276 FXUS64 KMEG 012339 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 639 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 635 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 - A few isolated showers will move through the Mid-South this evening and tonight, otherwise dry conditions will prevail through at least Tuesday. - Precipitation chances will begin to increase by Wednesday afternoon, with showers likely through the end of the week and into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Sunny skies continue this afternoon across the Midsouth amidst surface high pressure and northwest flow aloft. An embedded shortwave is currently over the region, with some showers forming across southeastern Arkansas. Rain chances generally remain low (20-30%) throughout the majority of the area thanks to minimal upper forcing and MLCIN. The most likely area for shower formation will be along a surface front currently over west Kentucky where a few showers could find their way into northwest Tennessee this evening. However, satellite trends do show agitated CU across some portions of the area that could indicate lower MLCIN than anticipated and limited potential for a few stray showers away from the front. Surface high pressure will slide east through Tuesday, bringing southerly surface flow back to the region and warmer temperatures. NBM/HREF are both confident in highs in the mid to upper 80s tomorrow, with similar conditions retained by the NBM Tuesday. A few areas in north Mississippi could make a run at their first 90 degree day of the year. Persistent upper ridging and/or neutral height falls will keep the potential for showers and storms at bay during this time. By Wednesday, upper ridging begins to erode as a series of shortwaves and speed maxima eject from the Rockies. Increased surface moisture and height falls will begin to bring the chances for rainfall back to the region. A surface boundary will attempt to move into the region from the west Wednesday. However, most guidance stalls this feature across central Arkansas through Missouri with higher rain potential still off to our west. Model guidance does eventually move this boundary into NE Arkansas Thursday with rain showers through the afternoon and evening. The front will continue to slowly move south Friday with more rain/thunderstorm chances as another upper jet noses into the region from the west. Ensembles support the continuation of showery/stormy weather through the end of the period as the surface front meanders across the region. With several days of precipitation potential in late spring, the chance for severe storms increases as well. Upper flow and surface forcing is too weak for any concerns Wednesday and Thursday, but upper winds begin to increase Friday and into next weekend. In combination with a stalled boundary, multiple rounds of convection are possible in an environment capable of damaging winds and small hail Friday and Saturday. Additionally, portions of the Midsouth could see multiple days of rain, accumulations from Wednesday through the end of the period only reach up to 1-2" across portions of Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and west Tennessee. Given this precipitation falls over several days, the threat of flooding appears limited at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 VFR conds will continue. Canadian wildfire smoke is expected to stay well above the surface during this TAF period. Some light fog is likely at TUP later tonight. Expect light winds overnight becoming southerly on Monday and increasing slightly during the afternoon. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...SJM