993 FXUS64 KLZK 271916 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 216 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Remaining convective activity was departing NErn AR this aftn, w/ widespread stratus beginning to mix out and give way to more typical diurnal Cu acrs the state. Thru the remainder of tonight and into Mon, settled weather is expected upper lvl shortwave ridging quickly amplifies over the Srn Cntrl US, preceding deepening troughing acrs the S/Wrn US. Tues, unsettled weather is set to return as a trailing cdfrnt fm a potent Upper Midwest sfc low stalls out over the Ozark Plateau. This stalled frnt wl serve as a local convergence zone for convective development Tues aftn to evng, primarily over Srn MO to the Nrn portions of AR. Modest fcst instability of 2000-2500 J/kg MUCAPE overlaid by sufficient bulk shear of 30-40 kts wl support the threat for some organized severe weather, as highlighted by the D3 SPC 15 percent risk area extending over much of Nrn AR. Weaker shear and mostly linear fcst hodographs suggests splitting and clustering cells, with large hail and damaging winds the primary severe hazards, though a conditional window for a few tornadoes appears possible later in the evng where a weak LLJ may yield a more favorable low lvl shear pattern for tornadoes. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 To begin the period, an upper level trough is expected across the western U.S. with surface high pressure centered just east of the state. This will allow southerly flow at the surface to usher in warm moist air ahead of the next system. Overall, an active long- term pattern is expected. As the trough continue to push towards the east this will track a cold front into the area during the short term. This frontal boundary is expected to slow/stall across the state setting the stage for a rainy and stormy Tuesday night into Wednesday. Wednesday is expected to be the wettest day of the week with a stormy and wet pattern for much of state through at least Thursday. This pattern has the potential to bring severe weather chances, mainly on Tuesday and Wednesday...in addition to an increase in flash flooding due to the heavy rainfall potential. As mentioned above, an active weather pattern is expected early to the middle part of next week. Severe weather chances look to persist into Wednesday with a heavy rainfall risk in addition to the severe risk. Arkansans should pay attention to the forecast for this upcoming week as severe storms and heavy rainfall will be possible. However, changes and updates to the forecast will be likely as we get closer to the event. Calmer and drier conditions are expected to return to the state Friday and into Saturday promoting calmer and drier conditions. Some light rain showers could linger across southern and eastern Arkansas into the weekend as the system continues to push off towards the east. Temperatures are expected to above average through the period with high temperatures in the mid 70s to upper 80s through much of the period. Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025 Scattered convective activity was departing N/Ern AR Sun aftn, w/ lingering widespread low-stratus evident on recent vis-sat imgry. As such, MVFR condns wl prevail at Nrn to Cntrl terminals thru at least later this aftn, before eventual improvement to VFR levels is expected. Winds wl remain light and S/Erly thru tonight, w/ due Srly winds resuming on Mon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 62 88 69 86 / 0 0 0 20 Camden AR 66 88 65 86 / 0 0 0 10 Harrison AR 62 82 66 79 / 0 10 20 50 Hot Springs AR 64 87 66 86 / 0 0 0 10 Little Rock AR 66 89 68 86 / 10 0 0 10 Monticello AR 68 90 69 88 / 10 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 65 87 66 85 / 0 0 0 20 Mountain Home AR 60 84 66 81 / 0 0 10 40 Newport AR 62 87 70 85 / 0 0 0 10 Pine Bluff AR 66 89 68 87 / 10 0 0 10 Russellville AR 65 87 68 86 / 0 0 0 20 Searcy AR 62 88 67 86 / 0 0 0 10 Stuttgart AR 67 88 69 86 / 20 0 0 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...72 LONG TERM....73 AVIATION...72