996 FXUS64 KTSA 120910 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 410 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 410 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 - Rain showers along with scattered thunderstorm chances continue through Friday with upper low lifting through the region. A locally heavy rainfall threat exists over southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. Flooding may become a concern. - Rain chances continue into the weekend but coverage is forecast to decrease. Temperatures near mid June normals. - Warming trend and humid conditions for the first half of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 410 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 The much advertised area of low pressure, centered over north central Texas early this morning, was continuing its northeastward track toward eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Widespread rain showers were ongoing from southeast Kansas through southern Texas. Associated convection was mainly confined south of the Red River where most of the elevated instability resided. Through the day today, the mid/upper area of low pressure will move over top of the CWA with continued widespread rain showers and scattered thunderstorms forecast. Latest indications continue to show the greater surface and elevated instability remaining south and east of the CWA as we sit underneath the low. Thus, will continue with chance thunder potentials across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas and lesser potentials into northeast Oklahoma. In response, severe weather potentials today should continue to remain low for the CWA. The track of the low pressure system also looks to keep the more significant moisture and precipitable water values in excess of 2" just southeast of the CWA through tonight. This has adjusted the heavy rain axis to just southeast and east of the CWA, with forecast rainfall amounts near 1 inch to locally exceeding 1.5 inches across far southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas through tonight. Any slight shift northward/westward could bring greater rainfall to these locations as the western portion of the heavy rain axis looks to be across McCurtain co of southeast Oklahoma to Scott co of western Arkansas. These rains on top of recent rains could create localized areas of increased flood concerns. Tonight, the low pressure center is progged to be moving into far southwest Missouri around/just after 12z Friday. Rain showers along with slight to low end chance thunder potentials will remain across the CWA tonight. The greater thunder potentials will be across the eastern half of the CWA, while rain showers wrap around the low back into northeast Oklahoma. A continued locally heavy rain threat exists through tonight. With the system and associated rain chances moving through today, afternoon temperatures look to only warm into the 70s to near 80 deg. This could be the last of cooler temperatures for a while. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 410 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 The low pressure center lifts into Missouri Friday while the upper level trof remains over the eastern portion of the CWA into Saturday before moving off to the east. Rain showers are forecast to continue to wrap around the low and spread across the CWA Friday. Again, will continue with slight to chance thunder potentials. However, increasing instability looks to try to lift north of the Red River behind the exiting disturbance. A locally heavy rain threat continues Friday across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Additional shower and thunderstorm chances are forecast Saturday with the upper level trof still over the eastern portion of the region. PoPs continue Sunday into Monday from another weak disturbance/vort max looking to move southeast within the northwesterly upper level flow across the Central/Southern Plains. Once this second wave exits, a warming trend with humid conditions are forecast for the first half of next week. High temperatures climbing into the low/mid 90s and heat index values up around 100 deg are forecast Tuesday. There are indications of another shortwave trying to move through the region around the middle part of next week and for now will add slight chance PoPs to the forecast. Otherwise, the warm/humid conditions look to continue into the second half of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Flight conditions will worsen overnight across much of E OK with ceilings lowering into the low MVFR to IFR levels. NW AR may retain low VFR ceilings for much of the night before lower ceilings arrive after sunrise. Expect areas of showers and drizzle to persist overnight with potential for an increase in thunderstorm activity for southern locations later tonight. A mix of MVFR to IFR ceilings persist through the day across the region with continued showers and scattered thunderstorms. The lowest ceilings likely focus more toward NW AR into tomorrow night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 78 69 83 69 / 60 50 40 10 FSM 78 70 82 70 / 90 60 70 40 MLC 77 67 84 71 / 70 30 50 20 BVO 78 67 82 67 / 60 50 40 10 FYV 76 66 77 66 / 90 70 70 30 BYV 77 68 77 66 / 80 80 80 30 MKO 77 68 81 69 / 80 40 60 20 MIO 78 68 80 67 / 70 60 40 10 F10 77 67 82 69 / 60 30 50 20 HHW 75 68 86 72 / 80 40 40 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...07