804 FXUS64 KMEG 121938 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 238 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 227 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon through late evening. There is a low chance (1/5) of a few severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the majority of the Mid-South. Damaging winds and flash flooding are the primary threats, but a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out through this evening. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue Friday through this weekend. At this time, the chances for severe thunderstorms appears limited. - Hot and humid conditions will develop next week, with isolated to scattered daytime showers and thunderstorms continuing. Heat indices will exceed 100 degrees by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Humidity has increased significantly across the Mid-South this afternoon, in the wake of a marine frontal passage. Dewpoints range from the upper 60s to lower 70s across the region, with temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 80s. A few diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms have popped up over the past hour, but have quickly dissipated due to the lack of upper level support. Aloft, a large upper low continues to churn near the ArkLaTex. This trough will eject a leading shortwave into the Lower Mississippi Valley through this evening. The current thermodynamic environment features a NW to SE gradient of 500 J/kg to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and steep low level lapse rates around 8.5 C/km. The favorable shear remains along and west of the Mississippi River, where up to 25 knots is currently available. However, this area still features -100 J/kg of CIN and low instability, keeping CI at bay. As we progress into the late afternoon/early evening hours, an area of convection near the ArkLaMiss will translate northeastward along the Delta and quickly advect in richer and deeper moisture. With ample instability and moderate shear in place by late afternoon, a Marginal Risk (1/5) of strong to severe thunderstorms is in place. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall are the main threats, however, a brief spin-up tornado cannot be ruled out as the low level jet ramps up to around 30 knots this evening. The majority of convective activity will lift north of the Mid- South just after midnight. Friday will see additional showers and thunderstorms throughout the day as the main trough slowly lifts northeast across the region. Instability will be more limited tomorrow afternoon, due to ongoing showers and thunderstorms and subsequent cloud cover. As PWATs remain elevated to near the 99th percentile, the threat of heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding will be in place. Additionally, with weak shear aloft, typical summertime microbursts will be more favorable with afternoon convective activity. Unsettled weather will persist into the weekend, as the stubborn upper trough slowly lifts out of the Tennessee Valley. Weak upper level northwest flow will build into the region in wake of the exiting trough. This will allow a few ridge-rider waves to translate SE through the Mid-South through early next week. Still too early to sort out storm mode, but an MCS or two could materialize in this pattern. Heat will increase across the region as we move into early next week. However, it looks to be short-lived as the ridge never fully establishes itself across the South. Another trough, embedded in the westerlies, will eject into the Lower Mississippi Valley by the middle of next week. This will bring more unsettled weather and potentially more organized convection to the region. AC3 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Tough TAFs this issuance. Main concern is TSRA with the movement of a frontal boundary this evening. As we remain in this summertime pattern, CAMs continue to struggle with exact timing of said convection. TEMPOs and PROB30s were drawn in to best fit thunderstorm activity. Ceilings will also drop from current VFR to MVFR and pockets of IFR as convection moves through this evening and early afternoon tomorrow. South/southwest winds will be at around 6-10 kts, with a few gusts up to 20 kts tomorrow afternoon. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 High humidity and wetting rain chances will continue through the weekend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...AEH