511 FXUS64 KLZK 121148 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 648 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 - Pattern once again turns unsettled with showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. - Several inches of rain will be possible with the heaviest of the rain likely falling Thursday afternoon and Friday night. - Stronger storms will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening with strong gusty winds the primary concern. - Hot and humid conditions return to the Arkansas around the middle to latter part of next week. Heat indices will exceed 100 degrees around the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 An unsettled weather pattern will continue through at least the weekend across Arkansas. Satellite this morning shows an upper low currently over the Texas Hill Country. Guidance continues to show the low will move quite slowly through Saturday as it becomes cut off from the overall prevailing flow. The upper low will move into eastern Oklahoma later today. Ahead of the low/trough, S/SE winds continue to bring in ample deep moisture into the state. Latest hi- res CAMs this morning shows an arc of showers and thunderstorms entering southwestern Arkansas around mid morning, then moving northeast toward central Arkansas by this afternoon. Ahead of the showers and thunderstorms, CAPE values this afternoon over portions of southeast,south, and far eastern Arkansas will be in the 1500- 2000J/kg range with bulk shear of 20-30 kts, thus, SPC has placed most of Arkansas in a marginal risk for strong to severe thunderstorms for today. The primary hazard with any strong to severe thunderstorm will be a strong or damaging wind gust this afternoon and evening. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms statewide are expected with some breaks as the low slowly moves into northeastern Oklahoma by later tonight, then the low/trough will traverse the Missouri/Arkansas line and slowly move eastward on Friday. As the low traverses the Arkansas/Missouri state line this weekend, it is expected to dissipate and becoming an open wave, but there are some difference between deterministic guidance on when that will occur this weekend. The open wave will finally push east of the area sometime Sunday into Monday with continued precipitation chances across Arkansas. In regards to precipitation totals this weekend, guidance shows the most likely period for heavy rainfall will be this afternoon/evening and again on Friday afternoon evening. Rainfall amounts of 2-3" common place over much of central Arkansas with slightly lower amounts over northern one to two rows of counties seeing 1 to 1.5" of rainfall. The highest precipitation amounts with 4-6" over portions of southwestern Arkansas with locally higher amounts through Saturday evening. A Flood Watch has been issued over portions of southwest and western Arkansas through Saturday evening as these areas will likely see the highest amounts this weekend. As we head into early next week, multiple shortwaves moving across the area from the west/northwest will keep precipitation chances in the forecast through Tuesday before ridging builds into the area toward the middle and latter part of next week. Temperatures through Friday will be a few degrees below normal through the weekend, then temperature will upward to a few degrees above normal by the middle and latter part of next week. Heat indices around the middle part of next week may approach or meet Heat Advisory criteria with temperatures in the lower 90s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 An arcing line of showers and isolated thunderstorms over south central Arkansas will move toward central Arkansas terminals within the next couple of hours. Hi-res cams shows another round of showers and thunderstorms moving northeast from the Arklatex region late this morning into the afternoon hours impacting southern terminals as early as 15z and central Arkansas terminals around 17z. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible after 00z, but confidence on timing/placement is too low to pinpoint. Flight conditions throughout the day, CIGs/VIS will be in a state of flux with mainly MVFR conditions expected with showers and thunderstorms, but some intermittent periods of IFR are possible. Winds will be light and mainly southerly with some variable winds with gusty winds in or near thunderstorms during the period. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 80 69 82 68 / 80 90 90 60 Camden AR 80 69 85 69 / 90 80 80 50 Harrison AR 76 67 77 66 / 80 80 80 40 Hot Springs AR 78 68 83 68 / 90 80 70 50 Little Rock AR 80 70 83 70 / 80 80 80 60 Monticello AR 85 70 86 72 / 90 70 80 50 Mount Ida AR 78 68 82 68 / 90 80 70 50 Mountain Home AR 78 67 78 67 / 70 80 90 50 Newport AR 82 70 83 70 / 60 80 90 60 Pine Bluff AR 83 70 85 69 / 80 80 80 60 Russellville AR 78 68 82 68 / 80 80 80 50 Searcy AR 81 68 83 68 / 80 80 80 60 Stuttgart AR 83 71 84 70 / 70 80 80 60 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Saturday evening for ARZ052>054-062-066-067- 137-140-141-237-240-241-340-341. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kelly AVIATION...Kelly