767
FXUS64 KLZK 140542
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1242 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Band 1 and 2 GOES satellite imagery continues to clearly reveal the
circulation of upper low, now centered over south central Missouri.
Convection, generally weak, continues to be associated with this
circulation. The character of the atmosphere across the forecast
area is reflected by precipitable water values in the 90th
percentile of climatological values. Any convection that forms will
be efficient rainfall producers.

The upper low will continue slowly eastward during the rest of this
period. A northwest flow will develop, and small scale disturbances
will move through this flow, promoting additional, mainly weak
convection.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

During the second half of this forecast period, upper level high
pressure will build from the southern rockies into the central
plains.  Surface high pressure will build westward along the gulf
coast. Overall precipitation chances will decrease accordingly.
Above normal afternoon temperatures are expected by the end of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Scattered SHRA/TSRA are expected overnight across the Cntrl third
of AR. Across the N and possibly SW AR, skies are anticipated to
clear out with FG developing. Expecting LIFR/IFR where FG develops and
MVFR around convection, VFR elsewhere. PoPs should decrease near
sunrise, with scattered SHRA/TSRA developing during the afternoon
across Cntrl and Srn AR. Due to low confidence, went with
PROB30`s to account for afternoon convection. Winds should be SW
at around 10 kts or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     86  69  87  71 /  20  10  40  20
Camden AR         88  71  85  71 /  50  30  60  20
Harrison AR       84  67  83  68 /  10  10  40  30
Hot Springs AR    87  71  86  71 /  50  20  50  10
Little Rock   AR  87  72  85  72 /  50  20  50  20
Monticello AR     87  72  84  72 /  60  30  70  20
Mount Ida AR      86  70  84  71 /  50  20  50  20
Mountain Home AR  84  68  85  68 /  10  10  40  30
Newport AR        87  71  89  73 /  20  10  30  20
Pine Bluff AR     87  72  85  72 /  50  20  60  20
Russellville AR   87  71  87  72 /  40  20  50  20
Searcy AR         87  71  87  71 /  40  10  40  20
Stuttgart AR      86  74  87  74 /  60  20  50  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...70