207
FXUS64 KLZK 172325
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
525 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1232 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

-Isolated to scattered showers into this morning, ahead of more
 widespread shower and thunderstorm activity primarily on Thursday

-Return of dry weather conditions for this weekend, with low rain
 chances returning Sunday into Monday

-Normal to above normal temperatures through Christmas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Isolated to scattered elevated convection across central to
southern Arkansas is bringing some localized light accumulations
early this morning as enhanced mid-level flow traverses eastward
downstream from an amplified trough across the Plains. These
showers and occasional storm will push eastward across the state
through the overnight hours, with most activity over by daybreak.

The aforementioned trough will remain somewhat stationary to the
west, keeping moist low-level southwesterly flow in place, thus
cloudy skies should persist throughout the day today and into
tonight. A second trough will quickly amplify across the Plains
and phase with the stationary trough going into Thursday, with
better dynamical support aloft resulting in a deepening surface
low pressure with a cold front moving from west to east across the
Natural State mostly on Thursday. Despite most areas receiving
measurable rain as the front moves across the state, total rain
amounts remain limited to around 0.10"-0.25", with higher amounts
favoring central to eastern Arkansas where there is around 10-25%
chance of exceeding 0.50".

Temperatures will continue to remain above normal levels, peaking
in the 60s tomorrow ahead of the cold frontal passage. A much
cooler airmass will settle in place on Friday as surface high
pressure builds, as highs will hover near normal levels in the
upper 40s to lower 50s.

Dry conditions expected to persist through most of the weekend as
highs rebound back into the 60s at least on Saturday. While there
is good agreement amongst ensemble and deterministic solutions on
zonal flow across the region setting up over the weekend and into
early next week, details on a weak shortwave increases
uncertainty on some low (10-30%) rain chances as early as the
overnight hours Saturday to as late as early Monday morning.

Heading into the middle of next week, higher certainty of drier
conditions exists as ridging takes hold across central CONUS.
Thus, taking an early peak at Christmas Eve and Christmas Day,
confidence is good that dry and warm conditions are in store mid
to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Expect flight category across all terminals for the entire duration
of the forecast period from Wednesday evening through Thursday
evening to remain degraded to as low as IFR to intermittent LIFR
flight category for lowered CIGS and VSBY. A lowered cloud deck and
associated periods of light rain and drizzle will be noted over the
forecast period along with low level wind shear at the sites of
KHRO, KBPK, and KLIT early Thursday morning. Surface winds will gust
in excess of 20+ knots beginning Thursday morning across all
terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     50  61  30  50 /  30  90   0   0
Camden AR         50  65  34  55 /  20  70   0   0
Harrison AR       51  58  28  53 /  30  70   0   0
Hot Springs AR    51  63  33  54 /  40  70   0   0
Little Rock   AR  50  63  33  51 /  30  80   0   0
Monticello AR     51  66  36  54 /  10  80   0   0
Mount Ida AR      52  64  33  56 /  50  70   0   0
Mountain Home AR  51  58  28  51 /  30  80   0   0
Newport AR        51  61  31  48 /  20  90   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     50  65  33  52 /  20  80   0   0
Russellville AR   52  64  33  54 /  40  80   0   0
Searcy AR         49  62  30  50 /  30  90   0   0
Stuttgart AR      51  63  33  50 /  10  80   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74