465 FXUS64 KLZK 141737 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1237 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 -Chances for rain and thunderstorms will slowly diminish through mid-week. -Temperatures are expected to increase to above normal values by mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Early morning satellite/radar data shows precip largely moving out of the area with much of the state drying out. Looking across eastern OK/western AR, a remnant MCV is in place. This feature will continue to drift NE through the day and may help trigger showers/storms across N/NW AR this afternoon. In the wake of yesterday`s fairly widespread precip, some FG may be possible through the early morning hours. The H500 trough that has been in place the last few days will linger over the region and continue to influence rain chances across the state for another day or two more. Coverage will be slightly less than the past couple of days, but still expecting a fair amount of activity during the afternoon/evening hours before precip diminishes after sunset. With weak shear in place and high PW values, a few storms could produce localized strong wind gusts and heavy downpours. Temperatures will remain in check again today with afternoon highs only expected to make it into the 80s F to lower 90s F. From Tue-Wed the mid-level trough will likely be absorbed into the zonal flow north of the area and ridging across the SE US will expand W/NW toward the Lower MS River Valley/Southern Plains. This will provide a decrease in rain chances and an increase in temperatures. By late week, highs may top out in the mid to upper 90s F across much of the state. With Td values in the 70s F, this will lead to heat index values at or above 105 in some locations. While precip chances will decrease, diurnally driven isolated showers/storms will remain possible through the rest of the period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Expect VFR flight category for the duration of the forecast period from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. However, multiple instances of VCTS have been included within "from" groups as isolated VCTS is expected across northern, western, and central terminals. Over the duration of the forecast period all terminals will have a window in which VCTS will impact their terminal, especially Monday afternoon into Monday night. Despite this, CIGS are anticipated to remain in VFR flight category. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 72 91 74 94 / 20 40 10 20 Camden AR 73 94 74 97 / 20 20 0 10 Harrison AR 70 86 72 90 / 20 30 10 30 Hot Springs AR 72 91 73 96 / 30 40 10 10 Little Rock AR 74 93 75 96 / 20 30 0 10 Monticello AR 76 94 76 98 / 10 20 0 10 Mount Ida AR 70 89 72 93 / 30 40 10 10 Mountain Home AR 70 87 72 91 / 20 40 10 30 Newport AR 73 91 74 96 / 20 40 0 20 Pine Bluff AR 74 93 75 96 / 10 20 0 10 Russellville AR 72 91 73 94 / 30 30 10 20 Searcy AR 72 91 74 96 / 20 30 0 20 Stuttgart AR 75 92 77 96 / 20 30 10 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...74