461
FXUS65 KVEF 162248
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
348 PM PDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures today will give way to
cooler, unsettled weather going into the weekend. A storm system
will bring gusty winds Thursday and Friday with the chance for
showers and a few thunderstorms across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Friday Night.

A complicated weather pattern is setting up over the next few days
as low pressure off the southern California coast slowly transitions
to an open wave and moves ashore. As it translates eastward,
southwesterly wind will pick up in the western Mojave Desert,
bringing winds gusting to 40 mph or more. As such a Wind Advisory
begins this afternoon and lasts into Friday morning for that area.
To add to the complexity, a strong, cold low pressure system will be
diving southward from western Canada. The associated cold front will
bring strong northerly winds gusting 45 to 50 mph to Esmeralda and
central Nye counties. A wind advisory is in place for those areas
from Thursday morning through Friday evening. The cold front will
also bring showers and thunderstorms to much of southern Nevada and
Mohave County Thursday. Lift associated with the front and
instability due to the cold upper airmass behind the front will make
thunderstorms a real possibility Thursday afternoon and evening.
Rainfall totals will generally be low, below 0.10 inches with
northern Mohave County receiving around .25 inches. Locally higher
rainfall totals are possible in stringer thunderstorm cells. The
highest elevations in the mountains could see a small bit of snow,
but nothing impactful. Very dry and cool air will be in place Friday
with temperatures across southern Nevada and northwest Arizona a
good 10 degrees below normal.


.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday.

As we head into the weekend, ensemble guidance has the closed low
pushing out to the east, leaving us under a drier northwesterly or
zonal flow. Not only do precipitation chances wane, but temperatures
begin to moderate to seasonal values. By Sunday, forecast highs are
near or slightly above normal, and hold fairly steady into next
week. The synoptic pattern in the extended will favor inside sliders
or shortwaves passing well to our north. As these move by, periods
of gusty winds are possible.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast
Package...Southeast winds will quickly turn to the south-southwest
by early evening with sustained speeds around 12 knots and
occasional gusts to 20 knots. Winds will gradually diminish after
05Z, but occasional gusts to 20 knots will still be possible
throughout the night.  A period of lighter winds is forecast around
daybreak tomorrow, but gusty southwest winds will return after 17Z
and persist into tomorrow evening.  VFR conditions will continue
into Thursday morning.  A frontal system moving into the valley
tomorrow afternoon will bring the chance of a few convective showers
after 21Z. An isolated thundershower can also not be ruled out,
which could result in a period of gusty, erratic winds.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Conditions at the Las
Vegas area terminals will be similar to what is described above for
Harry Reid, except winds will remain mainly southerly at KHND
through the period.  Scattered showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms will persist over the higher terrain surrounding KBIH
into this evening, with winds remaining erratic due to the nearby
convective activity. After sunset, winds will settle in a northerly
direction and remain from that direction into tomorrow.  Winds at
KDAG will remain westerly through the period, with gusts increasing
to near 40 knots by late tomorrow morning.  In the lower Colorado
River Valley, the typical south to southwest winds with occasional
gusts to 25 knots can be expected through tomorrow.  Away from any
shower activity, VFR conditions will prevail with bases remaining
10kft AGL or higher.  Additional showers and embedded thundershowers
are likely tomorrow across the Sierra and areas near and north of
Las Vegas.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Berc
LONG TERM...Woods
AVIATION...Planz

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