691
FXUS64 KLZK 180523
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1123 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1232 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

-Isolated to scattered showers into this morning, ahead of more
 widespread shower and thunderstorm activity primarily on Thursday

-Return of dry weather conditions for this weekend, with low rain
 chances returning Sunday into Monday

-Normal to above normal temperatures through Christmas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Isolated to scattered elevated convection across central to
southern Arkansas is bringing some localized light accumulations
early this morning as enhanced mid-level flow traverses eastward
downstream from an amplified trough across the Plains. These
showers and occasional storm will push eastward across the state
through the overnight hours, with most activity over by daybreak.

The aforementioned trough will remain somewhat stationary to the
west, keeping moist low-level southwesterly flow in place, thus
cloudy skies should persist throughout the day today and into
tonight. A second trough will quickly amplify across the Plains
and phase with the stationary trough going into Thursday, with
better dynamical support aloft resulting in a deepening surface
low pressure with a cold front moving from west to east across the
Natural State mostly on Thursday. Despite most areas receiving
measurable rain as the front moves across the state, total rain
amounts remain limited to around 0.10"-0.25", with higher amounts
favoring central to eastern Arkansas where there is around 10-25%
chance of exceeding 0.50".

Temperatures will continue to remain above normal levels, peaking
in the 60s tomorrow ahead of the cold frontal passage. A much
cooler airmass will settle in place on Friday as surface high
pressure builds, as highs will hover near normal levels in the
upper 40s to lower 50s.

Dry conditions expected to persist through most of the weekend as
highs rebound back into the 60s at least on Saturday. While there
is good agreement amongst ensemble and deterministic solutions on
zonal flow across the region setting up over the weekend and into
early next week, details on a weak shortwave increases
uncertainty on some low (10-30%) rain chances as early as the
overnight hours Saturday to as late as early Monday morning.

Heading into the middle of next week, higher certainty of drier
conditions exists as ridging takes hold across central CONUS.
Thus, taking an early peak at Christmas Eve and Christmas Day,
confidence is good that dry and warm conditions are in store mid
to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Expect flight category to remain degraded to IFR and LIFR across all
sites for the majority of the forecast period from early Thursday
morning through early Friday morning. Low CIGS and VSBY are to be
expected across most terminals with intermittent mist and light rain
late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. All sites will begin
to gust at the surface in excess of 25+ knots by midday on Thursday.
Low level wind shear will be noted to begin the period for the first
few hours at the northern terminals of KHRO and KBPK. Thursday
evening through the remainder of the period all sites will
experience low level wind shear. The driver of these weather
conditions will be a frontal boundary moving across Arkansas during
the day on Thursday. A few sites from west to east across the state
may manage to reach VFR flight category late Thursday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     56  49  63  28 /   0  30  90   0
Camden AR         60  49  66  33 /  30  20  60   0
Harrison AR       59  50  60  27 /   0  30  70   0
Hot Springs AR    52  50  64  33 /  10  40  60   0
Little Rock   AR  52  50  66  32 /  20  30  80   0
Monticello AR     64  50  67  35 /  30  10  80   0
Mount Ida AR      56  50  65  32 /  10  40  60   0
Mountain Home AR  58  50  60  27 /   0  20  80   0
Newport AR        52  48  61  29 /  10  20 100   0
Pine Bluff AR     58  50  66  32 /  30  20  90   0
Russellville AR   57  51  65  31 /   0  40  70   0
Searcy AR         53  48  64  28 /  10  30  90   0
Stuttgart AR      53  50  64  31 /  20  20  90   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Thursday for ARZ016-024-
031>033-039-042>046-052>056-122-123-138-140-141-222-223-238-240-
241-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74