506
FXUS64 KTSA 021744
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025
- Storm chances increase Monday night across northeast OK,
spreading through the entire area Tuesday. Severe weather is
possible.
- Daily shower and storm chances continue most days through the next
week.
- Heavy rain is expected at times over the next week, with multiple
inches of rainfall. This will lead to an increasing flash and
mainstem river flooding threat.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1106 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025
Convection has remained south of the Red River this morning and
is already on a downward trend as a shortwave trough continues
lifting east across the region. We will wait for the next impulse
to kick out ahead of the closed low over AZ before more showers
and storms arrive late this evening and overnight. For the
remainder of today expect occasionally breezy south winds with
highs climbing well into the 80s. Increasing moisture on the
southerly flow will aid cu development most notably across the
western portions of the CWA otherwise sunny to mostly sunny skies
will prevail.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025
Very warm weather continues Monday, with high temperatures again
surging into the mid to upper 80s as southerly flow brings warm and
moist air into the region. An upper level low will begin to impinge
on the area late this evening. CAM guidance shows the potential for
showers and thunderstorms to move into northeast OK this evening as
upper level dynamics improve. For now, the probability of severe
weather is low.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025
The better upper level dynamics arrive Tuesday with a surface front
also moving in. Forecast soundings show sufficient instability and
wind shear to support some severe weather potential, particularly
Tuesday afternoon or evening. Wind profiles would support fairly
quick upscale growth of any convection, so wind will most likely
be the primary severe hazard, though instances of hail and a
tornado or two are possible. Of additional concern, is very high
PWAT content (exceeding 2"), which is near the climatological max
for this time of year (99th percentile). Considering the amount
of rainfall of late, flood concerns will definitely be on the
rise. EPS EFI for precipitation shows values peaking around 0.8
with some SOT, a definite heavy rain signal. The cold front will
slowly slog south into Wednesday, with rain chances ending behind
the cold front northwest of I-44. Southeast of there, rain chances
will diminish, but not totally end, with a few scattered showers
holding on into Wednesday. High temperatures will only reach the
mid 70s with lows into the upper 50s to mid 60s (warmest south).
Low level flow will reverse Thursday with very humid air surging
back into the area. Meanwhile, upper level flow will become westerly
and strengthen. With plenty of moisture and instability, any minor
upper level wave will have the potential of kicking off showers and
thunderstorms. Model guidance shows just that, with nocturnal rounds
of showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday and again
Friday night into Saturday. By Sunday the flow becomes more
northwesterly, but daily nocturnal MCS activity appears poised to
continue into early next week. Moisture levels will remain elevated,
and the daily heavy rain chances will likely result in flash and
main stem river flood potential. The main uncertainty for this
period is the exact MCS trajectory. The positioning of the upper
level trough to the northeast, or the high to the west, will
ultimately impact how stormy this period is.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025
Gusty southeast winds and VFR ceilings will be the main flight
impacts this afternoon across the OK terminal with fewer cu but
still breezy conditions in AR. Winds calm some overnight with
LLWS possible at KBVO ahead of approaching storms. Latest guidance
brings a bit more confidence to convection impacting northern OK
terminals between 06-09Z. More uncertainty leads to a less
confident forecast after that with the possibility of additional
showers or storms impacting those sites after 12Z. Have included
MVFR ceilings in Prob30 group between 12Z-15Z with the likelihood
of some low clouds forming across northern OK into northwest AR.
Later updates may need to add a more definite MVFR period to the
pre- and post-dawn hours on Tuesday. Stronger south winds than
today will return by mid morning Tuesday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 71 82 62 76 / 30 60 90 20
FSM 70 89 70 83 / 10 10 70 60
MLC 72 85 64 79 / 10 30 90 40
BVO 69 81 58 76 / 40 70 80 10
FYV 68 85 65 79 / 10 20 80 60
BYV 69 86 67 78 / 10 20 70 70
MKO 71 84 64 76 / 10 40 90 40
MIO 71 83 63 74 / 20 50 90 30
F10 72 82 62 75 / 20 40 90 30
HHW 71 86 68 81 / 10 20 80 60
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...24