086 FXUS64 KLZK 042349 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 649 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 236 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 -Above normal temperatures and increased humidity are expected across much of the state through the weekend. -Frequent chances for rain and thunderstorms with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. -Locally heavy rainfall amounts of more than 3 inches possible across western/northern Arkansas through Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 323 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Wednesday afternoon visible satellite imagery depicted an expansive cloud field across the NW half of AR with scattered day Cu over the SE half of the state. Regional radars shows an uptick in convection over Wrn AR within the last couple to few hours which was moving towards Cntrl AR. A few of these storms could produce locally strong winds, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and small hail, otherwise these showers and storms will serve as a cool down temperature wise. Expect pop up variety of convection through the early evening hours, afterwards this activity should diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Afternoon temperatures ranged from the lower 70s to mid 80s. Synoptically, W to SW flow will be in place over the next couple of days, meanwhile near the surface, winds will be S/SWrly ushering plenty of rich gulf moisture into the region. Within the aforementioned flow, upper level systems are progged to traverse the region. Each wave will bring increased PoPs, favoring the NW half of AR each day through Friday. While a couple storms could become strong to severe, widespread organized severe weather is not expected. By the end of the period, W and SW flow will become more zonal to WNWrly opening the door to potential MCS activity. This will be discussed further in the next forecast period. Through Friday, highs should top out in the lower 80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 323 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Nearly zonal flow aloft will be transitioning to a more weak NW flow aloft at the start of the long term period...with an unsettled pattern expected to continue for at least Sat. As the flow aloft becomes more NWRLY on Sat...a weak upper disturbance will pass SE over the region...with scattered to widespread convection expected Sat/Sat night. In fact...this may develop into a complex of convection as the disturbances moves SE over the state. Strong/SVR convection will be possible as ample instability is forecast. The primary threat looks to be damaging winds...but some hail and a brief tornado could also be possible. While the threat for heavy rainfall will continue for portions of the area...mainly NWRN sections...this system looks to be moving at a more rapid rate across the state to be more locally heavy rainfall potential. By Sun afternoon...the flow aloft will become a bit stronger from the NW...with a break in the convection potential Sun into Mon as weak high pressure moves over the region. By early next week...an upper low will be situated over the Great Lakes Region...with some upper disturbances rotating around the base of this upper low over AR. These additional waves will keep some potential for SHRA/TSRA off and on into the middle of next week. However...a cold front may finally drop south into the state by the end of the forecast...with chances for precip potentially decreasing as the front attempts to push through. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 VFR conds are expected at most sites this evening with the exception of some temporary MVFR CIGs near SHRA/TSRA activity over Nrn terminals. Scattered SHRA/TSRA will continue for a few more hours before convection diminishes. MVFR/IFR conds are expected to develop overnight over Nrn AR with conds improving on Thurs. Winds will become light overnight, then SWrly at around 10 kts or less on Thurs. Precip is expected to be widely scattered on Thurs and due to low confidence at any one location, opted not to mention PoPs at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 70 87 71 85 / 50 30 10 60 Camden AR 71 90 72 93 / 10 20 0 10 Harrison AR 66 83 68 81 / 40 10 20 70 Hot Springs AR 70 89 70 90 / 30 10 0 20 Little Rock AR 72 89 73 89 / 30 20 0 30 Monticello AR 74 92 74 93 / 10 30 0 20 Mount Ida AR 69 88 69 89 / 20 10 10 30 Mountain Home AR 67 84 68 81 / 50 20 20 80 Newport AR 71 87 71 86 / 50 30 0 50 Pine Bluff AR 72 90 72 91 / 20 20 0 20 Russellville AR 70 87 71 87 / 50 10 10 50 Searcy AR 70 88 71 87 / 30 20 0 40 Stuttgart AR 73 89 74 89 / 20 20 0 30 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...70 LONG TERM....62 AVIATION...70