038
FXUS66 KSTO 042001
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1201 PM PST Sat Jan 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions prevail with a gradual warming trend. Patchy
morning fog in the Valley on Sunday. Periods of gusty north to
east winds next week, strongest on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Latest GOES-West visible satellite imagery depicts some mid to
high level clouds passing over interior northern California, early
on this Saturday afternoon, with a few light radar returns being
observed up in the northern mountains and southern Cascades
bringing light precipitation of a few hundredths of an inch. The
fog from this morning has lifted, allowing for improved
visibilities in the Valley, and the Dense Fog Advisory was
therefore cancelled earlier this morning. Patchy fog will be
possible in the Valley again Sunday morning, and then increasing
offshore winds may be a limiting factor for fog development early
to mid next week.

Drier and gradually warmer weather returns to the region today as
high pressure builds back into the region, and will continue
through the weekend and next week. Relative humidity will begin to
trend lower each day, especially along the ridgetops. An inside
slider type pattern will set up early next week, allowing for
gusty north to east winds to develop across the area. The latest
wind gust forecast has trended slightly higher. Winds begin to
increase late Monday and persist into Wednesday, with the
strongest winds on Tuesday. The National Blend of Models (NBM)
projects a 35 to 65 percent probability of wind gusts of 40 mph or
greater along and west of Interstate 5 in the Valley. For the
higher elevation ridgetops and in the mountain/foothill gaps and
canyons there is a 50 to 80 percent probability of wind gusts of
50 mph or greater. Gusty winds may cause impacts to any loose
outdoor objects such as holiday decorations, bring down tree
branches with potential localized power outages, and create
difficult driving conditions for high profile vehicles on Tuesday.

Seasonable temperatures are in the forecast this weekend, but will
be gradually warming as we head into the work week. High
temperatures for the Valley will be in the 50s this weekend,
increasing to the low to mid 60s by Tuesday. As the slider drops
down, a few showers or snow showers may bring light precipitation
along the Sierra Crest south of Highway 50 late Monday into
Tuesday. Dry conditions will prevail elsewhere through the
forecast period. /KH

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)...
Ensemble guidance and cluster analysis generally indicate upper
level ridging over the Eastern Pacific Ocean/Pacific Northwest
with an upper level trough deepening over the Great Basin/Four
Corners region over the extended forecast period. This pattern
will result in periods of locally breezy north to east winds. The
National Blend of Models (NBM) currently advertises a 35 to 65
percent probability of wind gusts of 30 mph or greater mid to late
next week and into the weekend, mainly along and west of
Interstate 5 in the Valley, and in the mountain and foothill gaps
and canyons. Dry weather will prevail over this timeframe as well,
with lowering relative humidity, especially along the ridges, and
gradually rising temperatures to above normal for early to mid
January climatology. /KH

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions across interior NorCal until around 04z
Sunday when areas of patchy fog and low stratus are forecast to
develop. Best chances of MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions across the
central and southern Sacramento Valley`s, Delta, and northern San
Joaquin Valley. Northerly surface winds generally below 12 knots
except at KMOD where 12-18 knots are expected until around 00z
Sunday.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$