986
FXUS64 KLZK 180835
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
235 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

-Showers and a few thunderstorms today across the region will
 result in rainfall amounts up to one quarter to one half inch
 through this afternoon

-Return of dry weather conditions for this weekend, with low rain
 chances Saturday into Sunday the only notable weather going into
 next week

-Above normal temperatures this weekend through Christmas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Persistent low stratus and fog will stick around into the morning
hours across the region, as a cold front approaches the state
from the west. This front will increase shower and occasional
thunderstorm chances starting near day break along the western
counties of the CWA and progress eastward throughout the day, with
most of the rainfall activity complete by the evening hours.
Expect rainfall amounts totaling a few hundredths to one quarter
inch, with some higher amounts with any heavier showers or
thunderstorms. Widespread gusty winds 20-30 mph ahead of and along
the front can be expected throughout the morning and afternoon
hours, with winds calming by the evening hours as direr and colder
air filters in from the northwest.

After this front clears the state, quiet weather looks likely to
persist through Christmas. At this point, chances for another
round of showers seems to be trending down over the weekend, as
the latest guidance pushes the low circulation further south,
leaving only isolated chances Saturday into Sunday. Otherwise,
temperatures will rebound from near normal on Friday to well above
normal levels through the middle of next week. Thus, expect the
Christmas holiday to be dry and warm, as highs in the 70s are
becoming more likely (60-80%) across most of the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Expect flight category to remain degraded to IFR and LIFR across all
sites for the majority of the forecast period from early Thursday
morning through early Friday morning. Low CIGS and VSBY are to be
expected across most terminals with intermittent mist and light rain
late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. All sites will begin
to gust at the surface in excess of 25+ knots by midday on Thursday.
Low level wind shear will be noted to begin the period for the first
few hours at the northern terminals of KHRO and KBPK. Thursday
evening through the remainder of the period all sites will
experience low level wind shear. The driver of these weather
conditions will be a frontal boundary moving across Arkansas during
the day on Thursday. A few sites from west to east across the state
may manage to reach VFR flight category late Thursday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     63  28  50  36 /  90   0   0   0
Camden AR         66  33  55  38 /  60   0   0   0
Harrison AR       60  27  53  39 /  70   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    64  33  53  39 /  60   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  66  32  52  37 /  80   0   0   0
Monticello AR     67  35  55  39 /  80   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      65  32  55  41 /  60   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  60  27  51  37 /  80   0   0   0
Newport AR        61  29  48  36 / 100   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     66  32  53  38 /  90   0   0   0
Russellville AR   65  31  54  37 /  70   0   0   0
Searcy AR         64  28  50  33 /  90   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      64  31  49  38 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ARZ016-024-
031>033-039-042>046-052>056-122-123-138-140-141-222-223-238-240-
241-340-341.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...74