265
FXUS65 KVEF 091127
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
427 AM PDT Mon Jun 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Hot weather will continue through midweek with only
very modest cooling advertised thereafter. Mostly dry conditions
are expected although some isolated thundershowers will be
possible across the southern Great Basin the next couple days.
Drier air and breezy conditions will move in for the second half
the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...through Wednesday.
Hot weather will remain the focus of the short term period, with
broad high pressure built in across the Western US. There is a
very weak low undercutting this ridge but it`s influence is pretty
minimal, however, lingering anomalous mid-level moisture persists
across central and northern Nevada, and this moisture will benefit
from the added lift of the weak low to spark a few weak afternoon
and evening thundershowers across the southern Great Basin. Gusty
winds and very brief light rain are the main impacts with these
showers, which will be largely confined to Lincoln, Esmeralda, and
central Nye Counties. Otherwise, temperatures will continue their
upward trajectory today and Tuesday, with major heat risk
continuing to be advertised across parts of the Mojave Desert. The
Extreme Heat Warning continues to look good through Tuesday. Some
consideration was given to an extension into Wednesday,
especially for eastern Inyo County, but overall major heat risk
coverage reduces drastically on Wednesday thanks to 1-3 degrees of
regional cooling. So will continue to monitor the trends for but
for now held off on any extensions in time.
.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday.
Heading into Thursday, flow aloft over the region will transition
to southwesterly ahead of a trough taking shape over the West
Coast. Much of the energy associated with this trough will remain
well to the northwest of the area, though periodic shortwaves
translating over the region will produce intermittent breezy
conditions across the region through the upcoming weekend. While
temperatures will be slightly cooler than earlier in the week due
to decreased thicknesses ahead of the trough, it will hardly be
noticeable, as temperatures still remain around 5 to 8 degrees
above normal, with many locations across the valleys remain in the
90s and lower 100s. Little change to the overall pattern is
expected through the end of the week, though ensembles and cluster
analyses indicate that the ridge east of the Rockies will amplify
and retrograde toward the Four Corners, not only limiting the
eastward progression of the aforementioned trough, but yielding
another warm up as heights begin increasing once again. If this
pattern holds, additional periods of Extreme Heat would be
possible by late in the weekend, with no chance of rain.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...
Overall, winds will remain less than 10 knots and follow typical
diurnal directional trends into this afternoon. The wind forecast
becomes a bit more challenging after that with several models
developing isolated convection north of the valley, and then pushing
outflow boundaries into the valley as early as 21Z. The current TAF
includes a northerly shift by 00Z, which is an average of the
different model timings. Given the uncertainties in the development
and evolution of this convection, the confidence in the timing and
magnitude of this wind shift is low. Regardless of the winds in the
late afternoon and evening, the typical southwest drainage winds are
expected to develop by late evening and continue into Tuesday
morning. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with any
bases remaining AOA 12kft AGL. Temperatures are expected to exceed
100F between 20Z and 03Z, peaking near 105F around 00Z.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Winds across the region
will generally follow typical diurnal patterns, except for the Las
Vegas Valley terminals, northern Inyo County, and the Southern Great
Basin, where outflow winds from afternoon convection may result in
variable and briefly elevated and gusty winds. Typical gusty
westerly winds are also forecast near KDAG during the evening and
early night hours. VFR conditions prevail, with mid and high clouds
affecting areas north of I-15 during the afternoon and evening. Near
any convection, CIGs may briefly fall to 10kft AGL, and visibilities
could be reduced due to heavy rainfall.
&&
.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record.
The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).
MAX MON, JUN 9 TUE, JUN 10 WED, JUN 11
Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr)
Las Vegas 111(1985) 109(2022)* 109(2022)*
Bishop 104(2013) 103(2022)* 104(2022)*
Needles 118(1955) 121(1910) 122(1918)
Daggett 110(1985) 110(1994)* 110(2022)
Kingman 106(1955) 109(1921) 107(1918)
Desert Rock 105(2013)* 104(2022)* 105(2022)*
Death Valley 126(2013) 125(2013) 122(2022)
The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).
WARM MIN MON, JUN 9 TUE, JUN 10 WED, JUN 11
Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr)
Las Vegas 86(2016) 84(2014)* 89(2022)
Bishop 61(2010) 65(1985) 62(1973)
Needles 87(2022) 88(1902) 90(2022)
Daggett 77(2014)* 77(2014)* 80(2022)*
Kingman 76(1978) 76(1955) 74(1921)*
Desert Rock 86(2016) 79(2016) 83(2022)
Death Valley 96(2013) 92(2016)* 94(2022)*
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Outler
LONG TERM...Phillipson
AVIATION...Planz
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