376
FXUS66 KMTR 141101
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
401 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 253 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Cool coastside, warmer daytime highs inland and quiet weather
continues through the forecast period. Dry conditions persist
across high terrain, leading to elevated grass fire danger.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Stratus cloud cover is limited early this morning so far compared
to stratus cloud coverage this time yesterday morning. Satellite
shows a few areas of cirrus and patchy coastal stratus developing.
Friday afternoon`s drying on northwest winds decidedly mixed out
the stratus, a signature of a robust mid-latitude dry air intrusion
with surface dew point temps (water vapor) still limited at this
hour and stratus trying to get a foothold. Aside from cirrus possibly
slowing radiational cooling a little, much of the troposphere is
dry with the precipitable water (0.44" i.e. near the 10th percentile
for mid June) on Friday evening`s Oakland upper air sounding. It`s
chilly again with 40s/50s this morning across low lying elevations
while it`s milder in the 60s at elevation in the hills/mtn tops in
the lower level temperature inversion. Daytime highs today will be
about the same as yesterday`s with highs upper 50s/60s coastside
to the 70s/80s/lower 90s inland, warmest to hottest farthest
inland.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Sunday`s weather will be about the same as today`s, not much
change in morning lows and daytime highs. On Monday a weak and
dry 500 mb trough will pass eastward across our forecast area
then become replaced by increasing 500 mb heights (ridging)
Tuesday. By later Wed-Thu the global models forecast strengthening
of the surface high over the Eastern Pacific and lowering of
surface pressures over the Central Valley. As mentioned yesterday
morning, a steepening in the northerly ACV-SFO pressure gradient
and winds is forecast. Surface theta-e on the latest ECMWF still
shows a reinforcement of cooler and drier air arriving from the
northwest Wednesday evening and night. This stronger northerly
pattern may temporarily bump up daytime highs a few degrees above
normal during mid week with cooling returning late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 400 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Currently a mixed bag of MVFR-VFR at the terminals with very little
stratus presentation across the region with a marine layer of 1,000
feet being observed on the Fort Ord profiler. Expect stratus to
expand in coverage, but the TAFs should hold. While the pattern
largely remains unchanged, heights will ever so slightly build which
will likely result in the marine layer compressing tonight,
impacting coastal terminals at the least.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow. High
confidence in VFR prevailing today. Westerly winds will prevail
through the TAF period with gusts up to 30 knots to be expected.
There`s a 60% probability for sub-VFR ceilings returning to the
terminal tonight, for now have decided to be optimistic given the
dismal stratus coverage at the moment.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently MVFR with southerly flow at MRY
and MVFR and calm at SNS. VFR and westerly winds will prevail by
late-morning with MVFR ceilings returning tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes, near gale force gusts,  and
moderate to rough seas will prevail through Wednesday.  Localized
gale force gusts will develop near the coastal jet  regions of
Point Reyes and Point Sur during the afternoon and  evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions prevail through the weekend.
Night/morning marine layer will remain with cooler temperatures
and excellent humidity recovery at lower elevations. Above the
marine layer (higher hills/mts) and areas not directly impacted by
the marine layer will see moderate to poor humidity recoveries.
The lack of humidity recovery will keep finer fuels, like grasses,
drier and more susceptible to fire starts. Additionally, given the
onshore flow, winds will be gusty each afternoon/evening for inland
valleys (Salinas Valley), and gaps/passes.

The large view for the interior Central Coast shows ERC values
barely exceeding average, burn index close to seasonal averages,
and 100 hr fuel moisture slightly below seasonal averages.

Marine layer will hover 1700-2100 feet the next few days.

MM

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday
     for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Canepa
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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