243 FXUS64 KTSA 012334 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 634 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 - Unsettled weather next week, with daily shower and storm chances. Severe weather potential mainly Tuesday. - Heavy rain threat also exists next week with multiple inches of rainfall expected, leading to an increasing flash and mainstem river flooding threat. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Shortwave disturbance that moved through the region this morning had exited off to the southeast this afternoon. In the wake of the departing wave, a ridge of high pressure was beginning to move out into the Southern Plains. Ahead of this ridge, northerly upper level flow continued to spread wildfire smoke from Canada toward the region. This smoke is expected to spread across portions of eastern Oklahoma and also northwest Arkansas this evening/tonight and into Monday morning before the upper level flow becomes more westerly from the eastward movement of the upper level ridge. The greater coverage of smoke filled air will be east and northeast of the CWA tonight. Low temps tonight of upper 50s to mid 60s are forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Upper level ridge passes through the region Monday with the return of increasing southerly low level flow Monday afternoon. Southerly winds are expected to increase into Monday evening and remain breezy overnight ahead of another shortwave progged to move out into the Central/Southern Plains by 12z Tuesday. These conditions will help afternoon temps warm into the mid/upper 80s for most locations, and should be the warmest day of the upcoming week. This return flow will also increase moisture advection back into the region with precipitable water value in excess of 1.5 inches Monday night. Also Monday night, a 40-55+KT low level jet is forecast to develop and move over the region ahead of the eastward moving shortwave. The combination of these features will aid in the return of shower and thunderstorm chances developing out west and spreading into portions of northeast Oklahoma late Monday night. Marginal instability and shear will create a limited severe potential mainly west of Highway 75 after midnight Monday night. Showers/storms are forecast to be ongoing Tuesday morning across mainly northeast Oklahoma. This activity looks to weaken/move out of the CWA through the morning hours. Additional convection is anticipated to develop during the afternoon/evening hours as the shortwave and associated cold front move into the region. Latest indications are for the arrival of the cold front into northeast Oklahoma around 00z Wed. Modest instability interacting with frontogenetic forcing will help to increase severe potential into the evening hours Tuesday over northeast Oklahoma with lesser potential across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Large hail and damaging winds are the main severe threats Tuesday afternoon/evening. Instability looks to weaken overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday morning while the cold front slowly sags east southeast into southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. However, elevated frontogenetic forcing will aid in continued shower/storm development into Wednesday. Latest model solutions continue to differ on the placement of this boundary Wednesday afternoon/night. NAM has the placement more over the CWA, while the GFS tries to push the front just east of the CWA and the ECMWF is more closer to the eastern periphery of the CWA. The location of the front will help determine the storm coverage and severe potentials into Wednesday night. For this forecast leaned closer to a blend of the NAM/ECMWF. Beyond Wednesday, a series of additional shortwaves are progged to move through the region into the weekend. Thus, continued chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain common through the forecast period. As these waves moves through, isolated to limited severe potentials exist, though the greater severe potential of the forecast period remains with the initial front Tuesday afternoon/evening. Temperatures through the extended look to range in the 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 60s to low 70s. Besides the severe potentials this week, the continued southerly low level flow pumping moisture with precipitable water values of 1.5 to locally in excess of 2 inches into the region will create multiple periods of a heavy rain threat. The first is with the front Tuesday/Tuesday night. Second is dependent on the location of the front Wednesday. With the potential more eastward position, NBM has decreased QPF over the CWA compared to 24-hrs ago. As these details are refined in the coming days, this heavy rain axis should shift back and forth a few times. The heavy rain threat continues for the second half of the week into the weekend as the region remains in a near zonal upper level flow pushing disturbances through the region. Even with the uncertainties of the placement of heavy rain, near saturated model soundings at times through the week will allow for efficient rain producing showers/storms. Multiple inches of rainfall remain forecast for the CWA, which will quickly heighten concerns for flash flooding as well as mainstem river flooding. Persons with interests along the mainstem rivers should continue to follow latest forecasts as ensembles continue to highlight the potential for river flood impacts during the second half of the week. A flood watch will also likely be necessary as the heavy rain axis becomes more certain. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 VFR conditions expected to prevail at all area TAF sites through the next 24 hours. Did include a TEMPO group at XNA, ROG, and FYV for a few hours Monday morning for brief reduced visibilities due to fog around sunrise. However, confidence of this occurring is low at this time. Southerly winds increase and become breezy/gusty by midday Monday. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 87 65 89 73 / 0 0 0 20 FSM 86 65 89 70 / 20 0 0 10 MLC 85 64 88 73 / 0 0 0 10 BVO 86 60 88 70 / 0 0 10 30 FYV 85 59 86 69 / 0 0 0 10 BYV 82 62 87 69 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 85 64 87 72 / 0 0 0 10 MIO 84 63 87 71 / 0 0 0 20 F10 85 64 87 72 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 84 64 88 71 / 0 0 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...67