471
FXUS66 KLOX 200134
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
634 PM PDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Updated aviation section

.SYNOPSIS...19/220 PM.

A cooling trend will continue through Saturday as low pressure
develops along the West Coast. Increasing night and morning low
clouds and fog are expected as well. Gusty northerly winds are
expected across southern Santa Barbara County, through the
Interstate 5 Corridor and for other interior areas for the next
several nights. Below normal temperatures are expected into next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...19/217 PM.

There were a few low clouds along some of the beaches early this
afternoon and these may persist until late today. Otherwise,
sunny skies prevailed across the region which will continue
through sunset. A rapid increase in onshore pressure gradients
were noted into the afternoon, with the NAM fcst LAX-DAG gradient
topping out around +9.7 mb at 00Z this afternoon, while the LAX-
BFL gradient is expected to be +5.7 mb at that time. These onshore
gradients will help to bring gusty NW winds to the Central Coast
and SW SBA County by mid to late this afternoon, as well as gusty
W-NW winds from the I-5 Corridor of NW L.A. County to the Antelope
Vly. Gusty NW winds will also affect portions of the Santa Lucia
range and Salinas River Vly starting late today or early this
evening. Winds gusts are expected to reach Advisory levels for
many of these areas and a series of Wind Advisories have been
issued. Elsewhere this afternoon into this evening, breezy to
gusty SW-NW winds will affect many other areas as well.

Temps this afternoon will be several degrees cooler in all areas
compared to the last few days, but remain 4-8 deg above normal for
most areas, except dropping to a few deg below normal for the
Central Coast into the Santa Ynez Vly. The warmest vlys and lower
mtns should top out in the mid 80s to mid 90s, except around 100
for the Antelope vly.

A broad upper level trof will prevail over the region through
Sun, altho the lowest H5 heights will be Sat night and early Sun
at around 575-579 dam. A broad W to WSW flow aloft will prevail
thru the period.

A marine layer pattern for the most part can be expected tonight
thru Sun, with varying amounts of night and morning low clouds and
fog for the coast and vlys, altho the extent of the low clouds
may be a bit less Sat night into Sun morning due to some northerly
offshore flow and offshore pressure gradients and trends.

Winds will continue to be factor in the fcst thru Fri night and
possible into Sat as strong onshore gradients persist. The
strongest winds will likely be Fri night for SW SBA County and
into the L.A. county mtns including the I-5 Corridor and portions
of the highway 14 corridor. The Wind Advisories are in effect thru
late Fri night for many of these areas. Please see the latest
Non-Precipitation Weather Message (LAXNPWLOX) for further details.

Temps are forecast to be about 10 degrees cooler on Friday then
another 2 to 5 deg cooler on Sat before warming back up several
deg on Sun due to the offshore gradients. Highs will be several
deg below normal in all areas Fri thru Sun, coolest on Sat at
6-12 deg or more below normal for many inland areas.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...19/218 PM.

EC and GFS in generally good agreement during the extended. The
upper level trof will linger over srn CA Mon and Tue, then some
upper level ridging should move into the area Wed and Thu.

Night and morning marine layer clouds and some fog is expected
for much of the coast and vlys each day thru the extended period.
Breezy to gusty SW to NW winds can be expected each afternoon into
the evening. Temps should continue to be several deg below
seasonal norms Mon and Tue, then warm to slightly below normal on
Wed and to near normal to slightly above normal on Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...20/0131Z.

Around 00Z, the marine layer depth was around 1600 feet deep at
KLAX. The top of the inversion was 2500 feet with a temperature
near 22 degrees Celsius.

High confidence in the current forecast for desert terminals.
Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast for coastal
and valley terminals. Higher confidence exists in flight
categories. Less confidence exists in timing. Timing of arrival
could be off by four hours and clearing off by up to two hours.

IFR to MVFR conditions will spread back into most coastal and
valley terminals overnight. There is a low chance that flight
categories could be one category higher than forecast.

There is a moderate chance of moderate to strong low-level wind
shear and turbulence at terminals from KSBA north through 05Z, and
after 22Z.

KLAX...MVFR conditions will continue to spread into KLAX through
09Z. There is a 30 percent chance of IFR conditions between 02Z
and 09Z. VFR conditions could develop as soon as 16Z, or as late
as 20Z.

KBUR...IFR to MVFR conditions will spread in as early as 06Z, or
as late as 10Z. Higher confidence exists in MVFR conditions, but
there is a 40 percent chance of IFR conditions from arrival until
15Z. VFR conditions could develop as soon as 16Z, or as late as
18Z.

&&

.MARINE...19/1124 AM.

***HAZARDOUS SEAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY***

High confidence in prolonged upper-end Gale Force northwest winds
beyond 20 miles from shore late this afternoon through Saturday
night. Moderate confidence in gusts of 30 to 35 knots impacting
the nearshore Central Coast waters and western Santa Barbara
Channel each afternoon and evening during this stretch. All waters
will see building and hazardously steep short period seas. Small
craft should stay in safe harbor, especially in the afternoon and
evening hours.

High confidence in lowering winds and subsiding seas for the first
half of next week, with abnormally large high tides each evening.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT Friday for
      zones 340-341-346-347. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 342-343-349-351-379-381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory now in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone
      378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until midnight PDT tonight for zone
      650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Sirard
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...RK/Lund
SYNOPSIS...MW/Sirard

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox