788 FXUS64 KLZK 020557 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1257 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 + Pleasant but hot conditions are expected early this week with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most locations. + From mid week on, temperatures will remain warm and humid, but cloud cover will be on the increase as a frontal boundary stalls out near the northwestern part of the state. + Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will develop near and generally move along this boundary that also extends into eastern Oklahoma. Multiple rounds of storms may produce enough heavy rainfall to result in a more widespread flooding threat by late this week or next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery showed a weak shortwave trough over Arkansas moving slowly to the southeast. Regional radars showed some scattered light rain showers over the southeast part of Arkansas associated with lift tied to the trough. KLZK Radar also showed a thunderstorm near the Perry/Pulaski border, not moving much at the time of this discussion. Visible satellite imagery and regional surface observations showed some scattered stratocumulus clouds away from the small areas of precipitation around the state. Surface observations showed temperatures in the lower to mid 80s with dew point values in the lower 60s. At those temperatures with a 25 degree F dew point spread and with thunderstorms occurring, the primary threat is likely to be collapsing thunderstorms producing microbursts. Don`t think storms are likely to get tall enough to produce strong microbursts, but 40-50 mph winds will likely be associated with any storm that develops through late this afternoon. Before sunset, we will likely cool down enough to prevent additional storms from developing, so this is primarily a concern here for just the next few hours. Behind the departing weak shortwave trough, shortwave ridging will build over the state and remain in place through Tuesday morning. Shortwave ridging will help support mostly clear/sunny skies while winds generally remain light and southerly. The combination of full early June sun and weak southerly winds will cause temperatures to rise quickly on Monday with highs likely to flirt with 90 degrees at several locations across the state. Shortwave ridging will move east of the state Tuesday morning as the upper low currently over southern California moves east towards Arkansas. The upper low is expected to weaken quite a bit as it moves east, and is expected to phase with a stronger northern stream trough the central high plains Tuesday morning. This phased upper troughing is expected to push east-northeast, causing most of its associated dynamics to remain north of Arkansas, moving over the western Great Lakes region. However this large area of troughing is expected to be sufficient to push a large cold front south out of the plains towards far northwest Arkansas by sunset on Tuesday. With all that in mind, closer to home here in Arkansas, the aggregate of the discussion above will result in another mainly hot and dry day across Arkansas, with little change from Monday for most locations. There will likely be a slight uptick in humidity owing to the second day in a row tapping into some Gulf moisture. The frontal boundary is expected to slow down as it approaches Arkansas, likely reaching the far northwest part of the state near sunset. Along the entire frontal boundary will be a line of showers and thunderstorms extending from Wisconsin to north central Texas. As the front slows down, we may see some of that thunderstorm activity across northwest or west central Arkansas right around or just before sunset. Some strong to marginally severe storms are possible, but wind shear is expected to be fairly weak, so pulsing type of storms seem to pose the primary threat for gusty winds and small hail. Cavanaugh && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 As the combined troughs continue off to the east, they will mark a large scale pattern shift that will remain with the Continental United States (CONUS) through next weekend. The northern stream jet/trough becomes zonally oriented along or just north of the Canadian border. An elongated upper level ridge, also more or less zonally oriented is expected to set up over Mexico-Texas-Florida to the south, leaving most of the CONUS under the influence of pure westerly flow aloft. The upper ridge is interesting in that the center of anticyclonic circulation below the level of non- divergence is basically centered over Florida while aloft the center of anticyclonic circulation is over northern Mexico. This offset configuration is important because with the center of circulation at the low levels set well off to the southeast this will direct Gulf moisture directly at the state of Arkansas for an extended period of time. When you couple that dynamic with a quasi-stationary boundary in the region and westerly flow aloft promoting an oscillation of shortwave troughing and ridging, kind of like extending a slinky and wagging one end back and forth causing waves and troughs to propagate along its length, it sets the stage for an active weather pattern for the region for several days. The eventual position of the stalled frontal boundary will be key to pinning down weather impacts from Wednesday through early next week. The large scale pattern supports multiple rounds of thunderstorms during this period, with each round likely to push the boundary south while the lack of storms along the boundary in between rounds of storms will generally cause the boundary to move back to the north. Each round of storms may come in the form of a convective system that is difficult to predict more than 2-3 days out because of factors on smaller scales of time and space that can`t be currently observed because they don`t exist yet. These convective systems, often called mesoscale convective systems or MCSs, make it quite challenging to trust any deterministic guidance regarding impacts moving forward. However ensemble guidance can give us some clue as to which areas are more likely to see multiple rounds of storms, thereby likely to experience more negative impacts from the weather during the long term forecast period. Right now the long range ensemble forecasts generally indicate that northern and western Arkansas have the best chances at seeing multiple rounds of heavy thunderstorms Wednesday through next Sunday. The average or mean guidance for rainfall totals is probably not the best metric to use during this period as the constant supply of Gulf moisture combined with westerly winds aloft really favors storms that will be efficient rainfall producers without undercutting on another due to strong cold pool propagation. This pattern likely favors ensemble guidance rainfall totals at or around the 90th percentile as a good first guess, keeping in mind that rainfall totals will likely be higher if storms move over the exact same areas on any 3 days during the 5 day long term forecast period. This would bring 5-day rainfall totals up in the 4-6 inch range across the northern half of the state and 2-4 inches across the southern half. Northwest Arkansas currently seems to have the highest chance at seeing 6 inch plus totals, but that may extend south across west central Arkansas as well. Initially individual storms will likely pose primarily a lower end damaging wind and large hail threat, bearing in mind that short term factors may enhance that potential... we just can`t see it this far out. Tornadoes generally don`t seem favored, but they`ll remain possible, just isolated and weaker in nature if they occur at all. The largest obvious threat is the threat for heavy rainfall and the associated flooding. Flash flooding could occur with any individual round of storms on any given day. River and more widespread flash flooding will become increasingly likely as we get into next weekend. Some significant flooding is possible, but this far out it`s difficult to say if that will occur in Arkansas or in states/areas nearby. Either way, obviously something we`ll be watching closely in future forecasts this week. Storms aside, we will likely remain warm and very humid through this period. Highs will climb into the 80s each day with overnight lows only falling into the upper 60s or low 70s due to the high humidity in place. Cavanaugh && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 VFR condns are expected thru the PD as sfc high pressure settles in over the FA. Light and variable winds overnight may yield some patchy fog and at Nrn to Cntrl terminals thru 12Z Mon mrng. Thru the day Mon, clear skies and light Srly winds wl prevail. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 68 89 71 86 / 0 0 10 40 Camden AR 67 90 70 88 / 0 0 10 30 Harrison AR 66 85 68 79 / 0 20 50 70 Hot Springs AR 67 89 71 85 / 0 0 20 40 Little Rock AR 68 90 71 88 / 0 0 10 30 Monticello AR 69 91 72 90 / 0 0 0 20 Mount Ida AR 68 89 71 85 / 0 10 30 50 Mountain Home AR 67 86 69 81 / 0 20 40 70 Newport AR 68 89 71 88 / 0 0 10 30 Pine Bluff AR 67 90 71 89 / 0 0 10 20 Russellville AR 68 89 71 85 / 0 10 30 50 Searcy AR 66 89 70 88 / 0 0 10 30 Stuttgart AR 69 89 73 88 / 0 0 10 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cavanaugh LONG TERM....Cavanaugh AVIATION...72