137
FXUS64 KLZK 170516
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1116 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 203 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

-Normal to above normal temperatures throughout the next seven
 days

-Isolated to scattered showers mainly Wednesday, ahead of more
 widespread shower and thunderstorm activity primarily on Thursday

-Return of dry weather conditions for this weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Mostly clear skies early this morning will give way to cloudy
skies later today ahead of a deepening shortwave trough across the
Great Plains. This trough will keep general southerly flow across
the region over the next several days as surface high pressure
centers east of the state.

Weak moisture advection is likely to still spark a few showers
across what looks like southern Arkansas tonight into Wednesday,
although chances for any one location to see these showers remains
somewhat low (10-30%). As the weak shortwave ejects eastward
going into Thursday, a more energetic shortwave amplifying from
the stronger polar jet centered across the US/Canada border will
bring better moisture return ahead of a cold front spreading
across the Plains into the Natural State late Wednesday and into
Thursday. Most of the state should see measurable precipitation,
although deep moisture remains limited (i.e. PWAT`s around 1
inch), thus probabilities of 0.50" (1.00") for this mid to late
week event is generally 30-50% (10-20%), with the best chances for
higher amounts favoring eastern Arkansas.

Dry conditions will commence once again late in the week and
persist into this weekend as surface high pressure builds across
the southeast. Temperatures will be coldest on Friday post-cold
front, as highs hover around normal levels (mid-40 to low 50s).
Temperatures will then warm quickly with highs in the 60s on
Saturday and persisting into early next week. There are even low
to moderate chances (30-50%) for highs even reaching the 70s,
favoring central to southern Arkansas Sunday through early next
week.

Guidance has quite a bit of spread in regards to another wave
late into the weekend and into early next week that could bring
some increasing precipitation chances, but even if that comes to
fruition, chances will still remain low (generally 10-30%) due to
continued lack of deep moisture with any frontal band that would
move across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Expect lowering CIGS and vicinity showers across most TAF sites
during the duration of the forecast period from west to east across
the state. CIGS will lower to as low as IFR flight category along
with VSBY that will lower to MVFR flight category across the
northern, central, and western sites. Expect degraded flight
category to remain through the remainder of the forecast period or
early Thursday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     55  38  58  48 /   0  20  10  40
Camden AR         57  40  55  50 /   0  50  30  30
Harrison AR       62  38  61  49 /   0   0   0  20
Hot Springs AR    53  40  56  49 /   0  40  20  50
Little Rock   AR  57  40  55  49 /   0  30  20  40
Monticello AR     58  42  57  51 /   0  40  40  20
Mount Ida AR      55  41  58  51 /   0  30  10  60
Mountain Home AR  61  36  60  49 /   0   0   0  30
Newport AR        51  39  57  51 /   0  20  10  40
Pine Bluff AR     55  40  56  51 /   0  50  40  30
Russellville AR   59  39  60  51 /   0  10  10  50
Searcy AR         54  37  57  48 /   0  30  20  40
Stuttgart AR      53  40  55  51 /   0  30  30  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74