356
FXUS66 KLOX 270338
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
838 PM PDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...26/837 PM.

Isolated showers will be possible through this evening. Then some
more light showers will be possible along the Central Coast later
tonight into Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, another cool day is
expected across the area on Sunday. Dry and warmer weather on
Monday, then warmest on Tuesday before a cooling trend develops
for the latter part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...26/837 PM.

Cold upper level low pressure system shifting eastward tonight,
currently centered over the Mojave Desert, and expected to be
near the California/Nevada border by midnight. Shower activity
has tapered off this evening in terms of coverage and intensity
as compared to earlier today. Most of the shower activity is
now centered north of our forecast area in Kern County. Another
vort max will drop down the back side of the low pressure
sytem brining another round of scattered showers overnight
into Sunday morning across much of San Luis Obispo and Santa
Barbara counties, with the highest chances (40-60%) north of Point
Conception. With the upper level flow turning more northwesterly,
chances of additional showers are diminishing across Ventura and
LA counties, however there is still a 10-15 percent chance for
these areas. Snow levels will continue to be 4000-5000 feet
tonight.

*** From previous discussion ***

Temperatures will remain 10-15 degrees below normal on Sunday.
Gusty westerly winds will develop Sunday afternoon, mainly near
the coast.

Temperatures will warm up several degrees Monday and Tuesday with
highs reaching the lower 80s for the warmer valleys Tuesday and
low 70s coastal areas except mid to high 60s right at the
beaches.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...26/105 PM.

Very low impact weather for second half of next week. After the
warm up earlier in the week, temperatures will trend slightly
cooler Wed-Sat as a weak trough sets up over California.
Highs will drop a few degrees to near to slightly below normal.
Onshore flow will be increasing as well, likely leading to a
return of marine layer stratus for some coastal areas. Friday and
Saturday there is a possibilty of some gusty Sundowner winds
across southern Santa Barbara County. Otherwise, a pretty quiet
week of weather.

&&

.AVIATION...27/0052Z.

At 0015Z at KLAX, there was a deep moist layer around 15,000 ft
deep.

High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in the remainder of TAFs. The main rain band
has moved east of most terminals outside of LA County. Periods
of -SHRA may impact all sites through Sunday morning, with
highest chances for coastal sites. Conds may bounce between VFR
and MVFR at points as there are several cloud decks. LIFR to MVFR
conds can occur during any period of SHRA/RA, but will likely be
short lived.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. The main rain band has moved
on, but spotty -SHRA is possible at times through Sunday morning.
IFR to MVFR conds are possible during any periods of rain.
BKN025-050 likely through much of the period. No significant east
wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. The main rain band has moved
on, but small chance(20%) of -SHRA is possible at times through
Sunday morning. IFR to MVFR conds are possible during any periods
of rain. BKN025-050 likely through much of the period.

&&

.MARINE...26/759 PM.

Moderate confidence in forecast.

For the Outer Waters, there is a 30% chance of SCA level wind
gusts for western portions of PZZ676 through late tonight.
Widespread chances for SCA conds will increase (60-80%) Sun
afternoon thru at least Tues night. There is a 20-40% chance of
SCA level winds Wed, highest over the northern waters.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, conditions are expected
to remain below SCA Criteria through Sun morning. SCA winds are
possible during the afternoon/eve hours Sun thru Tues (50-60%
chance).

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, there is a 30%
chance of SCA level winds across the Santa Barbara Channel through
late this evening. Thereafter, chances increase to >80% across
the entire SBA Channel and 40% for southern Inner Waters off the
LA and OC coasts on Sunday, including nearshore. There is a 30-50%
chance of SCA level winds for western portions of SBA Channel Mon
afternoon/eve. Much lower chances Tue through Wed.

Across the waters, rain showers will be possible over the northern
sections through Sun morning. Seas are generally expected to
remain below SCA levels through the work week. However, seas could
approach SCA Criteria at times across far western portions of the
Outer Waters through Wednesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect from 6 AM PDT Sunday
      through Wednesday evening for zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 11 PM PDT
      this evening for zones 378>380. (See LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT
      Monday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Sunday to 9 PM PDT
      Tuesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Gomberg/MW
AVIATION...Gomberg/Lewis
MARINE...Lewis/Smith
SYNOPSIS...MW/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox