192
FXUS66 KSGX 141120
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
320 AM PST Tue Jan 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of gusty northeast to east Santa Ana winds will continue
into Wednesday along and below the coastal slopes of the mountains
with winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph and isolated gusts
to 65 mph. It will continue to be very dry inland on Thursday,
but with weaker winds. Cooler on Friday and Saturday as a weak
low pressure system may move inland somewhere in the vicinity of
northern Baja. There is a slight chance of light precipitation for
the weekend, mainly for San Diego County from the coast to the
mountains, with the chance for wetting precipitation around 10
percent. Gusty Santa Ana winds could return early next week but
with some model differences in timing and a wider and fairly even
distribution in intensity from weak to strong.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Areas of northeasterly to easterly Santa Ana winds will continue
into Wednesday afternoon with winds of 25 to 35 mph along and
below the coastal slopes of the mountains with gusts to 55 mph and
isolated gusts to 65 mph. As of 3 AM, the stronger gusts are
mostly to around 45 mph. Lowest humidity for inland areas will
fall to around 10 percent each day through Wednesday with poor
overnight recovery and only a slight recovery on Thursday with
weaker winds.

High temperatures will be warmer for today and Wednesday, then a
little cooler for the coast and valleys on Thursday. High
temperatures on Wednesday will be around 5 degrees above average
for the coast and valleys and a few degrees below average for the
mountains and deserts with most areas within a few degrees of
average on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)...
A weak low pressure system well off the coast of northern Baja may
move inland across northern Baja and far southern California on
Thursday night bringing onshore flow and cooling for Friday and
Saturday.

There is greater model spread in weak upper level low pressure
systems move southward in the vicinity of the California coast
from just off to just inland from the coast. One or more of these
weak systems could bring some light precipitation over the
weekend, but with low confidence in the details. NBM has a slight
chance of showers over the weekend, mainly across San Diego
County from the coast to the mountains, with a 15 to 25 percent
chance of 0.01 inch or more of precipitation and around a 20
percent chance for 0.10 inch or more of precipitation. The snow
level will be around 5000 feet.

Gusty Santa Ana winds could return early next week but
with some model differences in timing and a wider and fairly even
distribution in intensity from weak to strong.

&&

.AVIATION...
141030Z...Clear skies will continue today and tonight. Areas of
gusty northeast winds 30-40 kt, locally to 50 kt, will continue
mainly in all foothills, northern Inland Empire, and inland Orange
County, along with local LLWS and locally strong up/downdrafts.
Strongest winds will generally be 16-00Z. After 00Z, areas of
gusty winds will become more isolated and confined to foothills.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Areas of gusty northeast to east Santa Ana winds will continue
into Wednesday along and below the coastal slopes of the mountains
with winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph and isolated gusts
to 65 mph. Lowest daytime humidity will fall to around 10 percent
for inland areas with poor overnight recovery. It will continue to
be very dry inland on Thursday, but with weaker winds. Cooler on
Friday and Saturday with a recovery in humidity as a weak low
pressure system may move inland somewhere in the vicinity of
northern Baja.

There is a slight chance of light precipitation for the weekend,
mainly for San Diego County from the coast to the mountains, with
the chance for wetting precipitation around 10 percent. Gusty
Santa Ana winds could return early next week but with some model
differences in timing and a wider and fairly even distribution in
intensity from weak to strong.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM PST Wednesday for Orange County Inland
     Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County
     Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The
     Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County
     Valleys-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning-Santa Ana Mountains
     and Foothills.

     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM PST Wednesday for Orange County
     Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-Including The San
     Jacinto Ranger District Of The San Bernardino National
     Forest-San Bernardino County Mountains-Including The
     Mountain Top And Front Country Ranger Districts Of The San
     Bernardino National Forest-San Bernardino and Riverside
     County Valleys  -The Inland Empire-San Diego County Inland
     Valleys-San Diego County Mountains-Including The Palomar
     And Descanso Ranger Districts of the Cleveland National
     Forest-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning-Santa Ana Mountains-
     Including The Trabuco Ranger District of the Cleveland
     National Forest.

     Frost Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for San Bernardino
     and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM