318 FXUS64 KMEG 140429 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1129 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1123 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 - Significant river flooding will continue into early next week. - Dry weather and above normal temperatures are expected for Monday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday night but most locations will not see any rain. - Cooler temperatures will return to the region Tuesday and Wednesday. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to return to the Midsouth Friday night and continue into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Skies remain sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s. High pressure was centered over the southeast U.S. With the high to our east, south winds will continue to bring mild air into the region. Temperatures will remain above normal tonight with lows Monday morning in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Monday will remain dry and warm as highs reach the upper 70s to mid 80s. A cold front will move through the region Monday night. With limited moisture expected ahead of the front, only an isolated thunderstorm is possible with little if any rainfall. High pressure will build into the region behind the front with dry weather and below normal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will rebound back above normal by Thursday as south winds return to the region. Dry and warm conditions are expected to continue for Thursday night and Friday. A slow moving cold front will approach the region from the northwest Friday night and Saturday. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front across much of the Mid-South during this period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025 VFR forecast with changes to rain chances tomorrow evening. Gusty winds continue tonight ahead of a surface cold front to our north. Southerly winds with gusts above 20 knots are likely through tomorrow morning alongside LLWS around 50 knots. Through tomorrow, winds will veer as the front approaches with a continued chance for gusts. As the front passes, rain chances increase as moisture pools along the boundary. However, current model guidance is struggling to pin down if any precipitation will reach the surface. Given relatively dry surface air and a strong mid-level inversion, it is unlikely that the probability of any precip is high enough to mention in the TAFs at this time. However, there is still a slim chance for a stray shower or two from 22z through 02z at JBR/MEM/MKL. Northwesterly winds will follow the frontal passage through the end of the period after 00z for all sites other than TUP. CIGs will also develop after 00z at 5000 ft or above at all terminals. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS AVIATION...JAB