929
FXUS64 KLZK 170741
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
141 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1232 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

-Isolated to scattered showers into this morning, ahead of more
 widespread shower and thunderstorm activity primarily on Thursday

-Return of dry weather conditions for this weekend, with low rain
 chances returning Sunday into Monday

-Normal to above normal temperatures through Christmas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Isolated to scattered elevated convection across central to
southern Arkansas is bringing some localized light accumulations
early this morning as enhanced mid-level flow traverses eastward
downstream from an amplified trough across the Plains. These
showers and occassional storm will push eastward across the state
through the overnight hours, with most activity over by daybreak.

The aforementioned trough will remain somewhat stationary to the
west, keeping moist low-level southwesterly flow in place, thus
cloudy skies should persist throughout the day today and into
tonight. A second trough will quickly amplify across the Plains
and phase with the stationary trough going into Thursday, with
better dynamical support aloft resulting in a deepening surface
low pressure with a cold front moving from west to east across the
Natural State mostly on Thursday. Despite most areas receiving
measureable rain as the front moves across the state, total rain
amounts remain limited to around 0.10"-0.25", with higher amounts
favoring central to eastern Arkansas where there is around 10-25%
chance of exceeding 0.50".

Temperatures will continue to remain above normal levels, peaking
in the 60s tomorrow ahead of the cold frontal passage. A much
cooler airmass will settle in place on Friday as surface high
pressure builds, as highs will hover near normal levels in the
upper 40s to lower 50s.

Dry conditions expected to persist through most of the weekend as
highs rebound back into the 60s at least on Saturday. While there
is good agreement amongst ensemble and determinsitic solutions on
zonal flow across the region setting up over the weekend and into
early next week, details on a weak shortwave increases
uncertainty on some low (10-30%) rain chances as early as the
overnight hours Saturday to as late as early Monday morning.

Heading into the middle of next week, higher certainty of drier
conditions exists as ridging takes hold across central CONUS.
Thus, taking an early peak at Christmas Eve and Christmas Day,
confidence is good that dry and warm conditions are in store mid
to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Expect lowering CIGS and vicinity showers across most TAF sites
during the duration of the forecast period from west to east across
the state. CIGS will lower to as low as IFR flight category along
with VSBY that will lower to MVFR flight category across the
northern, central, and western sites. Expect degraded flight
category to remain through the remainder of the forecast period or
early Thursday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     58  49  62  30 /  10  40  90   0
Camden AR         56  50  66  33 /  30  30  80   0
Harrison AR       61  49  59  27 /   0  20  60   0
Hot Springs AR    56  49  63  33 /  20  50  80   0
Little Rock   AR  56  49  65  33 /  20  40  90   0
Monticello AR     58  52  67  35 /  40  20  90   0
Mount Ida AR      58  51  65  33 /  10  60  70   0
Mountain Home AR  61  49  60  27 /   0  30  70   0
Newport AR        56  50  62  30 /  10  40 100   0
Pine Bluff AR     55  50  65  33 /  40  30 100   0
Russellville AR   59  52  64  32 /  10  50  80   0
Searcy AR         56  47  63  29 /  20  40 100   0
Stuttgart AR      53  50  63  32 /  30  20 100   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...74