to 10 degrees below record
levels for today.

Outside of the low clouds, mostly sunny skies will likely persist
with periods of scattered high clouds over the region. The latest
high-resolution ensemble members suggest some smoke from the
Gifford Fire shifting to the south today and into tonight. A
milky brown sunshine could be prevalent this afternoon and into
sunset across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties due to
elevated smoke particles from the fire.

Slight cooling for Friday and through the weekend as onshore flow
will increase and bring a degree or two of cooling each day, but
temperatures outside of the marine intrusion will still remain
above normal. Hot temperatures with very little change are
expected across the interior valleys.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...07/313 AM.

The latest forecast ensembles suggest a warmer than normal weather
pattern remaining in place away from the coast. At the earliest,
the most significant cooling may be delayed until Monday or
Tuesday. Ensemble pressure gradients indicates onshore flow
strengthening a bit each day through midweek next week, then the
onshore flow leans toward weakening for next weekend. With
cluster analysis of the 500 mb heights suggesting the ridge
remaining anchored over the Four Corners Region and a trough in
place along the West Coast, it is reasonable to assume that a
warmer air mass will remain in place away from the coast, while
the beaches and immediate coastal locales will remain closer to
normal in onshore flow.

EPS ensemble members do indicate some northerly winds coming into
the equation between Monday and Thursday at KSBA and KSDB. Gusty
Sundowner winds are possible each evening across southern Santa
Barbara County. Through the Interstate 5 Corridor, marginally
gusty northerly winds could develop each night and morning.

&&

.AVIATION...07/1231Z.

Around 12Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 500 ft deep. The
top of the inversion was around 2900 ft with a temp near 27 C.

High confidence in desert TAFs, KBUR, and KVNY TAFs. Low to moderate
confidence in remainder of TAFs.

Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 3 hours. Cigs
could scatter and reform multiple times through 17Z Thu at KSBP
and KSMX. There is a 40% chance that conds remain VFR at KSMO,
KLAX, and KLGB through the period. LIFR to IFR cigs could return
as early as 03Z Fri at KSMX. There is a 50% chance of LIFR- IFR
conds at KSBA through 18Z Thu. There is a low to moderate chance
of MVFR visibility reductions at KSBA due to smoke from the
Gifford fire.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes
could be off by +/- 3 hours, and there is a 40% chance of conds
remaining VFR through the period. Any easterly winds will remain
less than 7 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...07/1219 AM.

For the outer waters, moderate to high confidence in the current
forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are expected for all
the outer waters through tonight, and for the outer waters south
of Point Sal Friday and Friday night. Conds are expected to remain
sub advisory over the weekend, followed by moderate chances for
SCA level winds south of Point Sal next week.

For the inner waters north of Pt. Sal, moderate confidence in the
current forecast. SCA level wind gusts are expected this
afternoon through late tonight. This will be followed by benign
conditions through the weekend.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence
in the current forecast. There is a 20-30% chc of SCA level wind
gusts at times across the western portion of the Santa Barbara
Channel through Sunday, mainly during the late afternoon and
evening hours. Increasing chances for SCA conds are expected
across the SBA channel next week, with the potential to impact
eastern portions. Local gusts to 21 kt are possible each afternoon
and evening near Point Dume and across the San Pedro Channel
through the weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning for
      zones 340-341-346-347-349-350-354-355. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone
      670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...Black/Ciliberti/Lund
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox