578 FXUS64 KLZK 050814 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 314 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 236 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 -Above normal temperatures and increased humidity are expected across much of the state through the weekend. Temperatures will hovering at or around normal by early next week. -Frequent chances for rain and thunderstorms with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. -Locally heavy rainfall amounts of more than 3 inches possible across western/northern Arkansas through Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Satellite this morning shows areas of patchy dense fog across portions of northern, western and southwestern Arkansas. These area are also the areas that saw rainfall yesterday from scattered showers and thunderstorms. Any fog that does develop this morning will dissipate by the mid morning hours. An activity period of weather is continue across the Natural State as the state is under the influence of west to southwest flow through Saturday night. A series of upper level disturbances will traverse the area bringing periods of showers and thunderstorms with the highest POPs likely over portions of western and northwestern Arkansas closer to the nearly stationary frontal boundary through Saturday. The latest deterministic guidance this morning shows the front will lift northward into portions of southwest Missouri and northeastern Oklahoma on Friday. A weak disturbance is expected to traverse southeast across portions of north central and northeastern Oklahoma and far south central Kansas late tonight into early Friday. This will allow for a complex of showers and thunderstorms to form that will congeal into an MCS. An analysis of CAMs during that time frame shows the complex of showers and embedded thunderstorms of which a few could be strong to severe moving into portions of northwestern Arkansas early Friday morning. The complex of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise known as as a mesoscale complex,will move across portions of western, central and northern Arkansas on Friday with primary hazard being damaging winds, but some hail and a brief tornado is also possible. Ahead of the shortwave on Saturday, another MCS appears likely over portions of Arkansas with the primary hazards being damaging winds with some hail possible and a brief tornado also possible. By Saturday night, a shortwave trough pushing through the central Plains around the base of the long wave trough moving eastward over the Canadian provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba will help to push the cold front rapidly push through the state on Sunday with one more day with the chance for strong to severe thunderstorms possible. As we head into the new work week, the state will be under northwest flow underneath an upper low/longwave trough centered over the Great Lakes region. A series of disturbances will traverse through the flow around the long wave trough and bring chances of showers and thunderstorms to Arkansas as another front moves into Arkansas Monday into Tuesday. The front will likely remain over southern Arkansas on Wednesday bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms to areas along and south of the front. Temperatures through the period will remain around normal the northern two thirds of the state with temperatures over southern Arkansas roughly 4 to 7 degrees above normal through Saturday. Temperatures for the rest of the period will be around seasonal values through at least midweek. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF period across the state. MVFR/IFR conditions will develop over portions of central, western, and southwestern Arkansas if areas of dense fog do materialize during the early morning hours. Fog should dissipate at or around 15z, allowing ceilings to lift back to VFR at impacted TAF sites. Winds will remain S/SW through the period but remain light. Some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly over portions of north and central Arkansas after 18z, but confidence is too low to place at any one TAF site. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 87 72 85 70 / 30 20 60 40 Camden AR 90 72 91 73 / 20 10 10 10 Harrison AR 83 68 82 67 / 10 30 80 50 Hot Springs AR 89 71 90 70 / 10 10 30 20 Little Rock AR 89 73 89 73 / 20 10 30 20 Monticello AR 91 74 93 74 / 20 10 20 10 Mount Ida AR 89 71 89 71 / 10 10 40 20 Mountain Home AR 84 69 82 68 / 20 30 80 50 Newport AR 88 72 87 72 / 30 10 60 40 Pine Bluff AR 91 73 91 73 / 20 10 20 20 Russellville AR 88 71 86 72 / 20 20 60 40 Searcy AR 88 71 88 71 / 20 10 40 30 Stuttgart AR 89 74 90 74 / 20 0 30 30 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kelly LONG TERM....Kelly AVIATION...Kelly