724
FXUS64 KTSA 021031
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
531 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

  - Storm chances increase Monday night across northeast OK,
    spreading through the entire area Tuesday. Severe weather is
    possible.

  - Daily shower and storm chances continue most days through the next
    week.

  - Heavy rain is expected at times over the next week, with multiple
    inches of rainfall. This will lead to an increasing flash and
    mainstem river flooding threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Very warm weather continues Monday, with high temperatures again
surging into the mid to upper 80s as southerly flow brings warm and
moist air into the region. An upper level low will begin to impinge
on the area late this evening. CAM guidance shows the potential for
showers and thunderstorms to move into northeast OK this evening as
upper level dynamics improve. For now, the probability of severe
weather is low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

The better upper level dynamics arrive Tuesday with a surface front
also moving in. Forecast soundings show sufficient instability and
wind shear to support some severe weather potential, particularly
Tuesday afternoon or evening. Wind profiles would support fairly
quick upscale growth of any convection, so wind will most likely
be the primary severe hazard, though instances of hail and a
tornado or two are possible. Of additional concern, is very high
PWAT content (exceeding 2"), which is near the climatological max
for this time of year (99th percentile). Considering the amount
of rainfall of late, flood concerns will definitely be on the
rise. EPS EFI for precipitation shows values peaking around 0.8
with some SOT, a definite heavy rain signal. The cold front will
slowly slog south into Wednesday, with rain chances ending behind
the cold front northwest of I-44. Southeast of there, rain chances
will diminish, but not totally end, with a few scattered showers
holding on into Wednesday. High temperatures will only reach the
mid 70s with lows into the upper 50s to mid 60s (warmest south).

Low level flow will reverse Thursday with very humid air surging
back into the area. Meanwhile, upper level flow will become westerly
and strengthen. With plenty of moisture and instability, any minor
upper level wave will have the potential of kicking off showers and
thunderstorms. Model guidance shows just that, with nocturnal rounds
of showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday and again
Friday night into Saturday. By Sunday the flow becomes more
northwesterly, but daily nocturnal MCS activity appears poised to
continue into early next week. Moisture levels will remain elevated,
and the daily heavy rain chances will likely result in flash and
main stem river flood potential. The main uncertainty for this
period is the exact MCS trajectory. The positioning of the upper
level trough to the northeast, or the high to the west, will
ultimately impact how stormy this period is.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

VFR conditions should prevail through the period at all sites. A
decaying line of thunderstorms will approach the NE OK terminals
during the latter 6 hours of the TAF period, covered with a PROB30
featuring MVFR conditions for now. Gusty winds remain expected at
the E OK sites this afternoon into the evening, with potential for
LLWS at BVO as the low level jet increases after midnight. BVO and
the NW AR terminals may still see brief periods of MVFR
visibilities during the first hour or two of the TAF period, given
current observations and satellite indications. Will keep the
TEMPOs at FYV/XNA/ROG and introduce one at BVO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  71  82  62 /   0  30  60  90
FSM   90  70  89  70 /   0  10  10  70
MLC   86  72  85  64 /   0  10  30  90
BVO   88  69  81  58 /   0  40  70  80
FYV   87  68  85  65 /   0  10  20  80
BYV   87  69  86  67 /   0  10  20  70
MKO   87  71  84  64 /   0  10  40  90
MIO   88  71  83  63 /   0  20  50  90
F10   86  72  82  62 /   0  20  40  90
HHW   86  71  86  68 /  10  10  20  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...22