508
FXUS64 KSHV 220649
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
149 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

 - A good push of thunderstorms will be arriving in the predawn
   hours across SE OK, spreading into NE TX, SW AR and NW LA.

 - A cool front will be following another round of thunderstorms
   overnight and early Tuesday but our southerly winds will hold.


 - Thunderstorms linger across our northern sections into midweek,but
   over

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Warm overnight with a little wind from the SE at 5 to 10 mph with
slightly less east of I-49. Lows will be in the mid to upper 70s
as our dew points keep in the mid 70s in most locales. We should
see enough wind and T/Td spread to preclude any fog except for
maybe our far east. The warm low level S/SW winds will be feeding
all night into a mesoscale complex system of thunderstorms now
moving across central OK. The models all show this MCS feature
arriving right around daybreak, which is just after 6 am. It is
moving at 30 mph to the SE now with severe gusts and will keep
forward speed overnight, spreading across I-30 and 1-20 by early
to mid morning. The SPC has a little Slight Risk right in between
our I-30 and I-20 corridors from near Dallas to Texarkana and
Little Rock. This will be our next best chance for rainfall as
this cool front will be lifting the threat back northward for
Tuesday and Wednesday. The WPC agrees with their ERO for Monday
Slight Risk along and north of I-20. So more good news for our
main drought areas once more, before things slowly lift north and
we dry out. This MCS will send out a very good outflow boundary,
so while storms may decay as this system gusts out, the timing
will help develop some lagniappe showers and thunderstorms deeper
down into more of our TX counties and LA parishes by late morning
and early afternoon.

Generally, the commencement of heating interrupts the low level
inflow, so the early MCS heavy weather will be diminishing by mid
morning. The winds will continue SE with or without the rainfall,
helping to mix the air well. So while we will warm up as the MCS
decays and gusts out, the heat index should keep in check with all
the mixing winds early. As mentioned, if the outflow is able to
plug into heating early, some of the showers and remaining
isolated thunderstorms will fortify the system late morning into
the early afternoon spreading down I-49. So this push will keep
the sea breeze well to our south.

The pattern repeats as light NW flow aloft will reload for
another push overnight early on Tuesday. The weak cool front will
backdoor across much of Arkansas and set up a train track for
this next push to run along from Oklahoma City to just south of
Little Rock, but it looks like our southerly flow will hold
position on the front advancing. So overall less rain for more of
us. And then one final time, the light NW flow will load a third
nocturnal push over Tuesday into Wednesday. The models show the
frontal boundary will start to lift back northward a quicker pace
and round 3 will likely be affecting even less of our Four-State
area. So most of the activity after this morning will be shifting
a little farther northward with each event.

Meanwhile, the upper ridging will be building over the SW U.S.
into the Four Corners and keep the rain train nearby, but just out
of reach after early Wednesday. The upper ridge will build to
594dam overnight and into Thursday and begin to bring sinking air
with little to no rain our way until the ridge moves eastward into
the MS River Valley, allowing the sea breeze push to resume
perhaps by next weekend along with weak easterly waves moving
along the Gulf coast. And so with less rain clouds, more late
June sunshine will boost the mercury for us through the low to mid
90s and end up in the upper 90s and pushing triple digits for a
few spots. Of course, the building heat will still be accompanied
by the good green up and a week`s worth of southerly winds,
bringing in the muggy air continuously to the point of more heat
concerns. Hopefully just advisories and not excessive heat
warnings by late month. The cold front activity will remain on
hold into July for now as we slowly dry out more and more each
day. The CPC 8 to 14 day outlook issued yesterday shows above
average temperatures and below average rainfall through the
Nation`s big 250th Birthday celebration. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Low MVFR cigs have begun to develop early this morning across much
of E TX, and will expand farther NE into N LA/SW AR through the
overnight hours, likely prior to 09Z, and persist through much of
the morning hours. An MCS now moving through NW OK attm will quickly
sweep SE through much of OK and enter the region after 10Z, reaching
the TXK terminal around 11Z, and the TYR/GGG/SHV/ELD/MLU terminals
between 13-17Z before diminishing. However, gusty winds of 30-
40+kts, reduced vsbys, and brief IFR cigs will be possible in and
near the convection, before rapid improvement is observed as any
remaining MVFR cigs are scoured, with low AC/cirrus cigs remaining
in wake of the convection. Should see a scattered cu field redevelop
though by early to mid-afternoon, before mostly diminishing
around/shortly after sunset. Depending on where any sfc bndrys are
leftover from the morning MCS, additional scattered convection may
redevelop either late this afternoon or during the evening over
portions of extreme NE TX/SW AR/N LA, but confidence remains too low
to add VCSH/VCTS mention to the affected terminals attm. Should
eventually see the redevelopment of IFR/low MVFR cigs to Lower E
TX/N LA S of I-20 prior to daybreak Tuesday, just after this end of
this TAF period. S winds 6-11kts overnight will eventually become
SSW in wake of the morning convection, with higher gusts in/near the
convection. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Spotter activation may be needed prior to daybreak today across
Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas for the approaching
complex of strong thunderstorms. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  76  92  77 /  40  20  20  10
MLU  92  75  92  76 /  30  40  20  20
DEQ  88  72  87  72 /  80  60  60  20
TXK  91  74  91  75 /  80  50  40  20
ELD  89  73  89  73 /  60  50  40  20
TYR  91  77  93  77 /  50  20  20   0
GGG  92  76  93  77 /  40  20  20   0
LFK  94  76  95  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...26