215 FXUS64 KLZK 130006 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 706 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 H500 trough making slow progress eastward across the middle of the country will continue to influence local conditions through at least Thursday. This feature will keep mid-level ridging in place across the SE and SW US at bay. As the trough continues to move east it will provide an increase in precip development across the state, especially during the afternoon/evening hours. Additionally, like what has been observed overnight, some precip may persist through the overnight hours as lingering/remnant boundaries aid in precip longevity. With the overall flow remaining meager and PW values in the 1.50-2.00 inch range or higher, some locally heavy downpours can be expected. Coverage overall should remain limited, which will do little to improve shortfall rainfall deficits. But, some areas will receive locally beneficial rainfall. By late week into the weekend, the mid-level trough will be well east of the region. In its wake, H500 ridging will become reestablished across much of the central/southern US. This will allow temperatures to climb and rain chances to decrease across Arkansas and surrounding areas. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 703 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Isolated storms continue over northern and western Arkansas, but currently none are a threat to the TAF sites. The storms over north central AR will slowly push east, but we will have to watch outflow boundaries at KLIT for any change in winds if they can get far enough south. Tomorrow afternoon storms will develop again, but look to be more widespread than today. VCSH was added to most of the locations with the best timing this far out. It is likely this timeframe will be upgraded to Prob 30 or tempo TS groups as confidence grows in the locations over the next TAF updates. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 72 92 71 93 / 30 40 20 20 Camden AR 72 94 72 93 / 10 30 20 30 Harrison AR 69 88 68 91 / 20 30 10 10 Hot Springs AR 73 93 72 94 / 20 40 20 30 Little Rock AR 74 93 74 93 / 10 40 10 20 Monticello AR 74 96 74 95 / 20 40 20 30 Mount Ida AR 71 92 71 94 / 20 30 10 20 Mountain Home AR 69 89 68 92 / 20 30 10 20 Newport AR 73 92 72 92 / 20 30 20 20 Pine Bluff AR 73 94 73 94 / 10 30 20 20 Russellville AR 73 94 73 96 / 20 30 10 20 Searcy AR 72 93 72 94 / 20 40 20 20 Stuttgart AR 74 93 74 93 / 20 30 20 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...75