315
FXUS64 KMEG 161853
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1253 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1246 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

- A warming trend is expected through Thursday, with scattered showers
  beginning early Wednesday and high temperatures in the mid-50s
  to low-60s.

- A low risk of severe thunderstorms exists Thursday, followed by a
  significant temperature drop with subfreezing lows by Friday
  morning.

- Mild temperatures will return for the weekend and are expected to
  persist through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 1246 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Temperatures will continue to rebound as southerly winds advect
in higher moisture and warmer air. Highs will top out in the mid
to upper 40s by late afternoon, or just a couple degrees below
normal. A shortwave will traverse the region overnight through
Wednesday morning and spawn a few showers across southern
portions of the Mid-South. There is a low chance of thunder (20%)
as pockets of up to 200 J/kg of MUCAPE advect up the Delta late
Wednesday morning.

A warming trend begins Wednesday as return flow ramps up ahead of
a deepening trough and associated surface low over the Plains.
Although cloud cover will be plentiful throughout the day,
temperatures will peak in the mid to upper 50s areawide.

A deep trough will emerge out of the Central Plains early
Thursday morning with appreciable height falls overspreading the
Mid-South. Showers and thunderstorms will kick off Thursday
morning as a mid-level 80 knot jet moves overhead. Height falls
will be quite impressive with up to 50 meter drops across the
south and nearly 140 meters across the northern tier. The
limiting factor, as with many cool season events, is the lack of
instability. Bulk shear will be plentiful, however, LREF
probabilities for MUCAPE >250 J/kg remain confined to portions of
SE Arkansas, NW Mississippi, and extreme SW Tennessee. Thus, the
best overlap of low instability and high shear looks to set up
along and south of the I-40 corridor. The threat remains highly
conditional, as instability remains less than 500 J/kg and occurs
just ahead of the frontal boundary. Nonetheless, a low risk (1/5)
of severe thunderstorms is forecast for Thursday morning and
afternoon.

The front will quickly traverse the Mid-South by Thursday evening
ending the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms. Post-frontal
showers will continue through late Thursday evening and taper off
quickly by midnight. QPF totals will range from one quarter to
three quarters of an inch. Temperatures will tank behind the
front with subfreezing temperatures areawide by Friday morning.

Upper level zonal flow will set up across the southern CONUS this
weekend resulting in mild temperatures. Highs will be in the
lower 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s. Another cold front will
move into the region early Sunday and spawn a few showers. The
front will stall across the Mid-South as the main parent low
departs off the east coast. This boundary will serve as a barrier
between cool Canadian air to the north and warm and moist Gulf
air to the south.

There is considerable model disagreement with respect to how
quickly the front lifts back north early next week. Nonetheless,
LREF guidance is consistent with the subtropical ridge building
east into our area by the middle of next week, resulting in mild
late December temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Stratus has eroded along and just to the north of I-40 with VFR
CIGs remaining at only JBR/MKL. Continued erosion and/or
advection of CIGs to the north is expected to reach JBR/MKL near
21z. VFR will continue to prevail through tonight where a new
upper system will bring low-end rain chances (< 30%) to
MEM/MKL/TUP. Coverage appears too low to warrant a TEMPO at this
range. So, we have opted for PROB30 groups for light rain
showers. MVFR CIGs will return alongside the increasing rain
chances at MEM/MKL and will remain through the end of the period
with VFR CIGs at JBR/TUP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1246 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Minimum relative humidity values will increase substantially on
Wednesday as Gulf air moves into the region. A few light showers
will occur Wednesday, followed by high chances of wetting
rainfall on Thursday. A warming trend will begin this weekend and
persist into early next week.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...JAB