951 FXUS65 KVEF 161730 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1030 AM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry and windy conditions will result in elevated wildfire concerns today across portions of southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona, where a Red Flag Warning is in effect from 12 PM to 8 PM. * Dry and hotter-than-normal conditions persist through the end of the work week. * Gusty southwesterly winds return late-week into the weekend as a longwave trough drops temperatures across the region. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday. The Desert Southwest remains sandwiched between an area of low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and an area of high pressure over northern Mexico, resulting in a dry southwest flow aloft (and breezy southwest winds each afternoon). Today, a shortwave will push into the region, which will further increase southwesterly winds to 30 to 35 mph across the western Mojave Desert, Owens Valley, and higher terrain across the forecast area (20-30 mph elsewhere). There is a 30-50% chance of an isolated gust to 40 mph, but these will be isolated in space and time, so opted out of a Wind Advisory. These winds coupled with bone dry conditions will elevate wildfire concerns, so a Red Flag Warning has been hoisted from 12 PM to 8 PM today, as a result. Details can be found in the FIRE WEATHER section below. A ridge over the Desert Southwest originating from a high pressure centered over northern Mexico will continue to produce temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal normals for the region. Temperatures will drop slightly over the next couple of days as a result of a shortwave passage, but will rebound back to well-above-normal by Thursday. "Major" HeatRisk returns to desert valleys mid-to-late week, which may result in an additional heat-related headline. Of note, "Moderate" HeatRisk will creep into the higher elevations moreso late-week than it did on Father`s Day, meaning people will struggle to find heat relief by escaping to the mountains. This heat will peak Wednesday and Thursday before temperatures drop substantially through Sunday. Late-week, ensembles indicate that the Gulf of Alaska closed low will quickly push southward into the Great Basin. As the Desert Southwest remains sandwiched between this system and the northern Mexico high, pressure gradients will tighten, resulting in a return of breezy southwesterly winds between 25 and 35 mph on Thursday and Friday. Through the weekend, the low`s trough axis will push through our forecast area. The associated cold front will increase pre- frontal winds on Saturday, with speeds 35 to 45 mph and will drop temperatures below seasonal normals by the end of the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 12 PM to 8 PM today across southern Nevada (Zones 462, 464, 465, 466) and northwestern Arizona (Zones 101, 102). A shortwave trough will push into the region, resulting in gusty southwest winds. Speeds will generally range from 25 to 35 mph, with occasional gusts to 40 mph in the western Mojave Desert, Owens Valley, and the higher terrain of the forecast area. The Storm Prediction Center`s Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook has highlighted Clark County, northern Mohave County, and Washington County as "Critical". Increased risk of wildfire starts and spreads is a result of these breezy southwest winds coupled with single-digit minimum relative humidities and poor overnight recoveries (5-15%). Lighter wind speeds and marginally improved overnight RHs expected through midweek before gusty southwesterly winds return. SPC Fire Weather Outlook has a 40% contour for strong winds and low RH across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona Thursday through Saturday. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Gusty wind is still the primary concern. Winds will gradually veer from southerly to southwesterly through the afternoon, with gusts increasing to 25 to 30 knots. Gusts should decrease around sunset, although gusts of 15 to 20 knots could persist through much of the night before ending early Tuesday morning. Winds are expected to shift to northerly Tuesday morning, with speeds 10 knots or less. No operationally significant clouds or weather through the period. Temperatures will be 100 degrees or greater between 18Z-04Z, peaking at 108 degrees around 23Z. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Another round of gusty southwesterly to westerly wind is expected across the region through early this evening. Gusts of 20 to 30 knots will be common, with stronger gusts around 40 knots over the Sierra Nevada. Winds will decrease a little overnight, but intermittent gusts of 20 to 25 knots can be expected. No operationally significant clouds or weather expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Soulat AVIATION...Morgan For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter