215
FXUS64 KLZK 130006
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
706 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

H500 trough making slow progress eastward across the middle of the
country will continue to influence local conditions through at
least Thursday. This feature will keep mid-level ridging in place across
the SE and SW US at bay. As the trough continues to move east it
will provide an increase in precip development across the state,
especially during the afternoon/evening hours. Additionally, like
what has been observed overnight, some precip may persist through
the overnight hours as lingering/remnant boundaries aid in precip
longevity.

With the overall flow remaining meager and PW values in
the 1.50-2.00 inch range or higher, some locally heavy downpours
can be expected. Coverage overall should remain limited, which
will do little to improve shortfall rainfall deficits. But, some
areas will receive locally beneficial rainfall.

By late week into the weekend, the mid-level trough will be well
east of the region. In its wake, H500 ridging will become
reestablished across much of the central/southern US. This will
allow temperatures to climb and rain chances to decrease across
Arkansas and surrounding areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Isolated storms continue over northern and western Arkansas, but
currently none are a threat to the TAF sites. The storms over
north central AR will slowly push east, but we will have to watch
outflow boundaries at KLIT for any change in winds if they can get
far enough south. Tomorrow afternoon storms will develop again,
but look to be more widespread than today. VCSH was added to most
of the locations with the best timing this far out. It is likely
this timeframe will be upgraded to Prob 30 or tempo TS groups as
confidence grows in the locations over the next TAF updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     72  92  71  93 /  30  40  20  20
Camden AR         72  94  72  93 /  10  30  20  30
Harrison AR       69  88  68  91 /  20  30  10  10
Hot Springs AR    73  93  72  94 /  20  40  20  30
Little Rock   AR  74  93  74  93 /  10  40  10  20
Monticello AR     74  96  74  95 /  20  40  20  30
Mount Ida AR      71  92  71  94 /  20  30  10  20
Mountain Home AR  69  89  68  92 /  20  30  10  20
Newport AR        73  92  72  92 /  20  30  20  20
Pine Bluff AR     73  94  73  94 /  10  30  20  20
Russellville AR   73  94  73  96 /  20  30  10  20
Searcy AR         72  93  72  94 /  20  40  20  20
Stuttgart AR      74  93  74  93 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...75